IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS Predictions
Allsvenskan · Sweden
IFK Goteborg
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
Orgryte IS
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
Match Result
7.2/10Larsson Strike Lifts IFK Goteborg Past Orgryte in Tight Derby
IFK Goteborg edged out Orgryte IS 1-0 at Gamla Ullevi in a fiercely contested Gothenburg derby, thanks to a decisive second-half goal from Sam Larsson. The hosts enjoyed marginally more possession (52%) and peppered the Orgryte goal with 20 shots, but found clear chances hard to come by against a resolute visiting defence. Orgryte, lining up in an adventurous 3-4-3, matched Goteborg for shots on target (4 apiece), but ultimately lacked the clinical edge in the final third. The match was a tactical battle, with Goteborg's 4-4-2 seeking width and crossing opportunities, while Orgryte's wing-backs tried to stretch play. After a cagey first half, the breakthrough arrived in the 61st minute when Sam Larsson found the net, capitalizing on sustained pressure and a flurry of corners. Despite late pressure from Orgryte, Goteborg held firm to secure a vital three points in front of their home supporters.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
Key Moments
61' — Goal
Sam Larsson scores the only goal of the match, giving Goteborg the lead.
68' — Yellow Card
Goteborg pick up their first yellow card as the match heats up.
79' — Yellow Card
A second Goteborg player is booked as Orgryte press for an equalizer.
85' — Corner
Orgryte win a late corner but fail to capitalize as Goteborg clear.
IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg delivered a disciplined and industrious display, making the most of their home advantage. They controlled the tempo for large spells, especially after the break, and generated 20 shots, though only 4 were on target. Their 11 corners reflected their territorial dominance, but they struggled to convert pressure into clear-cut chances until Larsson's breakthrough. Defensively, they were solid, limiting Orgryte to just 4 shots on target and managing the game well after taking the lead.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS showed tactical ambition with a 3-4-3 formation and kept the match competitive throughout. They managed 11 shots and matched Goteborg for shots on target, but struggled to create high-quality chances. Their midfield worked hard to disrupt Goteborg's rhythm, committing 14 fouls, but their attack lacked the spark needed to break down the home defence. Despite a late push, they couldn't find an equalizer, but their defensive structure limited Goteborg to just one goal.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
IFK Goteborg set up in a classic 4-4-2, using their wide players to stretch Orgryte's three-man defence and deliver crosses into the box, as reflected by their 11 corners. Their midfield quartet worked hard to recycle possession and press high, especially after taking the lead. Orgryte IS adopted a 3-4-3, with wing-backs pushing high to provide width, but often found themselves pinned back by Goteborg's pressure. The visitors' midfield double pivot focused on breaking up play, leading to a higher foul count, but struggled to link effectively with their front three. Substitutions appeared to be aimed at injecting fresh legs, but neither side significantly altered their shape. Set pieces were a key battleground, with Goteborg's corners providing their best route to goal. Both defences dealt well with open play, and the match was ultimately decided by a moment of quality from Larsson rather than a tactical overhaul.
Turning Point
Sam Larsson's goal in the 61st minute broke the deadlock and shifted momentum decisively in Goteborg's favor.
Man of the Match
Sam Larsson
Scored the match-winning goal and was a constant threat in attack.
IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS: Match Preview
Both IFK Goteborg and Orgryte IS enter this fixture in the lower reaches of the Allsvenskan, with Goteborg sitting 12th and Orgryte 15th. Goteborg have taken 7 points from their last four league matches at home, while Orgryte have lost seven of nine on their travels, conceding heavily. Both teams are under pressure to distance themselves from the relegation zone, with Orgryte especially desperate for points given their five-point deficit to safety.
Statistically, this is a clash of two of the league's weakest defences: Goteborg concede 2.24 per game (2.75 at home), Orgryte 2.28 (2.67 away). Both sides have been involved in high-scoring games, with 59% and 56% of their matches going over 2.5 goals respectively. Goteborg's attack at home (1.38 goals per game) faces an Orgryte side that has managed just one away clean sheet all season. Set-piece numbers are high, with Goteborg averaging 8 corners per game in their last five, and both sides picking up over a card per match.
The model projects a goal-rich contest, with Goteborg's home attack and Orgryte's away defensive frailty driving the probabilities towards a 2-1 home win. Both teams' tendency to concede, plus Orgryte's ability to score in defeat, makes BTTS and over 2.5 goals plausible. However, Goteborg's slightly better recent form and home advantage tip the balance in their favour.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.75
Expected goals · model says 1.35
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
61%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS that most previews miss.
- 1Orgryte IS have conceded multiple goals in 8 of 9 away matches this season.
- 2IFK Goteborg matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 10 of 17 league games (59%).
- 3Combined, these teams average 11.2 corners per match across their last five games.
Who do you think wins: IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
More Allsvenskan Predictions
The Case For This IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS Prediction
Both sides arrive with bottom-four defensive records and a clear tendency towards high-scoring matches, especially when factoring in home/away splits. IFK Goteborg average 1.29 goals scored and 2.24 conceded per game across the season, but at home their defensive numbers improve, conceding 1.38 per match. Orgryte IS, meanwhile, have lost seven of nine away, shipping 24 goals (2.67 per away game) and scoring just 0.78. Recent form is mixed for both, but Goteborg's home attack (11 goals in 8) and Orgryte's away frailty set the stage for a match with multiple goals and a slight home edge.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Orgryte IS have conceded 24 goals in 9 away matches (2.67 per game), the league's worst away defence.
- →Both teams are in the bottom four for goals conceded per game: Goteborg 2.24, Orgryte 2.28.
Match Context
- →IFK Goteborg have scored in 6 of 8 home matches, averaging 1.38 goals per home game.
🚩 IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.3 corners for IFK Goteborg and 4.8 for Orgryte IS, for an expected total of 11.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (68%). Over 8.5: 78% · Over 10.5: 56%.
How IFK Goteborg and Orgryte IS Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
IFK Goteborglast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Orgryte ISlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
IFK Goteborg's recent form is mixed, with a 'LDWLW' string but two home wins in their last three league matches and a competitive Conference League draw at Gent. Orgryte IS are winless in their last three ('DLL'), conceding eight goals in that span, but did manage a 3-0 away win at AIK earlier in August. Both sides have shown attacking intent but remain defensively fragile.
IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS
The only recent head-to-head saw IFK Goteborg win 3-2 away at Orgryte IS in May, a match that featured five goals and both teams scoring. With just one meeting since Orgryte's promotion, there is little historical trend to draw from, but the high scoreline fits both teams' current defensive profiles.
IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
1
IFK Goteborg wins
0
Draws
0
Orgryte IS wins
Things to Watch: IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so no value or edge calculations are possible.
- ⚠️Both teams have shown high variance in recent results, increasing scoreline uncertainty.
- ⚠️Only one recent head-to-head, limiting historical matchup insight.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
IFK Goteborg 2–1 Orgryte ISThe model favours IFK Goteborg to edge a high-scoring encounter, projecting a 2-1 win driven by Orgryte's league-worst away defensive record (2.67 goals conceded per away game). The main risk is Goteborg's own defensive instability, which could allow Orgryte to snatch a point or more if they convert their chances.
IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS: Common Questions
Who will win IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS?
The model gives IFK Goteborg a 44% chance to win, with a 32% probability of a draw and Orgryte IS at 24%. Goteborg's stronger home record and Orgryte's poor away defence are key factors.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS?
There's a 59% probability of both teams scoring, as both sides average over 2 goals conceded per game and have seen BTTS in 2 of Goteborg's and 3 of Orgryte's last five matches.
How likely is over 2.5 goals in IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 62%, supported by both teams' season-long over 2.5 rates (Goteborg 59%, Orgryte 56%) and their recent high-scoring games.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 23 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.