Iran vs Grenada Prediction
Iran Heavy Favourites Against Grenada in World Cup 2026 Friendly Clash
International Friendly · World
Iran
AI Predicted Score
2 - 0
Grenada
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 2.80
Expected goals · model says 0.40
Over 2.5 Goals
62%
BTTS: Yes
31%
Likely Scores
2-0 · 3-0 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Iran vs Grenada Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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The Case For This Iran vs Grenada Prediction
Iran enters this friendly against Grenada as overwhelming favourites, with the model assigning them an 86% chance of victory. The gulf in quality is stark: Iran's Elo rating of 1760 (31st in the world) dwarfs Grenada's 1098 (174th), and the expected scoreline is a comfortable 2-0 for the hosts. Iran's attacking core, led by Mehdi Taremi and Alireza Jahanbakhsh, is expected to find plenty of opportunities, while Grenada's recent form and lack of data suggest a struggle to create chances. The analytics highlight Iran's blend of strong finishing and chance creation, further boosted by recent attacking momentum (1.18x multiplier). Grenada, meanwhile, have struggled both offensively and defensively in recent matches, and the model's final expected goals line reflects this: 2.78 for Iran versus just 0.41 for Grenada. With Iran likely to control proceedings, a clean sheet for the hosts is the most probable outcome.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Iran's attack boosted by 1.18x recent-form momentum
- →Grenada's attack suppressed (0.865x momentum, 0 goals in last 2 matches)
Match Context
- →Massive Elo gap: Iran +662 points over Grenada
- →Model expects Iran to score 2.78 goals, Grenada just 0.41
- →Top correct scorelines: 2-0 (16%), 3-0 (15%), 1-0 (11%)
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
2.62 · 0.15
From xG
1.05 · 1.18
Blended
2.78 · 0.41
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Iran attacking form lifts their goals ×1.18; Grenada's cold attack trims their goals ×0.86; Grenada's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.18.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Iran goals, columns = Grenada goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
15.9%
3-0
14.7%
1-0
11.4%
How the Model Reached This
The prediction starts with a huge Elo baseline advantage for Iran (+662 points), translating to an expected score share of 0.98 for Iran and just 0.02 for Grenada. From there, the model incorporates attacking and defensive factors: Iran's attack is rated at 0.809 (above average), with strong finishing (1.2x) and solid chance quality (0.88x), while Grenada's lack of data and lower base factors reflect their limited threat. Recent-form momentum is then applied: Iran's attack is currently hot (1.18x), while Grenada's is cold (0.865x) and their defense is leaking (1.18x). This shifts the blended expected goals to 2.78 for Iran and 0.41 for Grenada. The final step is a Poisson model, which projects the most likely scorelines (2-0, 3-0, 1-0) and assigns an 86% win probability to Iran, with a 68% chance of a clean sheet.
More Friendlies Predictions
Iran vs Grenada Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Iranlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Grenadalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Iran come into this match in strong form, winning four of their last five and averaging 2.6 goals scored per game with three clean sheets. Their attack has been particularly effective, failing to score in none of their last five. Grenada, by contrast, have lost four straight, scoring just 0.8 goals per game and conceding 2.8, with no clean sheets in their last five. Data for Grenada is sparse, but the recent trend is clear.
Iran vs Grenada — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.6 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.8 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Iran vs Grenada
There is no recent head-to-head record between Iran and Grenada. This is a rare meeting between the two nations, so historical precedent offers little guidance for this fixture.
Iran vs Grenada Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Iran wins
1
Draws
0
Grenada wins
Things to Watch: Iran vs Grenada
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at present; unable to assess value.
- ⚠️International friendlies can feature experimental lineups and variable motivation.
- ⚠️Grenada data is limited, increasing model uncertainty for their projections.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Iran vs Grenada: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 9 June 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.