Iran vs New Zealand Prediction
Iran Favoured Over New Zealand in World Cup Opener at SoFi Stadium
FIFA World Cup 2026 · World
Iran
Full Time
2 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 0
New Zealand
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
Match Result
7.5/10Iran and New Zealand Serve Up Four-Goal Thriller in World Cup Opener
Iran and New Zealand played out a pulsating 2-2 draw at SoFi Stadium in their opening World Cup fixture, with both sides showing attacking intent and resilience. New Zealand struck first through Chris Wood in the 7th minute, setting the tone for a lively encounter. Iran responded with a well-taken goal by Mehdi Taremi just past the half-hour mark, ensuring the teams went into the break level. The second half saw momentum swing back and forth. New Zealand regained the lead in the 54th minute, only for Iran to hit back ten minutes later through Shahriar Moghanlou. Both teams created chances—New Zealand testing Alireza Beiranvand with 8 shots on target, while Iran pressed forward with 17 total attempts—but neither could find a decisive winner. The result leaves both teams with plenty of positives, but also questions to answer as the group stage unfolds.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 0
Actual
2 - 2
Key Moments
7' — Goal
Chris Wood gives New Zealand an early lead with a composed finish.
32' — Goal
Mehdi Taremi equalizes for Iran, capping a period of sustained pressure.
54' — Goal
New Zealand retake the lead, capitalizing on a defensive lapse.
64' — Goal
Shahriar Moghanlou restores parity for Iran with a well-placed strike.
73' — Yellow Card
Iran pick up the game's only booking as tensions rise in midfield.
Iran
Iran showed determination and attacking flair, particularly after falling behind early. Their 4-4-2 formation allowed them to create 17 shots, though only 4 found the target. Mehdi Taremi and Shahriar Moghanlou were clinical when chances came, but the team struggled to contain New Zealand’s forward play and allowed 8 shots on target. A single yellow card reflected a largely disciplined defensive display, but lapses at the back twice left them trailing.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
New Zealand
New Zealand impressed with their positive approach, controlling 52% possession and registering 8 shots on target from 14 attempts. Chris Wood’s early strike set the tone, and the team’s 4-2-3-1 formation allowed for fluid movement in midfield and attack. Despite twice taking the lead, defensive frailties and Iran’s persistence denied them a winning start. The All Whites managed to keep their discipline with no bookings and will be encouraged by their attacking output.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Iran lined up in a traditional 4-4-2, seeking to use width and direct play to feed their strikers, Taremi and Moghanlou. While this provided attacking numbers, it sometimes left their midfield exposed to New Zealand’s more fluid 4-2-3-1. The All Whites used their extra midfielder to control possession and transition quickly, with Sarpreet Singh and Elijah Just linking well with Chris Wood. Both sides pressed high in spells, but New Zealand’s discipline and Iran’s directness led to an open, end-to-end contest. Set pieces were not a major factor, with New Zealand earning just one corner all match.
Turning Point
Moghanlou’s equalizer in the 64th minute shifted momentum and ensured both teams would settle for a point.
Man of the Match
Chris Wood
Led the line superbly, scored early, and was a constant threat to the Iranian defence.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.85
Expected goals · model says 0.75
Over 2.5 Goals
48%
BTTS: Yes
44%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 2-0 · 1-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Iran vs New Zealand Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Iran vs New Zealand?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
The Case For This Iran vs New Zealand Prediction
Iran enters this World Cup group stage clash against New Zealand as clear favourites, backed by a significant Elo rating advantage and strong recent form. The model projects a low-scoring affair, with Iran’s disciplined defence and superior attacking options tipped to edge out a New Zealand side that has struggled for results and goals in recent outings. With a blended expected goals line of 1.85 for Iran versus just 0.73 for New Zealand, the analytics suggest Iran will control much of the play. The most likely scorelines are 1-0 or 2-0 to Iran, reflecting both teams’ finishing profiles and the defensive suppression factors at play. New Zealand’s recent leakiness at the back and lack of attacking momentum further tilt the probabilities in Iran’s favour.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
xG factor — Iran 0.81× · New Zealand 0.76×
- →Iran’s attack is in strong form (momentum multiplier 1.18), while New Zealand’s is cold (0.92)
Defence
Suppression — Iran 1.10× · New Zealand 1.25×
- →New Zealand’s defence has been leaky recently (leak multiplier 1.18)
Match Context
- →Iran holds a +175 Elo rating edge (1760 vs 1585)
- →Iran’s final expected goals (λ) is 1.85, New Zealand’s is 0.73
- →Model gives Iran a 64% win probability; most likely scoreline is 1-0
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
xG Attack Strength
Top-11 expected-goals output, adjusted for finishing efficiency and chance quality. 1.00× is the tournament median.
Iran
0.81×Top-11 xG
69
Finishing
1.20×
Chance qual.
0.88×
- M. Taremi F34.5 xG
- A. Jahanbakhsh F8.7 xG
- A. Sayyad M7.2 xG
- D. Eckert Ayensa F5.3 xG
- A. Gholizadeh M5.1 xG
New Zealand
0.76×Top-11 xG
53
Finishing
1.20×
Chance qual.
0.88×
- B. Waine F8.0 xG
- L. Bayliss M6.6 xG
- E. Just M6.5 xG
- C. McCowatt M6.2 xG
- L. Rogerson M5.2 xG
Defensive Suppression
Defender & midfield ball-winning (tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks). Higher = more suppression of the opponent's attack.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
1.65 · 0.95
From xG
0.84 · 0.90
Blended
1.85 · 0.72
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Iran attacking form lifts their goals ×1.18; New Zealand's cold attack trims their goals ×0.92; New Zealand's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.18.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Iran goals, columns = New Zealand goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.1%
2-0
13.0%
1-1
10.2%
How the Model Reached This
The model begins with an Elo baseline, where Iran’s rating of 1760 dwarfs New Zealand’s 1585, translating to an expected score split of 0.73 for Iran and 0.27 for New Zealand. This sets a strong foundational edge for Iran. Next, the model incorporates each side’s attacking and defensive factors, including top-11 xG, finishing ability, and chance quality. Iran’s attack is rated at a factor of 0.81, with key players like M. Taremi and A. Jahanbakhsh driving their xG numbers, while New Zealand lags at 0.76. Defensively, Iran suppresses opponents more effectively (1.10 vs 1.25). Recent-form momentum is then applied: Iran’s attack multiplier of 1.18 boosts their expected output, while New Zealand’s attack is dampened (0.92) and their defence worsens (leak 1.18). These inputs are blended into per-side expected goals (λ: Iran 1.85, New Zealand 0.73), and a Poisson model is used to simulate exact scorelines. This results in a 64% win probability for Iran, with 1-0 and 2-0 the most likely outcomes.
More World Cup Predictions
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Iran vs New Zealand
Comparing the model’s probabilities to the available bookmaker odds, the standout value lies in the 'Iran to win' market. The model gives Iran a 64% chance (implied odds ~1.56), while bookmakers are offering 1.33, which is below the model’s fair price—so no value there. The draw and New Zealand win odds are also shorter than the model’s probabilities would suggest. The best value appears in the 'Both Teams to Score: No' market, where the model estimates a 56.6% chance (implied odds ~1.77), but bookmakers are offering just 1.14, which is not value. No positive expected value bets are identified at current odds.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Iran vs New Zealand Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Iranlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
New Zealandlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Iran comes into the match in excellent form, winning four of their last five and averaging 2.6 goals scored with just 0.6 conceded per game. They have kept three clean sheets in that span and have not failed to score in any recent match. In contrast, New Zealand has lost four of their last five, averaging just 1 goal scored and 2.2 conceded, with three matches failing to find the net. International form data can be sparse, but the recent trends are clear.
Iran vs New Zealand — Last 1 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.6 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
🚩 Iran vs New Zealand Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Iran and 4.2 for New Zealand, for an expected total of 8.9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (60%). Over 8.5: 53% · Over 10.5: 28%.
What History Says: Iran vs New Zealand
There is no recent head-to-head data available for these two sides, as they rarely, if ever, meet in competitive fixtures. This adds a layer of unpredictability, but the model’s projections are grounded in current team strength and form.
Iran vs New Zealand Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Iran wins
1
Draws
0
New Zealand wins
Things to Watch: Iran vs New Zealand
- ⚠️No positive expected value bets at current bookmaker odds.
- ⚠️International form data can be sparse; projections may be less robust than for club football.
- ⚠️Head-to-head history is absent, adding some uncertainty.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Iran vs New Zealand: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 5 June 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.