Jamshedpur vs ATK Mohun Bagan Predictions
Indian Super League · India
Jamshedpur
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 0 - 2
ATK Mohun Bagan
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
@ 4.5(+1% edge)
Match Result
6.8/10Late Drama as Jamshedpur Snatch Draw Against ATK Mohun Bagan
A dramatic finale at the JRD Tata Sports Complex saw Jamshedpur rescue a point with a stoppage-time equalizer, holding ATK Mohun Bagan to a 1-1 draw. The visitors had taken a deserved lead early on, controlling much of the game and registering nine shots to the hosts’ two. However, their inability to convert dominance into a decisive second goal proved costly. ATK Mohun Bagan looked to have done enough after their 15th-minute opener, but Jamshedpur’s resilience paid off in the dying moments. Despite struggling to create chances for most of the match, the home side capitalized on a late opportunity to send the home fans into raptures and deny the visitors all three points.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
0 - 2
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/1 hit
Key Moments
15' — Goal
Jamie MacLaren puts ATK Mohun Bagan ahead after a well-worked move.
38' — Yellow Card
ATK Mohun Bagan's Tom Aldred booked for a tactical foul.
67' — Yellow Card
Anirudh Thapa receives a yellow for dissent.
74' — Yellow Card
Jamshedpur's Pronay Halder cautioned for a late challenge.
90' — Goal
Raphaël Messi Bouli scores a dramatic equalizer for Jamshedpur.
Jamshedpur
Jamshedpur struggled to impose themselves for much of the contest, managing just two shots and failing to hit the target until their late equalizer. Their 48% possession reflected a side often chasing the game, but they remained disciplined defensively and limited ATK Mohun Bagan to only two shots on target. The hosts’ perseverance was rewarded with a last-gasp goal, salvaging a draw from a match in which they were second best for long spells.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
ATK Mohun Bagan
ATK Mohun Bagan controlled proceedings for large stretches, enjoying 52% possession and outshooting their hosts 9-2. Their early goal gave them a platform to dictate the tempo, and they looked comfortable for much of the encounter. However, despite creating more chances and winning six corners, they failed to put the game beyond doubt. Two yellow cards in a physical second half hinted at growing frustration as the hosts pressed for a late equalizer, which ultimately arrived to deny them victory.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, aiming for midfield solidity and attacking width. ATK Mohun Bagan’s double pivot of Apuia and Anirudh Thapa allowed them to control possession and transition quickly, with Liston Colaco and Manvir Singh providing width. Jamshedpur, meanwhile, sat deeper, relying on the physical presence of Raphaël Messi Bouli up front and hoping to exploit transitions. The home side’s lack of attacking impetus was evident in their meager shot count, but their defensive shape frustrated the visitors for much of the second half. Substitutions in the latter stages injected fresh legs, but neither side altered their formation significantly, with Jamshedpur’s late push yielding the equalizer.
Turning Point
Raphaël Messi Bouli’s stoppage-time equalizer, which snatched a draw against the run of play.
Man of the Match
Raphaël Messi Bouli
His 90th-minute goal was decisive in earning Jamshedpur a hard-fought point.
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Expected goals · model says 0.60
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
BTTS: Yes
36%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 0-2 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Jamshedpur vs ATK Mohun Bagan Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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Where the Model Sees Value: Jamshedpur vs ATK Mohun Bagan(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: Yes@ 4.5
Model probability (0.23) is slightly higher than implied probability (0.222) for BTTS 'yes'; while the main expectation is 'no', the odds for 'yes' offer a very marginal value edge for a small stake.
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The Case For This Jamshedpur vs ATK Mohun Bagan Prediction
ATK Mohun Bagan arrive as strong favorites, boasting a much higher attacking output (2.4 goals/game last 5) and a solid defensive record. Jamshedpur are unbeaten at home this season but have scored just 1 goal per home match and have yet to concede at home. H2H history is mixed but recent trends favor the away side. Expect ATK Mohun Bagan to control possession and create more chances, with Jamshedpur likely to defend deep and look for rare counter-attacks. Goals may be limited, with the away side more likely to keep a clean sheet.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →ATK Mohun Bagan average 2.4 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded per game in their last 5 matches.
- →Jamshedpur have not conceded a goal at home this season (3 home games, 3 clean sheets).
- →Jamshedpur's attack is limited (1 goal per home game), while ATK Mohun Bagan's defense is among the best in the league.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries for either side.
Match Context
- →ATK Mohun Bagan have dominated H2H in recent years (5 wins in last 10), including away wins.
- →Both teams are in the top 3 and level on points, so motivation is high.
🚩 Jamshedpur vs ATK Mohun Bagan Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 3.8 corners for Jamshedpur and 8.2 for ATK Mohun Bagan, for an expected total of 12. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (76%). Over 8.5: 84% · Over 10.5: 65%.
How Jamshedpur and ATK Mohun Bagan Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Jamshedpur vs ATK Mohun Bagan Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Jamshedpurlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
ATK Mohun Baganlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Jamshedpur vs ATK Mohun Bagan — Last 8 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
What History Says: Jamshedpur vs ATK Mohun Bagan
Jamshedpur vs ATK Mohun Bagan Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Jamshedpur wins
3
Draws
5
ATK Mohun Bagan wins
Things to Watch: Jamshedpur vs ATK Mohun Bagan
- ⚠️Small sample size for away form: ATK Mohun Bagan have played only 1 away game (0-0 draw), so away attack/defense may be less reliable.
- ⚠️Jamshedpur's home defense is untested against top-tier attacks.
- ⚠️No shots, possession, or set piece data for Jamshedpur reduces confidence in set piece/corner predictions.
- ⚠️Odds on most markets are very tight with little value.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Jamshedpur vs ATK Mohun Bagan: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 3 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.