Kerala Blasters vs Mohammedan Predictions
Indian Super League · India
Kerala Blasters
Full Time
3 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 0
Mohammedan
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 4(+16% edge)
Match Result
7.8/10Kerala Blasters Outclass 10-Man Mohammedan in 3-1 Kochi Triumph
Kerala Blasters delivered a commanding performance at the Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium, dispatching Mohammedan 3-1 in an entertaining Indian Super League clash. Despite conceding first in the 42nd minute, the Blasters responded with three unanswered goals, capitalizing on their numerical advantage after Mohammedan were reduced to ten men. The home side dominated possession with 64% and peppered the opposition goal with 15 shots, 8 of which were on target. Mohammedan showed early resilience, taking a surprise lead against the run of play, but struggled to cope with Kerala’s relentless pressure, especially after their red card. The Blasters’ midfield orchestrated the comeback, with goals in the 44th, 59th, and 74th minutes sealing a deserved victory. Kerala’s tactical flexibility and attacking intent proved too much for a Mohammedan side that faded as the match wore on.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
2 - 0
Actual
3 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
42' — Goal
Thokchom Adison Singh gives Mohammedan a surprise lead against the run of play.
44' — Goal
Kerala Blasters respond instantly, leveling the match before halftime.
59' — Goal
Kerala Blasters take the lead, capitalizing on their dominance.
74' — Goal
Kerala Blasters extend their advantage, effectively sealing the win.
Second half' — Red Card
Mohammedan reduced to 10 men, shifting momentum decisively in Kerala’s favor.
Kerala Blasters
Kerala Blasters started brightly, controlling the tempo with a fluid 3-5-2 formation that allowed their midfielders to dictate play. Even after falling behind, they maintained composure, quickly restoring parity and then pulling away in the second half. Their attacking play was incisive, with 8 shots on target from 15 attempts, and the wing-backs provided consistent width and service. Defensively, the Blasters were largely untroubled, conceding just one shot on target. The midfield trio of Freddy Lallawmawma, Vibin Mohanan, and Nihal Sudheesh was instrumental in both ball retention and transition, while forwards Franchu and Victor Bertomeu were constant threats.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Mohammedan
Mohammedan began with a compact 4-4-2 setup, absorbing pressure and looking to break quickly. Their resilience paid off briefly when they took a shock lead in the 42nd minute, but their inability to retain possession (just 36%) and create meaningful chances (only 1 shot on target) undermined their efforts. The match turned decisively after a red card left them a man down, exposing their defensive frailties. Despite some determined defending and early discipline, the team struggled to contain Kerala’s waves of attack and failed to mount a comeback.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Kerala Blasters’ 3-5-2 formation allowed them to overload the midfield, dominate possession, and stretch Mohammedan’s back line with overlapping wing-backs. Their pressing forced turnovers, and the central midfielders controlled the tempo, recycling possession and launching attacks from deep. The Blasters’ ability to maintain width and switch play was crucial in breaking down Mohammedan’s initial defensive block. Mohammedan’s 4-4-2 aimed for compactness and quick counters, but their midfield was overrun, especially after going down to ten men. The red card forced them into a reactive posture, with little attacking ambition and increasing defensive gaps that Kerala exploited with incisive passing and movement.
Turning Point
The red card to Mohammedan early in the second half, which left them unable to resist Kerala’s sustained pressure and led to two further goals.
Man of the Match
Franchu
Scored a vital goal, led the line with flair, and was central to Kerala’s attacking threat throughout.
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Expected goals · model says 1.80
Expected goals · model says 0.55
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS: Yes
35%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 2-0 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Kerala Blasters vs Mohammedan Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Kerala Blasters vs Mohammedan?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Kerala Blasters vs Mohammedan(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 4
Model probability for over 2.5 goals (0.41) is significantly higher than the implied probability from odds (0.25), and both teams show recent BTTS and over 2.5 trends.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes@ 4.5
BTTS has landed in 3 of the last 5 for Mohammedan and 4 of 5 for Kerala Blasters; the odds provide a strong value edge.
More Indian Super League Predictions
The Case For This Kerala Blasters vs Mohammedan Prediction
Kerala Blasters enter this fixture in strong form, riding a three-match winning streak and showing improved attacking output at home. Mohammedan, winless all season and struggling defensively, face a daunting task against a side that has dominated their recent head-to-head meetings. Expect Kerala Blasters to control possession and create more chances, with the potential for multiple goals if they convert efficiently.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Kerala Blasters' last 5: WWWDW, scoring 2.0 goals per game and conceding just 0.8.
- →Mohammedan winless in 11, with 26 goals conceded and only 7 scored.
- →Mohammedan's away record: 0W 3D 6L, 22 goals conceded in 9 away matches.
Match Context
- →Kerala Blasters have won all 3 previous H2H meetings, including two by multi-goal margins.
- →Recent matches for both sides show a moderate over 2.5 and BTTS trend.
🚩 Kerala Blasters vs Mohammedan Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.4 corners for Kerala Blasters and 4.6 for Mohammedan, for an expected total of 9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 54% · Over 10.5: 29%.
How Kerala Blasters and Mohammedan Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Kerala Blasters vs Mohammedan Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Kerala Blasterslast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Mohammedanlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Kerala Blasters are peaking at the right time, winning four of their last five and scoring multiple goals in each of their last three. In contrast, Mohammedan remain winless this season, with three draws and two losses in their last five, and have struggled to keep opponents out, conceding 1.4 goals per game recently.
Kerala Blasters vs Mohammedan — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: Kerala Blasters vs Mohammedan
The head-to-head history is one-sided, with Kerala Blasters winning all three previous encounters, including two comfortable home victories (3-1 and 3-0). Mohammedan have yet to take a point from this fixture and have struggled to score more than once per game against Kerala.
Kerala Blasters vs Mohammedan Head-to-Head History
Last 3 meetings between these sides
3
Kerala Blasters wins
0
Draws
0
Mohammedan wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Kerala Blasters vs Mohammedan
Bookmaker odds heavily favor Kerala Blasters, but the model finds value in the over 2.5 goals and BTTS markets, where the probabilities are underestimated. The 'over 2.5' and 'BTTS yes' both show positive expected value, likely due to both teams' recent goal trends and defensive vulnerabilities.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Kerala Blasters vs Mohammedan
- ⚠️Kerala Blasters' season clean sheet rate is low (8.3%), so a Mohammedan goal is not impossible.
- ⚠️Mohammedan have drawn 3 of last 5 away, showing some defensive resilience.
- ⚠️Over 2.5 and BTTS bets carry risk due to both teams' inconsistency in attack.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups can change last minute.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Kerala Blasters vs Mohammedan: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.