Khenchela vs ES Setif Predictions
Ligue 1 · Algeria
Khenchela
AI Predicted Score
0 - 1
ES Setif
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Khenchela vs ES Setif: Match Preview
Khenchela approach this fixture sitting 13th, with just one win and three goals from six matches, and a current streak of two defeats. Their home record is marginally better, but a 0-3 loss to JS Kabylie last time out exposed a lack of attacking threat. ES Setif, 8th in the table, have shown more offensive promise with nine goals in seven matches, including a recent 2-1 away win at ASO Chlef, but their away scoring remains modest at two in three games.
The statistical matchup is defined by low scoring rates: Khenchela average 0.5 goals for and 1.0 against per game, with 83% of their matches finishing under 2.5 goals. ES Setif's away games are similarly tight, with just four goals in total across three fixtures. Both sides have managed only one clean sheet in their last five, but Khenchela have failed to score in three of those, while ES Setif have scored in four. Discipline is a potential subplot, with both teams averaging close to two yellow cards per match recently.
Given these underlying rates, the model projects a low-event contest, with ES Setif's marginally higher attacking output giving them a slight edge. However, the most probable outcomes are a narrow away win or a draw, with the 0-1 and 0-0 scorelines most likely. The low goal environment is reinforced by both teams' season-long under 2.5 goal percentages.
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Expected goals · model says 0.70
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
23%
BTTS: Yes
31%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Khenchela vs ES Setif Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Khenchela vs ES Setif that most previews miss.
- 1Khenchela's matches have produced under 2.5 goals in five of six league games this season (16.7% over 2.5).
- 2ES Setif's three away matches have seen just four total goals, with neither side scoring more than once in any of those games.
- 3Across the last eight H2H meetings, five have finished with one or no goals for at least one side.
Who do you think wins: Khenchela vs ES Setif?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Khenchela vs ES Setif(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both sides average just 1.0 goal conceded per game this season, with Khenchela matches going under 2.5 in 5 of 6 (16.7% over 2.5) and ES Setif away games producing only 4 total goals in 3 outings.
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Match Result: Draw
The model assigns a 41% probability to the draw, with both teams exhibiting low scoring rates and defensive solidity, especially in Khenchela's home fixtures (3 goals scored, 4 conceded in 4 home games).
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More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This Khenchela vs ES Setif Prediction
This fixture projects as a low-scoring contest between two sides whose season-long rates point to defensive caution and limited attacking output, especially from Khenchela. ES Setif's slightly superior away form and attacking numbers tilt the balance, but the overall environment is defined by low goal expectancy.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Khenchela average just 0.5 goals scored per match this season, with three scoreless outings in their last five.
Defence
- →ES Setif have scored nine and conceded seven in seven matches, but only two scored and two conceded in three away games.
Match Context
- →Both teams' matches go under 2.5 goals at a combined rate of 70% (Khenchela 83%, ES Setif 57%).
How Khenchela and ES Setif Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Khenchela vs ES Setif Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Khenchelalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
ES Setiflast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Khenchela have struggled for momentum, losing three of their last five and scoring just once in that span. ES Setif, in contrast, have lost only once in their last five, picking up two wins and showing more attacking intent, particularly in their 5-1 home win over CS Constantine.
Khenchela vs ES Setif — Last 7 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
What History Says: Khenchela vs ES Setif
The head-to-head record is balanced, with Khenchela holding a slight edge in recent meetings at home. However, only two of the last eight encounters have seen more than three goals, and several have finished with just one team scoring.
Khenchela vs ES Setif Head-to-Head History
Last 8 meetings between these sides
4
Khenchela wins
1
Draws
3
ES Setif wins
Things to Watch: Khenchela vs ES Setif
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value assessment is limited.
- ⚠️Absence of shot, possession, and set piece data reduces confidence in secondary markets.
- ⚠️Recent form sample sizes are small (6-7 matches per team), increasing variance risk.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Khenchela 0–1 ES SetifThe model projects a 0-1 ES Setif win, driven by Khenchela's league-low scoring rate of 0.5 goals per game and ES Setif's slightly more reliable attack. The likeliest way this goes wrong is if Khenchela find an early goal at home, forcing a more open game than their season averages suggest.
Khenchela vs ES Setif: Common Questions
Who will win Khenchela vs ES Setif?
ES Setif are favoured with a 37% win probability, while the draw is nearly as likely at 41%. Khenchela's low scoring rate and recent home struggles make them the underdog at 22%.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Khenchela vs ES Setif?
Under 2.5 goals is strongly favoured at 73%, with both teams averaging just 1.0 goal conceded per game and Khenchela's matches going under in five of six this season.
Are both teams likely to score in this match?
Both teams to score is rated at just 31%, as Khenchela have failed to score in three of their last five and ES Setif's away games have been low-scoring.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Khenchela vs ES Setif: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 31 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.