Kosovo vs Andorra Prediction
Kosovo Heavy Favourites Against Andorra in Pristina Friendly Clash
International Friendly · World
Kosovo
AI Predicted Score
2 - 0
Andorra
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 2.30
Expected goals · model says 0.55
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
BTTS: Yes
38%
Likely Scores
2-0 · 1-0 · 3-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Kosovo vs Andorra Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Kosovo vs Andorra?
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The Case For This Kosovo vs Andorra Prediction
Kosovo host Andorra in Pristina for a Friendly International where the analytical model sees a clear gap in quality. With a massive Elo advantage of 644 points (Kosovo 1721, Andorra 1077), Kosovo are projected to dominate, reflected in a commanding 77% win probability. The model’s blended expected-goals line stands at 2.30 for Kosovo and just 0.53 for Andorra, suggesting a one-sided affair. The most likely scorelines are 2-0, 1-0, and 3-0, all favouring the hosts. While Kosovo’s recent form has been mixed, their attack momentum is slightly positive, and Andorra’s attack has struggled, averaging just 0.4 goals per game in their last five. The model expects Kosovo to control proceedings, with Andorra’s chances of an upset rated very low.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Kosovo’s attack momentum slightly positive (1.08x), Andorra’s attack underperforming (0.85x)
Match Context
- →Elo rating gap of 644 points strongly favours Kosovo
- →Kosovo’s final expected goals: 2.30 vs Andorra’s 0.53
- →Model gives Kosovo a 77% win probability, Andorra just 7%
- →Top correct score probabilities: 2-0 (16%), 1-0 (14%), 3-0 (12%)
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
2.59 · 0.15
From xG
1.30 · 1.30
Blended
2.30 · 0.53
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Kosovo attacking form lifts their goals ×1.08; Andorra's cold attack trims their goals ×0.85.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Kosovo goals, columns = Andorra goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
15.6%
1-0
13.5%
3-0
11.9%
How the Model Reached This
The model begins with a massive Elo baseline edge for Kosovo (+644 points), which sets a high expectation for the home side’s performance. This Elo gap translates to Kosovo being heavy favourites before any other factors are considered. Next, the model would usually adjust for attacking and defensive strengths using recent xG and top-11 player data, but for this match, detailed player-level and xG data is sparse. Instead, it relies more heavily on the Elo-derived expected goals, slightly blended with available xG baselines. Kosovo’s final expected goals (λ) after applying momentum adjustments is 2.30, while Andorra’s is just 0.53. Kosovo’s recent attack form (1.08x momentum) marginally boosts their scoring expectation, while Andorra’s attack is slightly suppressed (0.85x). These λ values are then run through a Poisson model to generate scoreline probabilities, which heavily favour Kosovo for a clean-sheet win.
More Friendlies Predictions
Kosovo vs Andorra Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Kosovolast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Andorralast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Kosovo’s recent form is mixed (LLWDW), with 7 points from their last 5 matches and a slight positive attack momentum. They have averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game in that stretch. Andorra, meanwhile, have struggled for goals, failing to score in 4 of their last 5 and averaging just 0.4 goals per match, though they have kept 2 clean sheets. Both sides have limited recent high-level international data, so momentum is only a minor factor in the model.
Kosovo vs Andorra — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
🚩 Kosovo vs Andorra Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Kosovo and 4.2 for Andorra, for an expected total of 8.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (67%). Over 8.5: 46% · Over 10.5: 22%.
What History Says: Kosovo vs Andorra
Kosovo and Andorra have met twice before, both in Euro 2024 qualification. Kosovo won 3-0 away in October 2023, while the reverse fixture in Pristina ended 1-1 in March 2023. The small sample suggests Kosovo are the stronger side, but Andorra have shown they can frustrate the hosts on occasion.
Kosovo vs Andorra Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
1
Kosovo wins
1
Draws
0
Andorra wins
Things to Watch: Kosovo vs Andorra
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at the time of writing, so no value bets can be recommended.
- ⚠️International friendlies can be unpredictable due to squad rotations and experimental lineups.
- ⚠️Sparse player-level and xG data for both sides increases model uncertainty.
- ⚠️Recent international form is limited, especially for Andorra.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Kosovo vs Andorra: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 5 June 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.