Larisa vs Panetolikos Predictions
Super League 1 ยท Greece
Larisa
Full Time
1 - 2
AI predicted 0 - 1
Panetolikos
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 1.7(+13% edge)
Match Result
6.8/10Panetolikos Edge Past 10-Man Larisa in Hard-Fought Away Victory
Panetolikos claimed a crucial 2-1 away win over Larisa at Alcazar Stadium, capitalizing on a second-half red card to the hosts and some clinical finishing. Despite Larisa edging possession (52%) and registering more shots (13 to 7), the visitors made their chances count, striking through Youssouph Badji in the 34th minute and Alexandru Mฤศan in the 58th. Larisa mounted a late rally, pulling one back in the 84th minute, but their efforts were ultimately undone by their numerical disadvantage and Panetolikos' disciplined defense. The match was a tense affair, with both sides combative in midfield and a total of five yellow cards and one red shown. Larisa's 3-5-2 formation allowed them to control spells of the game, but Panetolikos' 4-1-4-1 shape proved effective in transition. The turning point arrived with the home side's dismissal, as Panetolikos managed the game smartly to secure all three points.
๐ AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
0 - 1
Actual
1 - 2
๐ฐ Bet Results0/3 hit
Key Moments
34' โ Goal
Youssouph Badji puts Panetolikos ahead with a well-taken finish.
58' โ Goal
Alexandru Mฤศan doubles the visitors' lead, capitalizing on a swift attack.
โ' โ Red Card
Larisa reduced to 10 men, shifting the momentum firmly to Panetolikos.
84' โ Goal
Leandro Garate pulls one back for Larisa, setting up a tense finale.
Larisa
Larisa showed plenty of ambition, dictating the tempo for long stretches and creating more opportunities in front of goal. Their 13 shots and 52% possession reflected their intent, but a lack of clinical edge and a costly red card undermined their efforts. The late goal in the 84th minute sparked hope, but the numerical disadvantage proved too much to overcome. Defensively, Larisa looked vulnerable during key moments, conceding twice to a Panetolikos side that was efficient rather than dominant. Their midfield worked hard, but the team struggled to recover after going down to 10 men.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Panetolikos
Panetolikos delivered a disciplined and efficient away performance, making the most of their limited opportunities. Despite having less of the ball (48% possession) and fewer shots, they were clinical in front of goal, converting two of their three shots on target. Their 4-1-4-1 formation provided defensive solidity and allowed them to strike on the break. The visitors managed the game well after Larisa's red card, absorbing pressure and limiting clear chances. Their ability to capitalize on key moments ultimately secured a valuable three points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Larisa's 3-5-2 system allowed them to dominate possession and push wing-backs high, but they struggled to break down Panetolikos' compact 4-1-4-1 defensive block. The hosts' midfield trio circulated the ball well, but their forwards were often isolated against a disciplined back line. Panetolikos, meanwhile, focused on absorbing pressure and hitting on the counter, with their wide midfielders supporting lone striker Youssouph Badji. Substitutions and the red card forced Larisa to adjust, but Panetolikos' tactical discipline held firm. The visitors' ability to transition quickly and exploit space behind Larisa's advanced wing-backs proved decisive, especially for their second goal.
Turning Point
The red card to Larisa, which left them a man down and allowed Panetolikos to control the game's tempo and see out the win.
Man of the Match
Alexandru Mฤศan
Scored the crucial second goal and was instrumental in Panetolikos' attacking transitions.
๐ฎ Prediction Playground
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Expected goals ยท model says 0.70
Expected goals ยท model says 0.85
Over 2.5 Goals
20%
BTTS: Yes
29%
Likely Scores
0-0 ยท 0-1 ยท 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above โ every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration โ not betting advice.
Larisa vs Panetolikos Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Larisa vs Panetolikos?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Larisa vs Panetolikos(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 1.7
Both teams have averaged less than 1 goal per game in their last 5, with Larisa failing to score in 3/5 and Panetolikos in 4/5. Recent H2H and season stats show low BTTS rates.
Read more โ
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.55
Both teams have under 2.5 goals in the majority of their matches (Larisa 65%, Panetolikos 58%). Recent form and H2H also point to low-scoring games.
Read more โ
Match Result: Draw@ 3.1
Both teams are in poor form and have a high draw rate (Larisa: 11/26, Panetolikos: 5/26). H2H history also shows 4 draws in last 10.
More Super League 1 Predictions
The Case For This Larisa vs Panetolikos Prediction
This is a relegation six-pointer between two of the lowest-scoring sides in the Greek Super League. Larisa and Panetolikos have both struggled for goals and wins, with neither side showing much attacking threat in recent weeks. Expect a cagey, low-quality affair with few clear chances, where a single goal could decide the outcome. The draw is a strong possibility, and goals are likely to be at a premium.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- โBoth teams average less than 1 goal scored per game over last 5 matches.
- โHead-to-head is even but recent meetings have been either low scoring or one-sided for Panetolikos.
Defence
- โBoth teams have clean sheet rates below 25% but also high failed-to-score rates.
Injuries & Team News
- โNo significant injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- โLarisa have failed to score in 3 of last 5; Panetolikos in 4 of last 5.
- โLarisa have only 2 home wins all season; Panetolikos just 3 away.
๐ฉ Larisa vs Panetolikos Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.4 corners for Larisa and 4.4 for Panetolikos, for an expected total of 8.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 52% ยท Over 10.5: 27%.
How Larisa and Panetolikos Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Larisa vs Panetolikos Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals รท 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Larisalast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet โ available after predictions are regenerated.
Panetolikoslast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet โ available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Larisa vs Panetolikos โ Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- โInconsistent โ 3+ losses in last 5
- โStruggling to score โ 0.6 goals/game
Strengths
- +Defensively solid โ 0.6 conceded/game
What History Says: Larisa vs Panetolikos
Larisa vs Panetolikos Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
1
Larisa wins
4
Draws
5
Panetolikos wins
Things to Watch: Larisa vs Panetolikos
- โ ๏ธSome match stats (shots, possession, etc.) are missing for several recent games, reducing confidence in shot-based projections.
- โ ๏ธBoth teams are inconsistent and motivation levels may vary due to league position.
- โ ๏ธGreek Super League matches can be unpredictable, especially in relegation battles.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk โ always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Larisa vs Panetolikos: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 4 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes โ see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.