Las Palmas vs AD Ceuta FC Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Las Palmas
Full Time
4 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
AD Ceuta FC
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
@ 4.5(+22% edge)
Match Result
8.5/10Las Palmas Run Riot with 4-0 Rout Over AD Ceuta FC at Gran Canaria
Las Palmas delivered a commanding performance at the Estadio de Gran Canaria, dismantling AD Ceuta FC 4-0 in a one-sided Segunda División encounter. The hosts asserted their authority from the outset, enjoying the lion's share of possession (53%) and peppering the Ceuta goal with 15 shots, 9 of which were on target. The breakthrough arrived late in the first half, but Las Palmas never looked back, adding three more goals after the interval to seal an emphatic victory. AD Ceuta FC struggled to gain a foothold, managing just 4 shots and a solitary corner throughout the match. Despite a disciplined defensive effort early on, the visitors were overwhelmed by a relentless Las Palmas attack, particularly after the break. Ceuta's frustrations were compounded by a yellow card, as they failed to muster a response to the home side's attacking verve.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
4 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
40' — Goal
Las Palmas open the scoring, breaking Ceuta's resistance just before half-time.
55' — Goal
The hosts double their lead early in the second half, seizing full control.
59' — Goal
A third goal for Las Palmas puts the result beyond doubt.
69' — Goal
Las Palmas cap off their dominant display with a fourth goal.
78' — Yellow Card
Ceuta's frustration boils over with a booking for one of their midfielders.
Las Palmas
Las Palmas were in imperious form, controlling possession and dictating the tempo with sharp passing and incisive movement. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed for fluid transitions, and the attacking quartet repeatedly found space between the lines. The hosts' patience paid off with a late first-half goal, and they ruthlessly capitalized on their momentum in the second period, scoring three more times. Defensively, they were rarely troubled, allowing just two shots on target all game.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC endured a torrid afternoon, unable to cope with Las Palmas' attacking threat. Their 4-4-2 setup offered little going forward, as they struggled to maintain possession and create meaningful chances. The midfield was overrun, and the defense eventually buckled under sustained pressure. Ceuta's attacking duo was largely isolated, and the team managed just two shots on target, both comfortably dealt with by the home goalkeeper.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Las Palmas lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, using their double pivot to control midfield and allow their advanced midfield trio to interchange and exploit spaces. Their pressing was effective, forcing turnovers and keeping Ceuta pinned back. The full-backs provided width, stretching the Ceuta defense and creating overloads on the flanks. In contrast, Ceuta's 4-4-2 was rigid and lacked dynamism; their midfield struggled to keep up with Las Palmas' movement, and their forwards were left isolated. The visitors' inability to transition quickly or retain possession meant they rarely threatened on the counter, and their defensive shape eventually crumbled under sustained pressure. Substitutions from Las Palmas in the second half maintained their attacking impetus, while Ceuta's changes failed to alter the pattern of the match. Set pieces were another area where Las Palmas excelled, winning seven corners and keeping Ceuta's defense under constant strain.
Turning Point
The opening goal in the 40th minute broke the deadlock and shifted momentum firmly in Las Palmas' favor, paving the way for their second-half onslaught.
Man of the Match
Jesé Rodríguez
Spearheaded the attack with a goal and constant movement, setting the tone for Las Palmas' dominant display.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 0.80
Over 2.5 Goals
30%
BTTS: Yes
37%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Las Palmas vs AD Ceuta FC Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Las Palmas vs AD Ceuta FC?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Las Palmas vs AD Ceuta FC(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: Yes@ 4.5
Model probability for BTTS (yes) is 44%, while odds imply only 22%. Both teams have 3/5 BTTS recently, AD Ceuta's attack is in form, and the last H2H was 1-1.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Draw@ 3.65
Draw probability is 36% vs implied 27%. Las Palmas have drawn 12/28 (43%) this season and 4/5 recent matches; last H2H was also a draw.
More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Las Palmas vs AD Ceuta FC Prediction
Las Palmas host AD Ceuta FC in a clash between two playoff contenders separated by just one point. Las Palmas are draw specialists, with four consecutive stalemates before a recent win, and have a strong defensive record at home. AD Ceuta arrive on a three-game winning streak but are much less effective away, conceding 24 in 14 road games. Both sides have shown a tendency for BTTS and draws, and the last meeting ended 1-1. Expect a tight, low-scoring contest with both teams likely to score but neither dominating.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →First H2H finished 1-1.
Defence
- →Las Palmas are unbeaten in their last 5 (W1 D4), with a strong home defense (11 conceded in 14).
- →AD Ceuta have won 3 in a row but have a poor away record (3W 4D 7L, 24 conceded).
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →Both teams have 3/5 BTTS in recent matches.
- →Las Palmas have drawn 12 of 28 league games (43%), including 4 of their last 5.
How Las Palmas and AD Ceuta FC Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Las Palmas vs AD Ceuta FC Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Las Palmaslast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
AD Ceuta FClast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Las Palmas vs AD Ceuta FC — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: Las Palmas vs AD Ceuta FC
Las Palmas vs AD Ceuta FC Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
1
Las Palmas wins
1
Draws
0
AD Ceuta FC wins
Things to Watch: Las Palmas vs AD Ceuta FC
- ⚠️Only one previous H2H, so limited direct matchup data.
- ⚠️Some missing match stats (shots, possession, etc.) for recent games.
- ⚠️Corners and card data are sparse, so set piece predictions are lower confidence.
- ⚠️Market odds suggest Las Palmas are much stronger, but model sees more draw/BTTS value.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Las Palmas vs AD Ceuta FC: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 3 March 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.