AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
AD Ceuta FC
Full Time
0 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 1
Las Palmas
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
Match Result
6.8/10Las Palmas Strike Twice to Sink Ceuta in Segunda División Opener
Las Palmas began their Segunda División campaign in style with a clinical 2-0 away victory over AD Ceuta FC at the Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube. Despite Ceuta's energetic start and greater share of possession, the visitors struck at crucial moments in each half, capitalizing on their chances while keeping their own goal intact. The match saw Ceuta press forward with intent, registering 18 shots to Las Palmas' 9 and edging possession with 53%. However, Las Palmas were ruthless on the break, opening the scoring in the 29th minute and doubling their lead midway through the second half. Ceuta's frustrations grew as they picked up three yellow cards and failed to convert any of their six corners, while Las Palmas managed the game with composure to secure all three points.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
0 - 2
Key Moments
29' — Goal
Las Palmas open the scoring with a well-worked move, punishing Ceuta's high line.
45' — Yellow Card
Ceuta pick up their first booking as frustration grows before halftime.
69' — Goal
Las Palmas double their lead, finishing off a swift counter-attack to put the game beyond Ceuta.
75' — Yellow Card
Second yellow for Ceuta as they struggle to regain control.
83' — Yellow Card
Ceuta's discipline slips further with a third booking late on.
AD Ceuta FC
Ceuta showed plenty of attacking ambition, firing 18 shots and controlling 53% of possession. The home side's 4-3-3 setup allowed them to push numbers forward and create opportunities, but their finishing let them down, with only 4 shots on target. Defensively, they struggled to cope with Las Palmas' incisive attacks, conceding at key moments and picking up three yellow cards as frustration mounted. Despite their efforts and a lively midfield display from Kuki Zalazar and Yann Bodiger, Ceuta lacked the cutting edge in the final third and were ultimately punished for their defensive lapses.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Las Palmas
Las Palmas executed a disciplined and clinical away performance, absorbing Ceuta's pressure and striking twice to secure a deserved win. Their 4-4-2 formation provided solidity in midfield and allowed them to break quickly, with both goals coming at pivotal moments to sap Ceuta's momentum. The back four, marshaled by Alex Suárez and Juanma Herzog, kept Ceuta's attack at bay, while the midfield duo of Enzo Loiodice and Kirian Rodríguez dictated the tempo and launched swift counters. Las Palmas' efficiency in front of goal and composure under pressure were key to their victory.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Ceuta lined up in a 4-3-3, looking to dominate possession and stretch Las Palmas with width from their front three. They pressed high and committed numbers forward, but left themselves vulnerable to counters. Las Palmas' 4-4-2 provided a solid defensive base, with the wide midfielders dropping deep to support the full-backs. This compactness frustrated Ceuta's attackers and allowed Las Palmas to break quickly, particularly through the center. Set pieces offered Ceuta opportunities, but Las Palmas defended corners well and were disciplined in their shape. The away side's tactical discipline and ability to transition rapidly from defense to attack proved decisive, as they made the most of their limited chances.
Turning Point
Las Palmas' second goal in the 69th minute, which killed Ceuta's momentum and effectively sealed the result.
Man of the Match
Enzo Loiodice
Controlled the midfield, contributed to both goals, and set the tempo for Las Palmas' victory.
AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas: Match Preview
Both AD Ceuta FC and Las Palmas enter the opening fixture with little to separate them on recent evidence. Ceuta closed last season with a narrow win and have picked up two victories in pre-season, while Las Palmas have alternated wins and losses but managed a convincing 3-1 win away to Cadiz in their last friendly. With both teams starting on zero points, the incentive is clear to establish early momentum, especially for Ceuta, who finished last season in the lower half of the table.
The statistical matchup is defined by parity in recent scoring rates—both sides have averaged 1.4 goals scored per game across their last five, while neither has managed more than one clean sheet. Defensive frailties are evident, with Las Palmas conceding 1.4 per match and Ceuta 1.0, and both have seen BTTS in three of five. First-half goals have been less common, suggesting a cagey opening period, while set-piece and discipline data are inconclusive due to limited reporting in friendlies.
Given the lack of significant home advantage data or regular-season trends, the model expects a balanced, low-to-moderate scoring contest. The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, supported by the recent head-to-head in Ceuta and the distribution of goals in both teams' pre-season matches. Margins are fine, and a single moment could tilt the result, but neither side projects to dominate.
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Expected goals · model says 1.05
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS: Yes
46%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas that most previews miss.
- 1Ceuta and Las Palmas both averaged exactly 1.4 goals scored per game over their last five matches.
- 2Las Palmas have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five, conceding at least once in each.
- 3The last head-to-head in Ceuta finished 1-1, matching the model's most probable scoreline.
Who do you think wins: AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas?
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More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas Prediction
With both sides entering the new Segunda División campaign off the back of mixed pre-season form, the data points to a balanced contest at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube. Ceuta have won three of their last five across all competitions, while Las Palmas have alternated wins and losses, with both teams averaging 1.4 goals scored per match in their recent friendlies. The head-to-head record is limited but competitive, featuring a 1-1 draw in Ceuta and a 4-0 away win for Ceuta last season. Statistically, the matchup is shaped by nearly identical recent scoring rates and a lack of clean sheets—Ceuta have kept one in five, Las Palmas none. Both sides have seen BTTS in three of their last five, but neither has shown a reliable defensive base. The goal environment projects as moderate: the model estimates a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals, with a 48% probability of both teams scoring. First-half goals have been less frequent, with Ceuta netting five and Las Palmas two in their last five matches before the break. Given the absence of strong home/away splits or standout defensive metrics, the likeliest scenario is a closely contested match where neither side dominates. The most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw, with the distribution of recent goals and the limited historical data both supporting a low-scoring, balanced affair.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams averaged 1.4 goals scored per game over their last five matches.
Defence
- →Ceuta have kept just one clean sheet in their last five; Las Palmas have kept none.
Match Context
- →Head-to-head meetings have produced a 1-1 draw and a 4-0 away win for Ceuta.
🚩 AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.6 corners for AD Ceuta FC and 4.4 for Las Palmas, for an expected total of 9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 54% · Over 10.5: 29%.
How AD Ceuta FC and Las Palmas Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
AD Ceuta FClast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Las Palmaslast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Ceuta have won three of their last five matches, including pre-season victories over Malaga and Cadiz, demonstrating some attacking sharpness. Las Palmas have alternated wins and losses, with a notable 3-1 away win at Cadiz but also two defeats. Both sides have averaged 1.4 goals scored per match in this stretch, suggesting neither arrives with a decisive advantage.
AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas
The recent head-to-head record is limited but balanced: Ceuta earned a 4-0 away win in Las Palmas last season, while the reverse fixture ended 1-1. Both meetings featured goals for each side, and neither team has established clear dominance in the matchup.
AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas Head-to-Head History
Last 3 meetings between these sides
0
AD Ceuta FC wins
1
Draws
2
Las Palmas wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas
With no bookmaker odds available for this fixture, the model cannot identify value edges or recommend bets with positive expected value. Any betting angles would be speculative given the absence of market prices and the reliance on pre-season data.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas
- ⚠️No regular-season data for 2026/27—recent form is based only on pre-season and last campaign's close.
- ⚠️Home/away splits are unavailable due to lack of competitive fixtures this season.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available—no value or edge calculations possible.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
AD Ceuta FC 1–1 Las PalmasThe model projects a 1-1 draw as the most probable result, anchored by both teams' identical 1.4 goals per game average in recent matches and a lack of defensive solidity. The biggest risk to this prediction is the absence of competitive home/away data for the new season, which means any early-season tactical shift or squad change could skew the outcome.
AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas: Common Questions
Who will win AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas?
The model gives Las Palmas a slight edge with a 37% win probability, Ceuta at 27%, and a draw the most likely single outcome at 36%. Both teams have shown similar recent form, so margins are narrow.
Will both teams score in AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas?
There is a 48% probability that both teams will score, based on each side averaging 1.4 goals per game and three of their last five matches seeing BTTS.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in this match?
The model estimates a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of under 2.5, reflecting moderate attacking output and some defensive vulnerability but not a high-scoring trend.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 15 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.