Lausanne vs FC Thun Predictions
Super League · Switzerland
Lausanne
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
FC Thun
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: Lausanne vs FC Thun
Lausanne vs FC Thun: Match Preview
Lausanne enter this fixture bottom of the table with just one win from ten, and a home record that reads 0-2-3 with 11 goals conceded at Stade de la Tuiliere. Their recent league form is dire (four straight losses before a cup rout), while Thun, though only three places higher, have been more productive in attack and have picked up three away wins already this season. Both sides are under pressure to reverse negative trends, but Thun’s superior away scoring gives them a statistical edge.
The tactical matchup is defined by Thun’s aggressive away attack (2.5 goals per away game) against a Lausanne defence conceding over two per home match. Thun’s games average 4.4 goals, the highest in the league, and 80% have gone over 2.5. Lausanne’s recent home games have also seen a spike in goals against, and while their attack is blunt (0.7 goals per game season average), they have averaged 1.6 in their last five across all competitions, albeit inflated by a cup mismatch. Both teams’ discipline is middling, but corners are likely to be limited, with neither side consistently exceeding five per match.
The model expects Thun’s away firepower to be decisive, projecting a 2-1 away win. Defensive vulnerabilities on both sides should ensure chances, but Thun’s ability to score multiple goals on the road—coupled with Lausanne’s inability to keep clean sheets at home—drives the over 2.5 angle. The likeliest scenario is Thun scoring first and exploiting Lausanne’s need to chase, with the home side’s best hope coming from set pieces or late pressure.
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Expected goals · model says 1.35
Expected goals · model says 1.95
Over 2.5 Goals
64%
BTTS: Yes
64%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Lausanne vs FC Thun Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Lausanne vs FC Thun that most previews miss.
- 1Thun’s away matches average 5.2 total goals (15 scored, 16 conceded in 6 games).
- 2Lausanne have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 league matches, but did net 7 in their most recent cup outing.
- 3Only one of the last seven H2H meetings finished without both teams scoring.
Who do you think wins: Lausanne vs FC Thun?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Lausanne vs FC Thun(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
FC Thun’s matches have seen an 80% over 2.5 goals rate this season (8 of 10), with 43 goals in their 10 league games, while Lausanne’s home defence concedes 2.2 per game; the model projects a high goal environment.
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Match Result: FC Thun Win
Thun have scored 15 goals in 6 away games (2.5 per game) and Lausanne are winless at home (0W 2D 3L, 11 conceded); Thun’s attack rate and Lausanne’s defensive record tip the balance.
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More Super League Predictions
The Case For This Lausanne vs FC Thun Prediction
The numbers point to a high-scoring contest between two of the league’s leakiest defences, with Thun’s away attack (2.5 goals per game) facing a Lausanne side yet to win at home and conceding 2.2 per match. Both sides are coming off poor league form, but Thun’s attacking output on the road and Lausanne’s chronic home struggles create a statistical tilt toward the visitors. With Thun’s matches averaging 4.4 total goals and Lausanne’s recent home games trending over, the model expects a game shaped by defensive frailty and open play.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Thun average 2.5 goals scored per away match (15 in 6), highest away output in the bottom half.
Defence
- →Lausanne have failed to win at home (0W 2D 3L) and concede 2.2 per home game.
Match Context
- →Thun’s matches have an 80% over 2.5 goal rate; Lausanne’s is 40% but rising.
🚩 Lausanne vs FC Thun Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.6 corners for Lausanne and 4.8 for FC Thun, for an expected total of 10.4. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 71% · Over 10.5: 47%.
How Lausanne and FC Thun Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Lausanne vs FC Thun Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Lausannelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
FC Thunlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Lausanne have lost four of their last five league matches, scoring just once in that span, though they did record a 7-0 cup win against lower-league opposition. Thun come in on a three-match losing streak across all competitions, but their away form in the league remains a relative bright spot, with three wins and 15 goals scored in six trips.
Lausanne vs FC Thun — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 80% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Lausanne vs FC Thun
The last ten meetings are balanced, with Lausanne holding a slight edge (4 wins to Thun’s 3), and most games featuring goals at both ends. The most recent league encounter ended 0-0, but prior matches have been more open, including a 2-1 home win for Lausanne and a 5-1 Thun home win in early 2026.
Lausanne vs FC Thun Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Lausanne wins
3
Draws
3
FC Thun wins
Things to Watch: Lausanne vs FC Thun
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no explicit value calculations.
- ⚠️Recent form for both sides is poor, increasing volatility.
- ⚠️Lausanne’s 7-0 cup win skews short-term attacking averages.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Lausanne 1–2 FC ThunA 2-1 away win is the model’s call, underpinned by Thun’s 2.5 goals per away game and Lausanne’s winless, porous home record. The biggest threat to this projection is Lausanne’s attack underperforming again, which could drag the match under the goal line or open the door for a low-scoring draw.
Lausanne vs FC Thun: Common Questions
Who will win Lausanne vs FC Thun?
The model gives Thun a 49% chance of victory, Lausanne 23%, and a draw 28%. Thun’s strong away attack and Lausanne’s poor home record tip the balance towards the visitors.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lausanne vs FC Thun?
There’s a 66% model probability for over 2.5 goals, driven by Thun’s 80% over 2.5 rate this season and both teams’ high concession rates.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC Thun?
Both teams to score is rated at 56% probability, with recent H2H and Thun’s defensive record supporting a high likelihood of goals at both ends.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Lausanne vs FC Thun: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 25 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.