Le Havre vs Toulouse Predictions
Ligue 1 · France
Le Havre
Full Time
2 - 1
AI predicted 0 - 1
Toulouse
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.05(+6% edge)
Match Result
7.8/10Le Havre Edge Toulouse in Tenacious 2-1 Win Despite Red Card Drama
Le Havre pulled off a gritty 2-1 victory over Toulouse at Stade Océane, overcoming a significant possession deficit and a second-half red card to claim all three points. The hosts struck first just before the interval and quickly doubled their advantage after the break, but Toulouse responded instantly to set up a tense second half. Despite being reduced to ten men and facing relentless pressure—Toulouse registered a staggering 25 shots and 67% possession—Le Havre's defensive resilience proved decisive. Toulouse dominated much of the play, peppering the Le Havre goal with nine shots on target and forcing the hosts to defend deep. However, wasteful finishing and a lack of composure in the final third let them down. Le Havre, meanwhile, made the most of their limited opportunities, converting two of just five shots to secure a hard-fought win.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
0 - 1
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/3 hit
Key Moments
43' — Goal
Sofiane Boufal puts Le Havre ahead against the run of play.
45' — Goal
Emersonn equalizes for Toulouse just before halftime.
53' — Goal
Le Havre restore their lead with a clinical finish.
60' — Red Card
Le Havre reduced to ten men, setting up a tense final half hour.
75' — Yellow Card
Toulouse pick up their fourth yellow as frustrations mount.
Le Havre
Le Havre delivered a classic underdog performance, soaking up waves of Toulouse pressure and capitalizing on their rare forays forward. Despite controlling only 33% of possession and managing just two shots on target, the home side were clinical in front of goal and resolute in defense, especially after being reduced to ten men. Their ability to maintain shape and discipline under siege was instrumental in seeing out the victory.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Toulouse
Toulouse controlled the tempo and territory, boasting 67% possession and generating 25 shots, but were ultimately undone by poor finishing and lapses at the back. Their midfield dictated play and they created a steady stream of chances, but a lack of cutting edge in front of goal proved costly. Four yellow cards also highlighted their frustration as they struggled to break down Le Havre's disciplined block.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Le Havre set up in a 3-4-1-2, prioritizing defensive solidity and quick transitions. Their compact back three, shielded by a hardworking midfield, absorbed Toulouse's pressure and limited clear-cut chances despite the shot volume. After the red card, Le Havre dropped even deeper, switching to a more reactive shape and focusing on protecting their lead. Toulouse's 3-4-2-1 formation allowed them to dominate the ball and push wingbacks high, but their attacking midfielders struggled to find space between the lines as Le Havre congested central areas. Set pieces and wide deliveries were frequent, but Le Havre's aerial presence and organization held firm.
Turning Point
The red card for Le Havre in the 60th minute forced them into a defensive shell, but their ability to withstand Toulouse's onslaught in the final half hour proved decisive.
Man of the Match
Mory Diaw
Produced a string of vital saves to preserve Le Havre's lead under heavy fire.
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Expected goals · model says 0.50
Expected goals · model says 0.80
Over 2.5 Goals
14%
BTTS: Yes
22%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Le Havre vs Toulouse Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Le Havre vs Toulouse?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Le Havre vs Toulouse(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.05
Both teams are defensively solid and low scoring, with Le Havre drawing 5 of 11 at home and Toulouse drawing 2 of 10 away. H2H is also draw-prone (0-0 earlier this season). Bookmaker odds slightly underestimate the draw probability.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.11
Both teams have strong under 2.5 trends (Le Havre 61.9%, Toulouse 52.4% under). Recent matches and H2H suggest a low-scoring game.
BTTS: No@ 1.18
Le Havre have failed to score in 2 of last 5, Toulouse in 2 of last 5. H2H and recent form suggest at least one side blanking.
More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This Le Havre vs Toulouse Prediction
This Ligue 1 clash at Stade Océane is set up as a low-scoring, cagey affair. Le Havre are tough to beat at home but struggle for goals, while Toulouse are more potent but also defensively strong on the road. Both teams have drawn a high proportion of matches, and recent H2H meetings have been tight, including a 0-0 earlier this season. Key injuries on both sides may further limit attacking options. Expect a tactical battle with few clear chances, and a draw or narrow away win most likely.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Le Havre have drawn 5 of 11 home matches; Toulouse have 2 draws in 10 away.
- →H2H: 0-0 in last meeting, 2 draws in last 5.
Attack
- →Le Havre average just 0.86 goals scored per game (season), Toulouse 1.48.
Defence
- →Both teams have strong defensive records recently (Toulouse 3 clean sheets last 5, Le Havre conceding 0.8/game last 5).
Injuries & Team News
- →Several injuries affecting both teams' defensive and midfield depth.
Match Context
- →Both teams often see under 2.5 goals (Le Havre 61.9%, Toulouse 52.4%).
🚩 Le Havre vs Toulouse Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.6 corners for Le Havre and 3 for Toulouse, for an expected total of 7.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (76%). Over 8.5: 35% · Over 10.5: 15%.
How Le Havre and Toulouse Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Le Havre vs Toulouse Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Le Havrelast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Toulouselast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Le Havre vs Toulouse — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 3.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Le Havre vs Toulouse
Le Havre vs Toulouse Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Le Havre wins
2
Draws
5
Toulouse wins
Things to Watch: Le Havre vs Toulouse
- ⚠️Toulouse attacking data for last 5 matches is incomplete (shots, possession, etc. missing).
- ⚠️Le Havre have some defensive injuries; impact on lineup is uncertain.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds suggest Toulouse are stronger, but model sees this as a closer, low-scoring game.
- ⚠️Low confidence in goal and card markets due to missing detailed stats.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Le Havre vs Toulouse: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 15 February 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.