Leeds vs Burnley Predictions
Premier League · England
Leeds
Full Time
3 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 0
Burnley
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 3.65(+14% edge)
Match Result
6.5/10Leeds and Burnley Share the Spoils in Goalless Elland Road Stalemate
Leeds and Burnley battled to a 0-0 draw at Elland Road in a match that was high on intensity but low on clinical finishing. Despite Leeds firing 18 shots and forcing Martin Dúbravka into 8 saves, they could not find a breakthrough against Burnley's resolute five-man defence. Burnley, meanwhile, edged possession with 52% of the ball but managed only 3 shots on target, rarely troubling Karl Darlow in the Leeds goal. Both sides had their moments, with Leeds looking more threatening in open play and Burnley relying on structured defending and occasional counters. The match saw a combined seven yellow cards, reflecting the physical and competitive nature of the contest, but neither team could capitalise on their chances or set pieces, leaving the points shared.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
2 - 0
Actual
3 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
23' — Leeds chance
Dominic Calvert-Lewin forces a strong save from Dúbravka after a swift counter.
41' — Yellow card
First of several bookings as tempers flare in midfield.
57' — Leeds shot
Noah Okafor's curling effort tipped wide by Dúbravka.
68' — Burnley chance
Zian Flemming's low drive comfortably saved by Darlow.
79' — Yellow card
Fourth Leeds player booked as Burnley frustrate the hosts.
Leeds
Leeds set up in a 3-5-2 and produced the game's best attacking moments, registering 18 shots and 8 on target. Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Noah Okafor led the line energetically, while the midfield trio worked hard to create openings. However, Leeds were ultimately frustrated by Burnley's defensive block and the impressive performance of Martin Dúbravka in goal. Defensively, Leeds were solid, limiting Burnley to just 3 shots on target and dealing well with the visitors' sporadic attacks. However, their inability to convert chances and a lack of composure in the final third cost them a valuable win at home.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Burnley
Burnley deployed a defensive 5-4-1 formation, prioritising solidity and organisation. They controlled 52% of possession but struggled to convert that into meaningful attacking opportunities, managing just 9 shots and only 3 on target. The back five, marshalled by Hjalmar Ekdal and Maxime Estève, were disciplined throughout, with Martin Dúbravka making several key saves to preserve the clean sheet. Going forward, Burnley lacked penetration and failed to win a single corner, reflecting their limited attacking threat. However, their defensive resilience and ability to frustrate Leeds earned them a hard-fought point on the road.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Leeds' 3-5-2 system allowed them to dominate the central areas and create overloads in midfield, but Burnley's well-drilled 5-4-1 shape limited space in and around the penalty area. Leeds' wingbacks, Jayden Bogle and James Justin, provided width but struggled to deliver telling final balls against Burnley's compact back line. Burnley were content to sit deep, absorb pressure, and look for opportunities on the break, but their lack of width and attacking support for Zian Flemming left them blunt in the final third. Both managers made tactical tweaks with substitutions, but neither side could find the spark required to break the deadlock.
Turning Point
Martin Dúbravka's save from Okafor in the 57th minute preserved Burnley's clean sheet and deflated Leeds' momentum.
Man of the Match
Martin Dúbravka
His 8 saves were vital in keeping Burnley level and earning a valuable away point.
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Expected goals · model says 1.70
Expected goals · model says 0.60
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS: Yes
37%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 2-0 · 1-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Leeds vs Burnley Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Leeds vs Burnley?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Leeds vs Burnley(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Leeds Win@ 1.12
Leeds are in much better form, have a strong home record, and Burnley are on a four-game losing streak with very poor away defensive numbers.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 3.65
Model probability for over 2.5 goals is 41%, higher than the odds-implied probability (27%), and Burnley concede heavily away.
BTTS: No@ 1.18
Leeds have 3 clean sheets in last 5, Burnley failed to score in 3 of last 5, and both teams’ recent BTTS rate is low.
More Premier League Predictions
The Case For This Leeds vs Burnley Prediction
Leeds enter this fixture in solid form, unbeaten in their last five and with an improving defensive record, especially at home. Burnley, by contrast, are in freefall, losing four straight and struggling badly on their travels, conceding an average of nearly 2.5 goals per away game. Leeds’ attack is not prolific but should find opportunities against a Burnley side with the league’s worst defensive record. Expect Leeds to control the game, likely scoring early and maintaining their advantage, with a clean sheet a strong possibility.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Leeds unbeaten in last 5 (form: DWWDD), Burnley lost 4 straight (LLLLD)
- →Recent H2H: evenly split, but current form and league position strongly favor Leeds
Defence
- →Leeds home record: 7W 5D 5L; Burnley away: 2W 3D 12L, 42 goals conceded in 17 away games
- →Burnley average just 0.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded in last 5
- →Leeds have 3 clean sheets in last 5, Burnley failed to score in 3 of last 5
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries for either side
🚩 Leeds vs Burnley Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Leeds and 4.2 for Burnley, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 57% · Over 10.5: 31%.
How Leeds and Burnley Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Leeds vs Burnley Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Leedslast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Burnleylast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Leeds vs Burnley — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
Concerns
- −5/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
What History Says: Leeds vs Burnley
Leeds vs Burnley Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Leeds wins
3
Draws
3
Burnley wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Leeds vs Burnley
Odds from 10Bet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Leeds vs Burnley
- ⚠️Leeds have drawn 13 games this season; lack of clinical finishing could reduce win probability
- ⚠️Burnley’s last away win was several months ago, but desperation (relegation fight) may increase volatility
- ⚠️Some missing match stats for recent games; corners/cards estimates are less robust
- ⚠️Odds for Leeds are very short, reducing value despite high win probability
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Leeds vs Burnley: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.