Levante vs Atletico Madrid Predictions

Prediction by The Form Guide — Atletico Madrid and Levante arrive in sharply different form (13 vs 5 points from the last five) — routed to The Form Guide, which weights momentum most heavily.
La LigaLa Liga · Spain
high confidence
Levante

Levante

AI Predicted Score

1 - 2

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid

🗓️ Saturday, 31 Oct 2026 at 14:00 CET (venue time) · 13:00 UTC (your time)📍 Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia

Win Probability (1X2)

Levante 16%Draw 25%Atletico Madrid 59%

Best Value Pick

Match Result: Draw

@ 4.1(+3% edge)

Recommended Bets: Levante vs Atletico Madrid

Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 1.537/10
Match Result: Draw
@ 4.375/10

Levante vs Atletico Madrid: Match Preview

Levante come into this clash having finally snapped their winless streak with a 3-1 victory over Athletic Club, a result that should lift confidence in a squad that had been struggling for consistency. Their attacking output has been a rare constant—15 goals in nine matches and no blanks all season—yet defensive issues linger, with 17 conceded and no clean sheets in the last five. Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, are in the midst of a formidable run: four consecutive league wins, a statement victory over Real Madrid, and a Champions League campaign that has not derailed their domestic momentum. Their 22 points from nine matches have them firmly in the title conversation, with a 4-0-1 away record underscoring their adaptability on the road.

Statistically, this is a meeting of attack-minded hosts and a visiting side that controls matches through possession and shot volume. Levante’s last five have averaged 4.4 total goals, with both teams scoring in every outing, while Atletico’s last five average 1.6 goals for and just 0.6 against, reflecting a defence that is tough but not impenetrable. Atletico’s 60.6% average possession and 16 shots per game in recent weeks indicate they will likely dictate the ball, but Levante’s knack for late goals (seven of their last ten after half-time) means they remain dangerous throughout. Set-piece data is also notable: Atletico have averaged over six corners per game in their last five, while Levante’s low possession figures suggest they’ll look to counter and exploit any defensive lapses.

Given the form trajectories, the model expects Atletico’s structure and momentum to prevail, but not without resistance. Levante’s attack should ensure they get on the scoresheet, especially at home, but their defensive vulnerabilities are likely to be exposed by Atletico’s multi-pronged attack. A 2-1 away win is forecast, with the draw a plausible outcome if Levante’s recent improvement proves sustainable.

How Levante and Atletico Madrid Are Arriving

Form, fitness and who's likely to start.

Levante vs Atletico Madrid Goalscorer Form

Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.

LevanteLevantelast 5 matches
Roger BruguéXI
3 goals in 5
60%

Scoring consistently

I. RomeroXI
3 goals in 5
60%

Scoring consistently

Karl Etta Eyongsub/out
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

D. RequenaXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Delasub/out
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

I. NdukweXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Atletico MadridAtletico Madridlast 5 matches
A. GrimaldoXI
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

Julián ÁlvarezXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

A. BaenaXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

A. Lookmansub/out
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

P. BarriosXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

C. Romerosub/out
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Levante have finally found a spark, ending a five-match winless run with a convincing 3-1 home victory. Their attack has been consistently productive—scoring in every match—but defensive issues persist, with 12 conceded in the last five. Atletico Madrid, by contrast, are surging, having won four straight in La Liga and conceding just three times in that span, their only recent blemish a Champions League draw away at Stuttgart.

Levante vs Atletico Madrid — Last 9 Matches

LevanteLevanteLast 9 results
W3-1
D1-1
D3-3
L1-3
L2-4
D0-0
W5-2
D0-0
L0-3
Wvs Athletic Club3-1
D@ Deportivo La Coruna1-1
Dvs Sevilla3-3
L@ Villarreal1-3
Lvs Barcelona2-4
D@ Malaga0-0
Wvs Real Betis5-2
D@ Osasuna0-0
L@ Espanyol0-3

Strengths

  • +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
  • +Both teams scoring in most recent games
  • +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season

Concerns

  • −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
  • −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Atletico MadridAtletico MadridLast 9 results
W1-0
W2-1
W2-1
W4-0
W3-0
L0-3
W3-1
D2-2
W2-0
W@ Espanyol1-0
W@ Alaves2-1
Wvs Real Madrid2-1
Wvs Osasuna4-0
W@ Real Sociedad3-0
L@ Athletic Club0-3
W@ Sevilla3-1
Dvs Villarreal2-2
Wvs Malaga2-0

Strengths

  • +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
  • +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
  • +Over 2.5 goals in 77.78% of games this season
  • +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game

Levante vs Atletico Madrid Prediction Confidence at a Glance

How strongly the model leans on each market.

Match Result (1X2)
16%
25%
59%
Levante 16%Draw 25%Atletico Madrid 59%
Both Teams to Score
61%
39%
Yes 61%No 39%
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
67%
33%
Over 2.5 67%Under 2.5 33%
Corners (Over/Under 9.5)
68%
32%
Over 9.5 68%Under 9.5 32%

Stats Worth Knowing

The numbers behind Levante vs Atletico Madrid that most previews miss.

  • 1Levante have seen both teams score in all of their last five matches, with an average of 4.4 total goals per game in that stretch.
  • 2Atletico Madrid have won four consecutive league matches, conceding just three goals in that run.
  • 3Seven of Levante’s last ten goals have come after the 55th minute, highlighting their late-game threat.

🎮 Prediction Playground

Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.

Levante1.20

Expected goals · model says 1.20

Atletico Madrid2.20

Expected goals · model says 2.20

Win Probability
Levante 20% Draw 20% Atletico Madrid 60%

Over 2.5 Goals

66%

BTTS: Yes

62%

Likely Scores

1-2 · 1-1 · 0-2

Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.

Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.

Who do you think wins: Levante vs Atletico Madrid?

Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.

The Case For This Levante vs Atletico Madrid Prediction

Levante arrive at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia buoyed by a much-needed 3-1 win over Athletic Club, snapping a five-match winless run and injecting some belief into a side that had been leaking goals but never failing to score. Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, have been relentless, stringing together four consecutive league wins before a Champions League draw in Stuttgart, and their away form (four wins from five) has been a cornerstone of their early title challenge. The tactical battle will hinge on Levante’s free-scoring but porous defence against Atletico’s controlled, high-possession approach. Levante’s last five games have all featured both teams scoring and averaged 2.4 goals conceded per match, while Atletico have kept two clean sheets in their last five but still allowed a goal in three. Atletico’s 60.6% average possession and 16 shots per game in this period suggest they will dictate tempo, but Levante’s ability to strike late (seven of their last ten goals after half-time) means the contest could open up as it progresses. The model expects Atletico’s momentum and defensive structure to edge a high-scoring contest, but Levante’s attacking persistence—no blanks in nine league matches—makes a clean sheet unlikely for the visitors. With both sides trending over 2.5 goals and Levante’s recent uptick in performance, a 2-1 away win is forecast, though the draw remains a live possibility if Levante can sustain their attacking output.

Key Factors at a Glance

Defence

  • →Levante have scored in every league game this season but have not kept a clean sheet in their last five.
  • →Levante’s home matches average 5.75 total goals in their last four, while Atletico’s away defence has conceded in three of their last five.

Match Context

  • →Atletico Madrid have won four straight league matches and boast a 77.8% over 2.5 goals rate this season.

More La Liga Predictions

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🚩 Levante vs Atletico Madrid Corners Prediction

high confidence
11.2expected total corners
Over 68%
Under 32%
Over 9.5Under 9.5

Our corners model projects roughly 4.3 corners for Levante and 6.8 for Atletico Madrid, for an expected total of 11.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (68%). Over 8.5: 78% · Over 10.5: 56%.

More corners tips:Over 9.5 →Under 9.5 →

What History Says: Levante vs Atletico Madrid

The last ten meetings between these sides have been closely contested, with Atletico winning four, Levante two, and four draws. Three of the last five have ended level, and Levante have managed to score in five of the last six home encounters with Atletico, underlining their ability to trouble the visitors.

Levante vs Atletico Madrid Head-to-Head History

Last 10 meetings between these sides

2

Levante wins

4

Draws

4

Atletico Madrid wins

20%40% draws40%
31 Jan 26Levante vs Atletico Madrid0-0
8 Nov 25Atletico Madrid vs Levante3-1
18 Jan 23Levante vs Atletico Madrid0-2
16 Feb 22Atletico Madrid vs Levante0-1
28 Oct 21Levante vs Atletico Madrid2-2
20 Feb 21Atletico Madrid vs Levante0-2

Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Levante vs Atletico Madrid

The model sees a small edge on the draw at odds of 4.1, with a 25% probability compared to the bookmaker’s 24.4% implied. Over 2.5 goals is well priced given both teams’ recent trends, but value is marginal. The biggest divergence is on the draw, which is more plausible than the odds suggest due to Levante’s attacking persistence and Atletico’s potential for rotation after midweek European action.

Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.

1X2

SelectionOddsModel %Edge
Levante Win5.0016.0%-4.0%
Draw4.1025.0%+0.6%
Atletico Madrid Win1.5759.0%-4.7%

Over/Under 2.5

SelectionOddsModel %Edge
Over 2.51.5367.0%+1.6%
Under 2.52.5033.0%-7.0%

Both Teams Score

SelectionOddsModel %Edge
Yes1.5761.0%-2.7%
No2.2539.0%-5.4%

Best Value Markets Found by the Model

1X2: Draw @ 4.10EV +0.025
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 @ 1.53EV +0.025

EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.

Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.

Things to Watch: Levante vs Atletico Madrid

  • ⚠️Levante’s recent win may overstate their improvement, as defensive frailties remain (12 goals conceded in last five).
  • ⚠️Atletico’s fixture congestion (Champions League midweek) could prompt rotation, but no injuries reported.
  • ⚠️Head-to-head history is balanced, with four draws in the last ten meetings—draw risk is significant.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.

Final Verdict

Levante 1–2 Atletico Madrid

The model calls a 2-1 win for Atletico Madrid, driven primarily by their four-match league winning streak and Levante’s ongoing defensive issues (no clean sheets in five). However, Levante’s ability to score in every match and their recent home form mean the draw remains a real threat, especially if Atletico’s midweek exertions take a toll.

Levante vs Atletico Madrid: Common Questions

Who will win Levante vs Atletico Madrid?

Atletico Madrid are favoured with a 59% probability of victory, reflecting their four-match league winning streak and strong away record. Levante are given a 16% chance, with the draw at 25%—notably high given both sides' recent form.

Will both teams score in Levante vs Atletico Madrid?

The model rates both teams to score at 61%, as Levante have scored in every league match this season and both teams have found the net in all of Levante’s last five games.

Can Levante’s improved form continue against Atletico Madrid?

Levante’s last outing was an impressive 3-1 win, but their defensive record (12 conceded in last five) and Atletico’s momentum suggest sustaining that form will be difficult. The model gives Levante just a 16% win probability but expects them to score.

How This Prediction Was Made

The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Levante vs Atletico Madrid: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.

This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.

Last updated: 24 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.

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