Lille vs Le Havre Predictions
Ligue 1 · France
Lille
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 0
Le Havre
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 4.33(+14% edge)
Match Result
7.2/10Lille Held by Resolute Le Havre Despite Dominance at Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Lille were left frustrated after being held to a 1-1 draw by a dogged Le Havre side at the Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy. Despite dominating possession with 67% and unleashing 22 shots—10 of them on target—the hosts could only find the net once, as Le Havre weathered the storm and capitalized on a rare opportunity to snatch a point. The home side looked in control for much of the match, taking the lead in the 29th minute, but Le Havre responded swiftly just four minutes later, punishing Lille's brief lapse in concentration. The visitors, limited to just two shots on target, defended resolutely, picking up three yellow cards in the process, and withstood wave after wave of Lille pressure, including 14 corners, to escape with a hard-earned draw.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 0
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
29' — Goal
Matías Fernández puts Lille ahead after sustained pressure.
33' — Goal
Ally Samatta equalizes for Le Havre against the run of play.
41' — Yellow Card
Benjamin André (Lille) booked for a tactical foul in midfield.
55' — Yellow Card
Ayumu Seko (Le Havre) shown yellow for time-wasting.
68' — Yellow Card
Fodé Doucouré (Le Havre) cautioned for a late challenge.
79' — Yellow Card
Romain Perraud (Lille) booked for dissent as frustration mounts.
Lille
Lille produced a dominant attacking display, controlling possession and creating a glut of chances. Their 22 shots and 14 corners reflected their intent, but a lack of clinical finishing and a stubborn Le Havre defense left them with just a single goal to show for their efforts. The midfield orchestrated play effectively, but Lille struggled to convert their superiority into a winning margin. Defensively, Lille were rarely troubled, but a lapse after their opener allowed Le Havre to equalize almost immediately, a moment that ultimately cost them two points. The hosts pressed relentlessly in the second half, but frustration grew as the visitors held firm.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Le Havre
Le Havre delivered a textbook defensive performance, absorbing relentless pressure from Lille and making the most of their limited attacking opportunities. With just 33% possession and only two shots on target, the visitors were forced to defend deep for long stretches, but their organization and resilience earned them a valuable point. The equalizer in the 33rd minute, coming so soon after falling behind, was a testament to their opportunism. Despite conceding 14 corners and picking up three yellow cards, Le Havre's back line and goalkeeper Mory Diaw stood firm, frustrating the home crowd and denying Lille a winner.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, but Lille's approach was proactive, pressing high and using width to stretch Le Havre's compact defensive block. The home side's fullbacks, Thomas Meunier and Romain Perraud, pushed forward to overload the flanks, while Félix Correia and Hakon Arnar Haraldsson sought to unlock the defense with quick interchanges. Lille's 14 corners and 22 shots reflected their territorial dominance, but Le Havre's deep line and disciplined midfield shield limited clear-cut chances. Le Havre, meanwhile, focused on defensive solidity, rarely committing numbers forward. Their midfield duo worked tirelessly to close down space, and the back four remained organized under pressure. Substitutions in the second half appeared aimed at shoring up the result, as Le Havre increasingly sat back to protect the draw, relying on rare counter-attacks and set pieces for respite.
Turning Point
Samatta's equalizer in the 33rd minute, which immediately canceled out Lille's opener and shifted the momentum, allowing Le Havre to focus on defending their point.
Man of the Match
Mory Diaw
Produced a string of crucial saves, especially in the second half, to deny Lille a winner and secure a hard-fought point for Le Havre.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.85
Expected goals · model says 0.35
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
BTTS: Yes
25%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 2-0 · 3-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Lille vs Le Havre Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Lille vs Le Havre?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Lille vs Le Havre(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Lille Win@ 1.11
Lille are in strong form, with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5, and have a dominant home record. Le Havre have only 1 away win all season and are winless in their last 5. However, the odds are very short, so value is limited.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 4.33
Model probability for over 2.5 goals (0.37) is higher than the implied probability from odds (0.23). Lille are capable of scoring multiple goals, especially at home, and Le Havre's defence is vulnerable away.
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BTTS: No@ 1.14
Both teams to score 'no' has landed in 4 of Lille's last 5 and Le Havre have failed to score in 1 of their last 5. Lille's defence is solid at home, and Le Havre's attack is weak away. However, the odds are short, so value is limited.
Read more ↓
More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This Lille vs Le Havre Prediction
Lille come into this match in excellent form, unbeaten in their last five Ligue 1 games and with a strong home record. Le Havre, by contrast, are winless in their last five and have struggled away from home all season, with just one away win. Lille's attack has been productive, and their defence tight, while Le Havre have difficulty scoring and concede regularly on the road. Expect Lille to control the match, create the better chances, and likely keep a clean sheet against a Le Havre side lacking attacking threat.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →H2H: Lille have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.
Attack
- →Lille's home record: 8W-4D-3L, 23 goals scored in 15 games.
- →Le Havre have failed to score in 1 of their last 5, and average just 0.83 goals per game this season.
- →Lille have a higher average xG, shots, and shots on target than Le Havre.
Defence
- →Lille's last 5: DWWWL, with 3 clean sheets and only 0.6 goals conceded per game.
- →Le Havre's away record: 1 win in 15, 25 goals conceded, only 9 scored.
🚩 Lille vs Le Havre Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.2 corners for Lille and 4.2 for Le Havre, for an expected total of 10.3. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (58%). Over 8.5: 70% · Over 10.5: 46%.
How Lille and Le Havre Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Lille vs Le Havre Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Lillelast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Le Havrelast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Lille vs Le Havre — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.2 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
What History Says: Lille vs Le Havre
Lille vs Le Havre Head-to-Head History
Last 7 meetings between these sides
5
Lille wins
1
Draws
1
Le Havre wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Lille vs Le Havre
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Lille vs Le Havre
- ⚠️Le Havre have drawn 4 of their last 5, showing some defensive resilience.
- ⚠️Some Lille matches have been low-scoring at home.
- ⚠️Data on expected lineups and some match stats is missing.
- ⚠️Betting value is limited on short-priced markets.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Lille vs Le Havre: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 26 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.