Mathare United vs APS Bomet Predictions
FKF Premier League · Kenya
Mathare United
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
APS Bomet
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Mathare United vs APS Bomet: Match Preview
Mathare United approach the new campaign off a mixed five-game run (WLWLD), with just one win in their last three and a solitary clean sheet at home. APS Bomet, by contrast, are riding a five-match unbeaten streak (DWWWW), including a 2-0 win at this ground and three clean sheets, suggesting a side in better rhythm despite the new season's clean slate.
The statistical matchup is defined by APS Bomet's defensive efficiency—just 0.4 goals conceded per game in their last five—against a Mathare attack averaging only one goal per match. Both teams' recent games have leaned under, with Mathare's last five averaging 2.2 total goals and APS Bomet's at 2.0. First-half goals are rare (Mathare: 1, APS Bomet: 2 in last five), so the contest may open up after the break. Set-piece and discipline trends cannot be assessed due to missing data, but neither side has shown a high card or corners rate in event summaries.
Given the low scoring rates and the head-to-head precedent (1-1 and 0-2), the model projects a cagey affair, with a 1-1 draw most likely. APS Bomet's recent away form and defensive solidity give them a slight edge, but the lack of attacking firepower on both sides keeps the probabilities close and the draw as the most probable single outcome.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 0.90
Expected goals · model says 1.00
Over 2.5 Goals
30%
BTTS: Yes
38%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Mathare United vs APS Bomet Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Mathare United vs APS Bomet that most previews miss.
- 1APS Bomet have kept three clean sheets in their last five, conceding just two goals in that stretch.
- 2Mathare United's last five matches have featured both teams scoring only twice, reinforcing the under 2.5 trend.
- 3Both head-to-head meetings have finished under 2.5 goals, with neither team scoring more than twice.
Who do you think wins: Mathare United vs APS Bomet?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Mathare United vs APS Bomet(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw
The model assigns a 38% probability to the draw, the highest of the three outcomes, reflecting the low-scoring tendencies and two draws or one-goal games in the H2H data, but odds are unavailable so expected value cannot be computed.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
With both teams averaging under 2 goals per game across their last five and a 68% model probability for under 2.5, the data points to a low-scoring contest, but odds are missing.
Read more ↓
More FKF Premier League Predictions
The Case For This Mathare United vs APS Bomet Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a low-scoring, closely contested match. Both sides show modest attacking output in their recent form, and the head-to-head record is short but leans towards tight contests.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Mathare United have failed to score in one of their last five but average only 1 goal per game in that span.
Defence
- →APS Bomet have scored 1.6 goals per game and conceded just 0.4 in their last five, the best defensive rate in the matchup.
Match Context
- →Both previous meetings produced under 2.5 goals, with a 1-1 draw and a 2-0 APS Bomet away win.
How Mathare United and APS Bomet Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Mathare United vs APS Bomet Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Mathare Unitedlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
APS Bometlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Mathare United's recent form is uneven, with two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five, averaging just one goal scored per game. APS Bomet, meanwhile, are unbeaten in five, with four wins and a draw, and have conceded only twice in that span, signalling a more robust run-in.
Mathare United vs APS Bomet — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Mathare United vs APS Bomet
APS Bomet have the edge in the short head-to-head, winning 2-0 away and drawing 1-1 at home. Both fixtures were low-scoring, with neither side scoring more than twice, and Mathare United yet to beat APS Bomet.
Mathare United vs APS Bomet Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
0
Mathare United wins
1
Draws
1
APS Bomet wins
Things to Watch: Mathare United vs APS Bomet
- ⚠️No season aggregate or home/away split data is available; all rates are inferred from last five matches only.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are available, so value and expected value cannot be precisely quantified.
- ⚠️Absence of shot, possession, set piece, and discipline data limits the depth of tactical analysis.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Mathare United 1–1 APS BometA 1-1 draw is the model's baseline, driven by APS Bomet's defensive record (0.4 conceded per game) and Mathare's limited attacking output. The most plausible way this projection fails is if APS Bomet's recent scoring uptick (1.6 per game) continues against a Mathare side that has conceded in four of their last five.
Mathare United vs APS Bomet: Common Questions
Who will win Mathare United vs APS Bomet?
The model gives APS Bomet a 34% chance to win, Mathare United 28%, and the draw 38%. Recent form and head-to-head suggest a close contest, with the draw slightly favoured.
Will both teams score in Mathare United vs APS Bomet?
Both teams to score is rated at 48%, with the 'no' slightly more likely at 52%. This reflects the low-scoring head-to-head history and both sides' recent defensive records.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in Mathare United vs APS Bomet?
Yes, under 2.5 goals is the model's strongest angle at 68% probability, based on both teams averaging under two goals per game in their last five and both previous meetings finishing under this line.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Mathare United vs APS Bomet: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 22 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.