Millwall vs Hull City Predictions
Championship · England
Millwall
Full Time
0 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 0
Hull City
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.5(+9% edge)
Match Result
7.2/10Hull City Punish Wasteful Millwall to Seal 2-0 Victory at The Den
Hull City produced a clinical away performance to defeat Millwall 2-0 at The Den, capitalizing on their chances despite seeing little of the ball. In a match where Millwall controlled 66% possession and registered more passes, it was Hull’s incisiveness on the break that proved decisive. Goals from Liam Millar in the 64th minute and Oli McBurnie fifteen minutes from time gave the visitors a deserved win. Millwall’s dominance in possession failed to translate into goals, as they managed only five shots on target from ten attempts. Hull, meanwhile, were more direct and effective, firing 14 shots with seven on target and making the most of their opportunities. The result reflected Hull’s superior execution in both penalty areas, as Millwall’s attacking midfield trio struggled to find a breakthrough.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 0
Actual
0 - 2
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
64' — Goal
Liam Millar scores to give Hull City a 1-0 lead against the run of play.
79' — Goal
Oli McBurnie doubles Hull's advantage, finishing off a swift counter-attack.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Hull City accumulate four yellow cards as they disrupt Millwall's build-up.
Millwall
Millwall started brightly, dictating play with a 4-2-3-1 formation and enjoying 66% possession. Despite their control, they struggled to break down Hull’s compact defense, with Josh Coburn isolated up front and the creative midfielders unable to unlock the visitors. Their best period came in the first hour, but a lack of cutting edge saw them fail to convert their six corners and five shots on target into goals. After conceding the opener, Millwall pushed forward but left gaps at the back, which Hull exploited for the second goal. A solitary yellow card reflected their frustration as the match slipped away.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Hull City
Hull City executed their game plan to perfection, sitting deep in a 3-4-2-1 and springing forward with purpose. Despite having just 34% possession, they were a constant threat on the break, amassing 14 shots and seven on target. Their defensive trio, marshaled by John Egan, kept Millwall at bay, while the midfield worked tirelessly to disrupt the hosts’ rhythm. Liam Millar’s opener shifted momentum firmly in Hull’s favor, and Oli McBurnie’s late strike sealed the result. Four yellow cards highlighted their physical approach, but it was their clinical finishing and tactical discipline that made the difference.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Millwall lined up in a 4-2-3-1, seeking to control the midfield and build attacks patiently. Their possession-based approach saw them dominate the ball and force six corners, but Hull’s compact 3-4-2-1 stifled space in the final third. The visitors sat deep, absorbed pressure, and looked to exploit Millwall’s advanced full-backs with quick transitions. Hull’s wing-backs, Lewie Coyle and Ryan Giles, provided width and support on the break, while the front three pressed selectively, forcing turnovers that led to both goals. Their physicality and tactical fouling disrupted Millwall’s rhythm, as evidenced by four yellow cards.
Turning Point
Liam Millar’s goal in the 64th minute shifted momentum and forced Millwall to chase the game, leaving them exposed for Hull’s second.
Man of the Match
Liam Millar
Scored the crucial opener and was a constant threat on the counter, setting the tone for Hull’s victory.
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Expected goals · model says 0.95
Expected goals · model says 0.45
Over 2.5 Goals
17%
BTTS: Yes
22%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 2-0
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Millwall vs Hull City Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Millwall vs Hull City?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Millwall vs Hull City(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.5
Both teams have shown defensive solidity recently, with Millwall conceding just 2 in their last 5 and Hull keeping the last H2H goalless. The high draw probability and the odds offered present a positive expected value.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.17
Recent form, H2H history, and both teams' defensive stats point strongly to a low-scoring match, with 0-0 and 1-0/0-1 common results. However, the odds are short and only marginal value.
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More Championship Predictions
The Case For This Millwall vs Hull City Prediction
This is a high-stakes playoff tie at The Den, with Millwall holding a slight edge after a strong run of form and home advantage. Both teams have been defensively robust in recent matches, and the first leg ended goalless, reflecting their cautious approaches. Expect a tense, low-scoring encounter with Millwall's discipline and home record tipping the balance, but Hull's away threat and the H2H record suggest a close contest that could go to extra time.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →H2H: 4 draws in last 10, 3 of last 5 meetings under 2.5 goals.
Defence
- →Millwall's last 5: DWDWW, conceding just 2 goals and keeping 3 clean sheets.
- →Millwall's defensive stats (season clean sheet % 40.4) outshine Hull's (25.5%).
Injuries & Team News
- →Both teams have key injuries but recent lineups have coped.
Match Context
- →Hull have only 1 win in their last 5, but have scored in 4 of those games.
- →Millwall's home record is strong (13W, 3D, 7L), while Hull's away record is mixed (10W, 5D, 8L).
🚩 Millwall vs Hull City Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 7 corners for Millwall and 5.8 for Hull City, for an expected total of 12.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (82%). Over 8.5: 89% · Over 10.5: 73%.
How Millwall and Hull City Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Millwall vs Hull City Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Millwalllast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Hull Citylast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Millwall come into this match unbeaten in their last five, with three wins and two draws, including a solid 2-0 home win over Oxford United and a 0-0 away draw at Hull. Their defensive record is impressive, conceding just twice in this run. Hull, meanwhile, have one win, three draws, and one loss in their last five, showing resilience but less cutting edge, with their only win a narrow 2-1 over Norwich.
Millwall vs Hull City — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 60% avg
What History Says: Millwall vs Hull City
The head-to-head record is very balanced, with four draws in the last ten meetings and neither side dominating. Low-scoring games are common, with three of the last five finishing under 2.5 goals and the last clash ending 0-0. Hull have won twice at The Den in recent years, but Millwall have also claimed victories.
Millwall vs Hull City Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
1
Millwall wins
4
Draws
5
Hull City wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Millwall vs Hull City
The model sees the draw as significantly more likely than the odds imply, offering the best value in the 1x2 market. The under 2.5 goals and BTTS 'no' are highly probable but the odds are too short to offer real value. Overall, the draw is the standout value play given the defensive form and H2H history.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Millwall vs Hull City
- ⚠️Low-scoring playoff matches can be decided by small margins or a single mistake.
- ⚠️Recent H2H and first leg suggest another tight contest, but extra time potential increases variance.
- ⚠️Injury lists are significant for both sides, but most absentees are not recent regular starters.
- ⚠️Some missing stat fields (e.g. full shots/corners for all recent matches) reduce precision of set piece estimates.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Millwall vs Hull City: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.