Nacional vs Guimaraes Predictions
Primeira Liga · Portugal
Nacional
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Guimaraes
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.4(+8% edge)
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Expected goals · model says 0.75
Expected goals · model says 0.85
Over 2.5 Goals
22%
BTTS: Yes
30%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Nacional vs Guimaraes Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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Where the Model Sees Value: Nacional vs Guimaraes(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.4
Model assigns a 37% probability to the draw (implied odds 2.70), while the bookmaker offers 3.4 (implied probability 29%), creating a notable value edge on the draw outcome in a low-scoring, evenly matched fixture.
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The Case For This Nacional vs Guimaraes Prediction
Nacional and Guimaraes both enter this fixture on the back of two consecutive losses, with neither side showing strong attacking form recently. The underlying data suggests a low-scoring, cagey affair, with both teams struggling to consistently find the net and a high likelihood of the match being decided by fine margins. The historical head-to-head record also points to closely contested encounters, making a draw the most probable outcome.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams are on two-game losing streaks and have struggled for attacking output in recent matches.
Defence
- →Nacional average just 1.06 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game this season; Guimaraes are similar at 1.18 scored and 1.48 conceded.
- →Both sides have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5 matches, but also failed to score in multiple games.
Match Context
- →Head-to-head meetings are often close, with 3 draws and only one match in the last 5 decided by more than one goal.
- →Bookmaker odds significantly favor Nacional, but model sees the match as much closer, with value on the draw.
🚩 Nacional vs Guimaraes Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for Nacional and 5.2 for Guimaraes, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 57% · Over 10.5: 31%.
How Nacional and Guimaraes Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Nacional vs Guimaraes Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Nacionallast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Guimaraeslast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Nacional come into this match with two straight losses, having scored just once in their last three games, though they did manage two wins prior to that. Guimaraes are also on a two-game losing streak, including a heavy 1-5 defeat to Sporting CP, but had picked up back-to-back wins before that, indicating inconsistency for both sides.
Nacional vs Guimaraes — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Nacional vs Guimaraes
The head-to-head record is relatively balanced, but Guimaraes have won 3 of the last 5 encounters, including a 2-1 win earlier this season. However, draws are common, and most matches are close, with few goals separating the sides.
Nacional vs Guimaraes Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Nacional wins
2
Draws
5
Guimaraes wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Nacional vs Guimaraes
The model finds the best value on the draw, with a probability of 37% versus bookmaker implied odds of 29%. The 'btts: no' and 'under 2.5' markets are priced too short by the bookmaker relative to the model, so there is no value in those selections. Overall, the draw offers the most attractive combination of probability and price.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Nacional vs Guimaraes
- ⚠️Some match stats (shots, possession, etc.) are missing or incomplete for recent games, reducing model confidence in set piece and discipline projections.
- ⚠️Both teams have little to play for in the standings, which could impact motivation and tactical approach.
- ⚠️Lineups are not yet available; late injuries or rotations could affect match dynamics.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Nacional vs Guimaraes: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.