New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union Predictions
Major League Soccer · USA
New England Revolution
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Philadelphia Union
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 1.53(+4% edge)
Recommended Bets: New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union
New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union: Match Preview
New England Revolution enter this MLS playoff clash on the back of two straight defeats, but their overall home record remains strong with 11 wins from 17 and an average of 1.82 goals scored per home game. Philadelphia Union, meanwhile, have been unpredictable away from home (6 wins, 3 draws, 8 losses), but lead the league in away goals scored (34) and have just posted a 4-1 win over Toronto. Both sides finished in the top six, but New England's eight-point cushion and superior home form give them a slight edge in the standings.
Statistically, this fixture projects as high-scoring. Both teams average 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over their last five, but the season-long numbers are even more aggressive: New England matches go over 2.5 goals 70.6% of the time, Philadelphia 67.7%. Philadelphia's away matches are especially open, averaging 3.94 goals per game. The head-to-head record shows Philadelphia with six wins in the last ten, but New England took the most recent meeting 2-1 away. Set-piece activity is likely to be high, with both teams averaging over 4.5 corners per game recently.
The model expects Philadelphia's away attack to be the decisive factor, projecting a 2-1 away win but with a significant chance of a draw if New England's home attack finds rhythm. The likeliest scenario is an open contest with both teams scoring, but Philadelphia's superior shot volume and away scoring rate tip the probabilities in their favour.
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Expected goals · model says 1.50
Expected goals · model says 1.95
Over 2.5 Goals
67%
BTTS: Yes
67%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union that most previews miss.
- 1Philadelphia's away matches average 3.94 total goals per game (34 scored, 33 conceded in 17), the highest in the league's top six.
- 2New England have kept just three clean sheets in their last 17 home matches, a 17.6% rate.
- 3Seven of the last ten H2H meetings have produced at least two goals, with only two finishing goalless.
Who do you think wins: New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.66
The model assigns a 27% probability to the draw, marginally above the 26.7% implied by 3.75 odds, in a fixture where both sides have shown a tendency for tight outcomes and three of the last ten H2H finished level.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.53
Both teams see over 2.5 goals in more than two-thirds of their league matches (NE: 70.6%, PHI: 67.7%), and their combined season average is 3.32 goals per game, supporting the 68% model probability for over.
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More Major League Soccer Predictions
The Case For This New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union Prediction
This fixture brings together two of MLS's most attack-minded sides, with New England Revolution averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game, while Philadelphia Union have been even more prolific at 1.94 scored and 1.53 conceded. Both teams' recent form is mixed, but the underlying numbers point to a high-probability goal environment. The away side's shot volume (17.2 per game last five) and New England's home scoring rate (1.82 per game) suggest both will create chances. Philadelphia's away record (34 goals for, 33 against in 17 away matches) is among the league's most open, and New England's home matches average 3.0 goals. The head-to-head history also leans towards goals, with seven of the last ten meetings producing at least two. Set-piece activity should be high, with both teams averaging over 4.5 corners per match recently, while discipline is moderate (combined 2.2 yellows per game last five). The model expects Philadelphia to edge a match with multiple lead changes, with their superior away attack (2.00 goals per away game) the key differentiator. However, New England's strong home record (11 wins from 17) and recent H2H win keep the draw in play, especially if both sides convert at their usual rates.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →New England's home matches see 3.0 goals per game on average, with a 70.6% over 2.5 rate.
Defence
- →Philadelphia have scored 34 and conceded 33 in 17 away games, the highest combined away goal total among MLS playoff teams.
- →Both teams average 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over their last five matches, indicating neither defence is currently watertight.
🚩 New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for New England Revolution and 7 for Philadelphia Union, for an expected total of 11. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (66%). Over 8.5: 77% · Over 10.5: 54%.
How New England Revolution and Philadelphia Union Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
New England Revolutionlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Philadelphia Unionlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
New England have lost their last two matches but had won three straight prior, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over the last five. Philadelphia's form is more erratic, with one win, two draws, and two defeats in their last five, but they finished with a 4-1 home victory and have maintained strong attacking numbers throughout.
New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Over 2.5 goals in 70.59% of games this season
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 67.65% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 17 shots/game
What History Says: New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning six of the last ten meetings, including three away victories in New England. However, New England did win the most recent encounter 2-1 away, and draws have occurred twice in the last ten, both with clean sheets.
New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
New England Revolution wins
2
Draws
6
Philadelphia Union wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union
The model sees marginal value in the draw at 3.75 (1.3% edge) and a small positive edge on over 2.5 goals at 1.53 (4.3% edge), both driven by the high probability of a close, high-scoring contest. No significant value is found on the under or the away win at current odds.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union
- ⚠️No injury or suspension news at time of writing; late team news could affect attacking lineups.
- ⚠️Recent form for both sides is volatile, with New England losing two straight and Philadelphia alternating results.
- ⚠️Model confidence is moderate due to both teams' high-variance goal profiles and the playoff context.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
New England Revolution 1–2 Philadelphia UnionThe model projects a 2-1 win for Philadelphia Union, driven by their league-leading away goal output (2.00 per away match) and New England's defensive vulnerability at home. However, the draw remains a live outcome given New England's strong home record and the tendency for close, high-scoring games between these sides. A low-conversion night from Philadelphia's attack is the main risk to the away win probability.
New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union: Common Questions
Who will win New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union?
Philadelphia Union are given a 46% probability to win, compared to 27% for New England and 27% for the draw. This is based on Philadelphia's superior away scoring rate and historical edge in the head-to-head.
Will both teams score in New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union?
The model estimates a 62% probability for both teams to score, reflecting both sides' high-scoring tendencies and the fact that three of their last five matches each have seen BTTS.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union?
There is a 68% model probability for over 2.5 goals, supported by both teams' season-long over 2.5 rates (New England 70.6%, Philadelphia 67.7%) and their recent attacking output.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union Resources
New England Revolution Predictions
All New England Revolution fixtures & tips
Philadelphia Union Predictions
All Philadelphia Union fixtures & tips
New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
Major League Soccer Predictions
All fixtures for this competition
Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results