New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls Predictions
Major League Soccer · USA
New York City FC
Full Time
0 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 1
New York Red Bulls
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
Match Result
6.8/10Red Bulls Edge NYCFC in Bronx Derby with Second-Half Strike
The New York Red Bulls claimed bragging rights in the Hudson River Derby with a narrow 1-0 victory over New York City FC at Yankee Stadium. In a match where NYCFC dominated possession with 63% and peppered the Red Bulls' goal with 15 shots, it was the visitors who made their solitary shot on target count, scoring in the 57th minute to seal all three points. Despite their territorial advantage and attacking intent, NYCFC struggled to break down a resolute Red Bulls defense marshaled by Tim Parker. The Red Bulls, meanwhile, absorbed pressure and capitalized on a rare opportunity after the break, holding firm in the face of late NYCFC pressure to secure a crucial away win.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
0 - 1
Key Moments
57' — Goal
Red Bulls score the only goal of the match with their first and only shot on target.
68' — Yellow Card
NYCFC pick up their second yellow as frustrations mount chasing an equalizer.
80' — Yellow Card
Red Bulls receive their third yellow card as they defend their lead with physicality.
New York City FC
NYCFC controlled much of the match, dictating play with 63% possession and creating 15 shots, four of which tested Ethan Horvath. Their 4-2-3-1 setup allowed for fluid midfield play, but the final ball was often lacking, and clear-cut chances were at a premium. Defensively, they were rarely troubled, conceding just one shot on target, but that proved decisive. Frustration grew as the match wore on, reflected in two yellow cards as they pressed for an equalizer. Ultimately, NYCFC's inability to convert possession into goals cost them dearly in this derby.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
New York Red Bulls
The Red Bulls executed their game plan to perfection, soaking up pressure and striking decisively on the counter. With just 37% possession and only one shot on target, they made their moment count in the 57th minute, showing clinical efficiency. Defensively, they were organized and disciplined, with Tim Parker and Ethan Horvath standing out under sustained pressure. Their physical approach was evident in 19 fouls and three yellow cards, but it succeeded in disrupting NYCFC's rhythm and protecting their slender lead.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
NYCFC lined up in a 4-2-3-1, looking to dominate the ball and create overloads in midfield. Their double pivot provided a solid base, allowing the attacking trio to probe between the lines, but the Red Bulls' compact 4-3-3 shape limited space in central areas. The Red Bulls sat deep, inviting pressure and relying on quick transitions to exploit any gaps left by NYCFC's advancing fullbacks. Set pieces were a rare avenue for both sides, with NYCFC earning six corners to Red Bulls' seven, but neither side could capitalize. The Red Bulls' tactical discipline and willingness to disrupt play with fouls prevented NYCFC from finding rhythm in the final third, while their own attacking forays were sparse but ultimately decisive.
Turning Point
The 57th-minute goal for the Red Bulls, scored with their first shot on target, shifted the momentum and forced NYCFC to chase the game.
Man of the Match
Tim Parker
Commanded the Red Bulls' defense, repelling wave after wave of NYCFC attacks and ensuring the clean sheet.
New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls: Match Preview
New York City FC and New York Red Bulls meet at Yankee Stadium with both sides seeking to snap winless streaks and reassert themselves in the playoff race. NYCFC sit 9th with 29 points from 24 games, just two points and three places ahead of their rivals, but neither side has tasted victory in their last five league outings (NYCFC: LDDDL, Red Bulls: LDLDL). With the standings congested in mid-table, a win here could be pivotal for postseason ambitions.
Statistically, the matchup tilts toward goals. NYCFC average 2.0 goals per home game (26 in 13), while Red Bulls' away defence is among the league's leakiest, conceding 25 in 12 road matches (2.08 per game). However, both attacks have sputtered lately: NYCFC have scored just four in their last five, and Red Bulls only two. The hosts have been sharper at home, generating 5.2 corners and 4.4 shots on target per game recently, but both teams' clean sheet rates are poor (NYCFC: 16.7%, Red Bulls: 8.3%), suggesting a strong likelihood of both nets bulging.
The model projects a moderate-scoring contest, with the most likely scenario being a 2-1 home win. NYCFC's superior home scoring rate and the Red Bulls' defensive frailty away from home are decisive, but neither side's recent form inspires confidence in a runaway result. Expect a game with chances at both ends, but the hosts' edge in attacking output at Yankee Stadium should prove the difference.
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Expected goals · model says 1.70
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls that most previews miss.
- 1NYCFC's home games average 3.54 total goals, while Red Bulls' away matches average 3.25.
- 2Red Bulls have failed to score before half-time in any of their last five league matches.
- 3The last ten H2H meetings have produced five matches with over 2.5 goals and five with two or fewer.
Who do you think wins: New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls?
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The Case For This New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls Prediction
Both New York City FC and New York Red Bulls arrive with muted momentum, but the underlying rates point to a moderate-scoring contest with a slight home edge. NYCFC's home attack (2.0 goals per game at Yankee Stadium) faces a Red Bulls defence conceding over two per match on the road, while neither side has demonstrated consistent defensive resilience. The most probable outcome is a narrow home win, but the draw is not far behind given both teams' recent inability to convert chances into victories.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →NYCFC average 2.0 goals scored per home game, Red Bulls concede 2.08 away.
Match Context
- →Red Bulls have failed to score in 3 of their last 5, but season BTTS rate remains high.
- →Both teams have won just 1 of their last 8 combined league matches.
🚩 New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6 corners for New York City FC and 5 for New York Red Bulls, for an expected total of 11. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (66%). Over 8.5: 77% · Over 10.5: 54%.
How New York City FC and New York Red Bulls Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
New York City FClast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
New York Red Bullslast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
NYCFC come in on a five-match winless run (LDDDL), but have at least found the net in four of those games. Red Bulls' recent form is even more anaemic, with three losses and two draws in their last five, and just two goals scored over that stretch. Both sides are struggling for momentum, but NYCFC's home output remains a relative bright spot.
New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Dominant in possession — 56% avg
Strengths
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls
NYCFC have won five of the last ten meetings with Red Bulls, losing three. The most recent MLS clash ended 1-1, but the fixture has swung toward the home side in recent years, with NYCFC winning three of the last four at Yankee Stadium. Goal totals have been volatile, with five of the last ten finishing over 2.5 goals.
New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
New York City FC wins
2
Draws
3
New York Red Bulls wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls
No bookmaker odds are available at the time of analysis, so value edges cannot be quantified. The model's probabilities suggest the home win and over 2.5 goals would be the first places to check for value if prices align with or exceed implied probabilities.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls
- ⚠️Recent form for both sides is poor, increasing variance in expected output.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis; value cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Lineups are not confirmed, so late squad changes could shift probabilities.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
New York City FC 2–1 New York Red BullsThe most probable outcome is a 2-1 win for New York City FC, underpinned by their 2.0 goals-per-game home attack against a Red Bulls defence conceding over two per away match. The greatest risk to this call is the recent attacking bluntness on both sides, which could drag the contest toward a low-scoring draw.
New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls: Common Questions
Who will win New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls?
The model gives New York City FC a 46% chance of victory, with a 31% probability for a draw and 23% for a Red Bulls win. NYCFC's strong home scoring rate and Red Bulls' poor away defence tip the balance slightly toward the hosts.
Will both teams score in NYCFC vs Red Bulls?
Both teams to score is rated at 56%, reflecting NYCFC's low clean sheet rate (16.7%) and Red Bulls' even lower (8.3%), despite both sides struggling for goals in recent weeks.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in this match?
There's a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals, based on the teams' season-long rates (NYCFC home games: 3.54 goals, Red Bulls away: 3.25) and the historical H2H trend, though recent attacking form is a moderating factor.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 11 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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