Newcastle vs Bournemouth Predictions
Premier League · England
Newcastle
Full Time
1 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 1
Bournemouth
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
@ 3(+21% edge)
Match Result
7.8/10Late Evanilson Strike Seals Dramatic Bournemouth Win at St. James' Park
Bournemouth snatched a dramatic 2-1 victory over Newcastle at St. James' Park, with Evanilson's late goal settling a fiercely contested Premier League encounter. The visitors took the lead in the first half through Marcus Tavernier, only for Newcastle to fight back and level the score after the break via Harvey Barnes. However, Bournemouth's resilience paid off as Evanilson struck in the 85th minute to secure all three points for the Cherries. Both sides matched each other in terms of shots (12 apiece) and shots on target (3 each), but Bournemouth's sharper edge in the final third proved decisive. The match was a physical battle, evidenced by a combined six yellow cards, and saw momentum swing back and forth before the visitors ultimately prevailed.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 2
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
32' — Goal
Marcus Tavernier puts Bournemouth ahead after a swift attacking move.
68' — Goal
Harvey Barnes equalizes for Newcastle, finishing off a well-worked team move.
85' — Goal
Evanilson scores the winner for Bournemouth, capitalizing on a late attacking surge.
Multiple' — Yellow Cards
Six yellow cards shown in a physical contest, with Bournemouth picking up four.
Newcastle
Newcastle started brightly, controlling possession (54%) and pushing Bournemouth back with their 4-3-3 formation. Despite creating several promising moments, they struggled to convert their dominance into clear chances, managing only three shots on target from 12 attempts. Harvey Barnes provided a glimmer of hope with his 68th-minute equalizer, but lapses in concentration at the back proved costly as they conceded late. The Magpies' midfield trio worked hard, but the attack lacked a clinical edge. Defensively, Newcastle were solid for long spells, but failed to deal with Bournemouth's late pressure. Two yellow cards reflected their frustration as the game slipped away late on.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Bournemouth
Bournemouth executed their 4-2-3-1 setup with discipline, absorbing Newcastle's early pressure and striking on the counter. Marcus Tavernier's opener in the 32nd minute rewarded their patient approach, and after conceding an equalizer, they regrouped and pressed for a winner. Evanilson's decisive 85th-minute goal capped a spirited performance, with Bournemouth showing both defensive grit and attacking intent when it mattered most. The Cherries matched Newcastle for shots and edged the set-piece battle with three corners. Four yellow cards underlined their combative approach, but they held their nerve in key moments to claim a vital away win.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Newcastle lined up in a 4-3-3 formation, aiming to control the midfield and stretch Bournemouth with width provided by Barnes and Elanga. Their possession-based approach saw them dominate the ball, but Bournemouth's compact 4-2-3-1 setup frustrated the hosts and limited clear chances. Bournemouth relied on quick transitions and targeted Newcastle's full-backs, with Tavernier and Evanilson pivotal in exploiting spaces. As the match wore on, both teams made substitutions to inject fresh legs, but the tactical discipline of Bournemouth's double pivot in midfield allowed them to weather Newcastle's pressure and strike decisively on the break. Set pieces were evenly contested, but it was Bournemouth's ability to capitalize on late openings that proved the difference.
Turning Point
Evanilson's 85th-minute goal, which broke the deadlock and sealed the win for Bournemouth.
Man of the Match
Evanilson
Delivered the decisive blow with a late winner and led the Bournemouth attack with purpose.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
39%
BTTS: Yes
46%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Newcastle vs Bournemouth(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: Yes@ 3
Both teams have high BTTS rates recently (Newcastle 4/5, Bournemouth 3/5), and both defences are conceding regularly. The model probability is much higher than the implied odds, offering strong value.
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Match Result: Draw@ 3.85
Both teams have drawn a high number of matches (Bournemouth 15/32, Newcastle 6/32), and H2H is draw-heavy (6/10). Model shows a notable edge over bookmaker odds.
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More Premier League Predictions
The Case For This Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction
This is a mid-table clash between two sides with similar records and little to separate them in terms of recent form. Newcastle are coming off three straight losses, struggling defensively and lacking attacking punch, while Bournemouth are unbeaten in five and just claimed a big away win at Arsenal. Both teams have a tendency to concede, but also to score, and head-to-head history is draw-heavy. Expect a cautious, competitive game with both sides likely to get on the scoresheet, but neither dominating.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Bournemouth unbeaten in 5, including an impressive win at Arsenal.
Defence
- →Newcastle on a 3-game losing streak, conceding 2+ in each.
- →Both teams average 1.4–1.5 goals scored and conceded per game.
Injuries & Team News
- →No key injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →H2H: 6 of last 10 meetings ended in draws.
- →Bournemouth have drawn 15 of 32 league games this season.
- →Newcastle home record (8W, 2D, 6L) is only slightly better than Bournemouth's away (4W, 7D, 5L).
- →Recent BTTS rates are high for both teams.
🚩 Newcastle vs Bournemouth Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.3 corners for Newcastle and 4.5 for Bournemouth, for an expected total of 8.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (62%). Over 8.5: 51% · Over 10.5: 26%.
How Newcastle and Bournemouth Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Newcastle vs Bournemouth Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Newcastlelast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Bournemouthlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Newcastle vs Bournemouth — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −5/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.8 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
What History Says: Newcastle vs Bournemouth
Newcastle vs Bournemouth Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
1
Newcastle wins
6
Draws
3
Bournemouth wins
Things to Watch: Newcastle vs Bournemouth
- ⚠️Some recent match stats (shots, possession) are missing, reducing granularity.
- ⚠️Both teams are mid-table with little at stake, so motivation could vary.
- ⚠️Lineups not confirmed; late injuries or rotations possible.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds suggest Newcastle are heavier favourites than the model.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Newcastle vs Bournemouth: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 13 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.