Niger vs Mauritania Prediction
Niger vs Mauritania: Model Favors Hosts in Low-Scoring Friendly Clash
International Friendly · World
Niger
AI Predicted Score
1 - 0
Mauritania
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.45
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
BTTS: Yes
47%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 2-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Niger vs Mauritania Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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The Case For This Niger vs Mauritania Prediction
Niger and Mauritania face off in a friendly international, with the model giving Niger a moderate edge in what is expected to be a tight, low-scoring affair. The analytics point to a predicted 1-0 win for Niger, with the hosts holding a 48% chance of victory and a 27% probability for a draw. Mauritania, meanwhile, are given a 25% shot at an away win. Both teams have struggled for goals in recent matches, and the model's expected goal outputs reflect this—Niger are projected at 1.43 goals after momentum adjustments, while Mauritania are at just 0.94. The most likely scorelines are 1-0, 1-1, and 2-0, all pointing toward a contest where defensive solidity may outshine attacking flair.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Model's blended expected goals: Niger 1.43, Mauritania 0.94 after momentum
Attack
- →Recent form momentum slightly suppresses both teams' attacking output
Match Context
- →Niger's Elo rating is 82 points higher than Mauritania's (1393 vs 1311)
- →Top three correct scores: 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (10%)
- →Both teams have struggled to score in recent matches
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
1.46 · 1.14
From xG
1.30 · 1.30
Blended
1.43 · 0.94
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Niger's cold attack trims their goals ×0.86; Mauritania's cold attack trims their goals ×0.85; Mauritania's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.18.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Niger goals, columns = Mauritania goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.4%
1-1
12.6%
2-0
9.6%
How the Model Reached This
The model starts by evaluating the Elo ratings, which show Niger with an 82-point advantage, translating to a baseline expected score of 0.616 for Niger and 0.384 for Mauritania. This Elo edge sets the stage for Niger as slight favorites. Next, the model considers expected goals (xG) based on attacking and defensive factors. Both sides lack robust data on chance quality and finishing, so the model leans on baseline factors, resulting in similar xG values (1.3 each). However, recent form momentum is then applied: Niger's attack is slightly cold (0.865 multiplier), and Mauritania's is even colder (0.85), while Mauritania's defense has been leaky (1.18 leak factor). These adjustments yield final expected goals of 1.43 for Niger and 0.94 for Mauritania. Finally, these expected goals are run through a Poisson model to generate exact scoreline probabilities. The most likely outcomes are 1-0, 1-1, and 2-0, with Niger favored but no outcome dominating, reflecting the low-scoring, competitive nature of the fixture.
More Friendlies Predictions
Niger vs Mauritania Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Nigerlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Mauritanialast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Recent form for both teams is uninspiring. Niger have picked up five points from their last five matches (LDDLW), averaging just 0.8 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, with two clean sheets. Mauritania have struggled even more, with just one point from their last five (LLLDL), scoring 0.4 and conceding 2 goals per game, and failing to keep a single clean sheet. Both sides have found goals hard to come by, and neither has shown much attacking momentum.
Niger vs Mauritania — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: Niger vs Mauritania
These teams have met just once in recent history, back in 2017, when Niger won 2-0 at home in a friendly. With only one prior meeting, there is little historical precedent to draw from, and both squads have likely changed significantly since then.
Niger vs Mauritania Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
1
Niger wins
0
Draws
0
Mauritania wins
Things to Watch: Niger vs Mauritania
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available; cannot assess value bets.
- ⚠️International friendlies often feature experimental lineups and unpredictable motivation.
- ⚠️Sparse data on player-level attacking and defensive factors may limit model accuracy.
- ⚠️Recent form is based on a small sample of matches for both teams.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Niger vs Mauritania: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 5 June 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.