OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis Predictions
Super League 1 · Greece
OFI
Full Time
0 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 1
Aris Thessalonikis
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.2(+5% edge)
Match Result
6.8/10Aris Strike Late to Sink OFI in Heraklion Showdown
Aris Thessalonikis secured a crucial 2-0 away victory over OFI at the Pagritio Stadium, with goals arriving at both ends of the match to cap a disciplined and opportunistic display. The visitors drew first blood early, then weathered periods of home pressure before sealing the result with a late strike. OFI, despite enjoying the lion's share of possession (58%), struggled to convert their territorial dominance into genuine scoring chances, registering just one shot on target from 11 attempts. Aris, meanwhile, were clinical when it mattered, making the most of their 42% possession and seven corners to carve out three shots on target, two of which found the net. The match was a physical affair, with 29 fouls and six yellow cards issued, as both sides fought for control. Ultimately, Aris's defensive resilience and sharpness in front of goal proved decisive, leaving OFI frustrated on home soil.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
0 - 2
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
11' — Goal
Aris open the scoring with an early strike, seizing the initiative.
45' — Yellow Card
OFI pick up their first booking as frustration builds before halftime.
60' — Yellow Card
Aris's physical approach earns another caution as they protect their lead.
86' — Goal
Aris double their advantage with a late goal, putting the result beyond doubt.
OFI
OFI started brightly and controlled much of the ball, but their 3-4-3 formation failed to break down a resolute Aris defense. Despite having 58% possession and matching Aris for total shots (11), the hosts managed just a single effort on target, highlighting their lack of cutting edge in the final third. OFI's midfield trio of Karachalios, Kanellopoulos, and Shengelia worked hard to dictate play, but the attacking trio of Fountas, Salcedo, and Nuss were largely kept quiet. Defensively, OFI were undone by an early lapse and a late counter, and their inability to threaten from set pieces (just three corners) further limited their comeback prospects. Two yellow cards reflected their growing frustration as the match slipped away.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Aris Thessalonikis
Aris Thessalonikis executed a near-perfect away game plan, absorbing pressure and striking decisively at key moments. Their 4-4-2 shape provided defensive solidity, especially in wide areas, and allowed them to spring forward on the break. Despite seeing less of the ball (42% possession), Aris matched OFI's shot count and were more efficient in front of goal, converting two of their three shots on target. The midfield pairing of Račić and Jensen anchored the side, while the front duo—particularly Carles Pérez—proved a constant threat. Aris's physical approach (21 fouls, four bookings) disrupted OFI's rhythm and ultimately helped them see out the result.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
OFI lined up in a 3-4-3, seeking to dominate midfield possession and use wingbacks to stretch play. While this approach allowed them to control the ball, Aris's compact 4-4-2 shape limited space in central areas and forced OFI into wide, less dangerous positions. OFI's inability to turn possession into quality chances was evident in their single shot on target. Aris, meanwhile, set up to absorb pressure and hit on the break, with their wingers and strikers exploiting gaps left by OFI's advanced wingbacks. Their set-piece threat was notable, winning seven corners, and their physicality disrupted OFI's rhythm. Substitutions made little impact on the tactical balance, as Aris remained disciplined and focused on protecting their lead.
Turning Point
Aris's late goal in the 86th minute, which killed off any hopes of an OFI comeback and sealed the three points.
Man of the Match
Carles Pérez
Led the line with intelligence, scored a decisive goal, and was a constant outlet on the counter.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 1.00
Over 2.5 Goals
35%
BTTS: Yes
42%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.2
Both teams have similar recent form, low-scoring tendencies, and a high draw rate in the season and H2H. The model gives a slightly higher probability for a draw than the odds imply.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.7
Both teams average under 2.5 goals per game this season (Aris 28.6% over 2.5, OFI only 67.9% but trending under in recent matches). Recent H2H also trends under. Model probability offers a small edge.
Read more ↓
More Super League 1 Predictions
The Case For This OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis Prediction
This fixture sees OFI host Aris Thessalonikis in a contest between two closely matched sides. OFI's recent form is slightly stronger, especially at home, but Aris are tough to beat on their travels and have a high draw rate. Both teams have struggled for goals recently, and defensive solidity has improved with two clean sheets each in their last five. The H2H history is balanced, with draws and narrow wins common. Expect a tactical, low-scoring match with few clear chances.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →OFI have won 3 of the last 5 H2H at home, but draws are frequent in this matchup.
- →Aris have the highest draw rate in the league (13 draws in 28), and OFI have no home draws but a balanced W/L split.
Defence
- →Both teams have 2 clean sheets in their last 5 and average 1 goal scored per game in that span.
- →OFI's home attack (1.57 goals/game) faces Aris's away defense (1.21 conceded/game), suggesting a tight contest.
Match Context
- →Recent matches for both sides have trended under 2.5 goals.
🚩 OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 3.5 corners for OFI and 5.6 for Aris Thessalonikis, for an expected total of 9.1. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 56% · Over 10.5: 31%.
How OFI and Aris Thessalonikis Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
OFIlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Aris Thessalonikislast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 65.52% of games this season
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
What History Says: OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis
OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
OFI wins
1
Draws
4
Aris Thessalonikis wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis
- ⚠️Lineups are not available for this match, so late injuries or rotations could impact the outcome.
- ⚠️Some match stats (shots, possession) are missing for a few recent games, slightly reducing model confidence.
- ⚠️Motivation level for both teams is unclear from standings data (mid-table, not in title/relegation battle).
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 2 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.