Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI Predictions
Super League 1 · Greece
Aris Thessalonikis
Full Time
2 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 1
OFI
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: OFI Win
@ 4.33(+4% edge)
Match Result
7.3/10Aris Edge OFI in Fiery Clash at Kleanthis Vikelides
Aris Thessalonikis claimed a hard-fought 2-1 victory over OFI at the Kleanthis Vikelides, riding an early breakthrough and a second-half surge to overcome the visitors’ superior possession. The hosts struck first in just the 3rd minute, setting the tone for an intense contest marked by physicality and tactical discipline. Despite OFI’s 58% possession and late pressure, Aris’ clinical finishing and defensive resilience proved decisive. The match saw Aris create the clearer chances, registering 17 shots with 10 on target, while OFI struggled to convert their spells of control into tangible opportunities, managing only 3 shots on target from 10 attempts. A late OFI goal in the 90th minute set up a tense finale, but Aris held firm to secure all three points, despite a flurry of yellow cards in a match that rarely lacked for drama.
🔮 AI Prediction Report
PSYCHIC MODEPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results3/3 hit
Key Moments
3' — Goal
Tino Kadewere opens the scoring for Aris with an early strike.
68' — Goal
Aris double their lead with a well-worked move, extending their advantage.
90' — Goal
OFI pull one back in stoppage time, setting up a tense finish.
Multiple' — Yellow Cards
Aris pick up five yellow cards, reflecting the match's intensity.
Multiple' — Yellow Cards
OFI receive two yellow cards amid a physical battle.
Aris Thessalonikis
Aris started on the front foot, capitalizing on their early momentum with a goal in the opening minutes. While they ceded possession to OFI, Aris remained compact and dangerous on the break, carving out 17 shots and forcing the OFI goalkeeper into action 10 times. Their defensive unit, marshaled by Fabiano and Fredrik Jensen, absorbed pressure well, though the high foul count (16) and five yellow cards reflected their combative approach. The hosts' ability to strike in key moments and maintain focus under late pressure was commendable, even as fatigue and discipline became an issue in the closing stages.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
OFI
OFI controlled the majority of possession (58%) and looked to dictate play through midfield, but struggled to break down Aris' disciplined defense. Their approach generated only 3 shots on target from 10 attempts, and they were largely restricted to speculative efforts. OFI’s late goal in the 90th minute was a testament to their persistence, but ultimately came too late to alter the outcome. Their physical approach led to 23 fouls and two yellow cards, disrupting the flow but failing to unsettle Aris enough to secure a result.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Aris lined up in a 4-2-3-1, prioritizing defensive solidity and quick transitions. Their double pivot shielded the back four effectively, while the attacking trio behind Kadewere exploited spaces left by OFI’s advanced wing-backs. The hosts were content to concede possession, focusing on breaking quickly and efficiently, as evidenced by their high shot and on-target numbers relative to possession. OFI’s 3-4-2-1 aimed to control the midfield and stretch Aris with width from Dickmann and Athanasiou. However, their dominance in possession rarely translated into clear chances, with Aris’ compact shape stifling central progress. OFI’s late push, including a goal in the 90th minute, came as Aris tired and dropped deeper, but it was ultimately not enough.
Turning Point
Aris’ second goal in the 68th minute gave them a crucial cushion, allowing them to withstand OFI’s late surge.
Man of the Match
Tino Kadewere
Scored the vital opener and led the line with energy and purpose throughout.
Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI: Match Preview
Aris Thessalonikis enter their home opener off a strong end to last season and a recent cup win, carrying a 'WLWWW' form string and averaging 2.4 goals per game in their last five across all competitions. OFI, ranked third on opening day, come in with a 'WLLLW' run but just one clean sheet in their last five, conceding two per game on average. Both sides are looking to set a positive tone in the new Super League campaign, but neither has shown defensive solidity in recent outings.
From a statistical perspective, the matchup is defined by high recent scoring rates and modest defensive numbers on both sides. Aris's attack, led by Kadewere and Racic, has found the net in every recent match, while OFI's Fountas has been a consistent threat, including a brace in their latest European outing. Both teams' last five matches average over 4 goals combined, and their H2H history is similarly open, with six of the last ten meetings producing at least three goals. Corners and cards rates are moderate, with neither side standing out for set-piece threat or disciplinary issues.
The model expects a competitive, open contest with Aris's home advantage and attacking output tipping the balance. A 2-1 home win is the likeliest outcome, reflecting both teams' ability to score but lack of recent clean sheets. The main uncertainty lies in early-season volatility and the unknown impact of summer squad changes, but the underlying scoring rates point to goals at both ends.
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Expected goals · model says 1.65
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI that most previews miss.
- 1Aris have scored in every one of their last five matches and failed to keep a clean sheet in three of them.
- 2OFI's last five matches average just 1.6 corners per game, indicating low set-piece volume.
- 3Six of the last ten H2H meetings have finished with at least three goals, and BTTS has landed in seven.
Who do you think wins: Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 2–1
2-1 has the highest single probability at 19% based on both teams' recent scoring rates (Aris 2.4, OFI 1.8 goals per game last 5) and the H2H tendency for both to score.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 2.15
Both sides' last 5 games average over 4 goals combined per match (Aris 2.4 for, 1.6 against; OFI 1.8 for, 2.0 against), and 6 of the last 10 H2H have seen at least 3 goals.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes@ 1.96
BTTS has landed in 3 of the last 5 for both teams and in 7 of the last 10 H2H, with neither defence showing high recent clean sheet rates.
More Super League 1 Predictions
The Case For This Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a moderately high-scoring contest between two sides whose recent defensive numbers lag behind their attacking output. Aris Thessalonikis have averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded across their last five, while OFI's matches have featured an average of 3.8 total goals, with 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded per game. Both teams have shown a tendency to concede, and the head-to-head record is balanced but goal-rich, with six of the last ten meetings seeing three or more goals.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Aris average 2.4 goals scored per game over their last five competitive and friendly matches.
Defence
- →OFI have conceded 2.0 goals per game on average in their last five, with just one clean sheet.
Match Context
- →Head-to-head: 6 of the last 10 meetings have produced at least three goals.
🚩 Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.6 corners for Aris Thessalonikis and 4.2 for OFI, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 64% · Over 10.5: 39%.
How Aris Thessalonikis and OFI Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Aris Thessalonikislast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
OFIlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Aris Thessalonikis have won four of their last five, including a cup win and a strong finish to last season, scoring at least twice in each of those victories. OFI's form is more mixed, with a recent Europa League win but three defeats in their last five, and defensive frailties evident in conceding two or more in four of those games.
Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI
The head-to-head record is finely balanced, with OFI winning five of the last ten and Aris four. Both teams have enjoyed away wins in this fixture, and recent meetings have been high-scoring, with BTTS landing in seven and over 2.5 goals in six of the last ten.
Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Aris Thessalonikis wins
1
Draws
4
OFI wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI
The model's probabilities are broadly in line with the bookmaker's 1x2 odds, with only a minor edge (4%) on the away win at current prices. No significant value is found on the home or draw selections, and the absence of goal market odds limits the identification of strong value opportunities.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI
- ⚠️No league matches played yet this season; all averages are from last season, friendlies, and cup matches.
- ⚠️Lineups and tactical setups are unknown at time of prediction.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds are only available for the 1x2 market; no goal or BTTS odds to check for value.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Aris Thessalonikis 2–1 OFIAris Thessalonikis are projected to edge this 2-1, with their recent attacking rate (2.4 goals per game) and a history of high-scoring H2H encounters the strongest statistical drivers. The main risk to this view is the lack of league data for the new season, leaving open the possibility of tactical shifts or defensive improvements not yet captured in the numbers.
Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI: Common Questions
Who will win Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
The model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 48% chance of victory, with the draw at 28% and OFI at 24%. This reflects Aris's stronger recent scoring form and home advantage, but the margin is not overwhelming.
Will both teams score in Aris vs OFI?
Both teams to score is rated a 52% probability, supported by both sides scoring in 3 of their last 5 matches and 7 of the last 10 H2H meetings.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in this match?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 54%, with both teams averaging a combined 4.0 goals per game in their last five matches and six of the last ten H2H going over this line.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 22 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.