Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI Predictions
Super League 1 · Greece
Olympiakos Piraeus
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 0
OFI
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 1.75(+38% edge)
Match Result
7/10OFI Stun Olympiakos in Piraeus with Smash-and-Grab Victory
Olympiakos Piraeus suffered a shock 0-1 defeat at home to OFI in a tightly contested Super League 1 clash at the Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. Despite dominating possession (62%) and racking up 20 shots, the hosts were left frustrated by their lack of clinical finishing and a resolute OFI defense. The decisive moment came in the 66th minute when OFI capitalized on a rare opportunity to snatch the lead, and ultimately, all three points. Olympiakos pressed relentlessly, creating numerous chances and winning eight corners, but their four shots on target failed to breach the inspired N. Christogeorgos in the OFI goal. OFI, meanwhile, were disciplined and opportunistic, making the most of their limited attacking forays and holding firm under late pressure to secure a memorable away win.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
2 - 0
Actual
0 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
66' — Goal
OFI break the deadlock with a clinical finish, capitalizing on a rare opportunity.
74' — Yellow Card
Olympiakos receive their only yellow card as frustration mounts.
80-90' — Sustained Pressure
Olympiakos pour forward in search of an equalizer, but OFI hold firm.
Olympiakos Piraeus
Olympiakos controlled the tempo with 62% possession and generated a barrage of 20 shots, but only four were on target, highlighting their inefficiency in front of goal. The midfield trio of Puerta, Freuler, and Fortounis dictated play, but the final ball and finishing touch were consistently lacking. Defensively, the back four were largely untroubled until the crucial lapse that led to OFI's winner. Despite their attacking intent, Olympiakos were unable to convert dominance into goals, and frustration grew as the match wore on. A solitary yellow card reflected their increasing desperation late on, but it was ultimately a day to forget for the home side.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
OFI
OFI executed their game plan to perfection, sitting deep in a 3-4-2-1 formation and absorbing waves of Olympiakos pressure. Although they saw just 38% of the ball and managed only 13 shots, their defensive organization was exemplary, limiting Olympiakos to just four shots on target. When their chance arrived in the 66th minute, they took it clinically, demonstrating the efficiency that their hosts lacked. Goalkeeper N. Christogeorgos was outstanding, commanding his area and making key saves. The back three, marshaled by A. Poungouras, remained disciplined throughout, while the midfield worked tirelessly to disrupt Olympiakos' rhythm and spring the occasional counter.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Olympiakos lined up in a 4-2-3-1, aiming to dominate possession and use the creative talents of Fortounis and Chiquinho to unlock the OFI defense. Their full-backs pushed high, and the midfield double pivot allowed them to recycle possession and keep OFI pinned back. However, the lack of a cutting edge in the final third was glaring, as their 20 shots yielded little real threat. OFI’s 3-4-2-1 formation was built for resilience, with three center-backs and a compact midfield shield. They ceded possession willingly, focusing on maintaining their shape and springing forward quickly when the opportunity arose. The wing-backs provided occasional width, but the emphasis was on defensive solidity and exploiting transitional moments, which ultimately paid off.
Turning Point
OFI’s goal in the 66th minute—against the run of play—forced Olympiakos to chase the game and exposed their lack of attacking composure.
Man of the Match
N. Christogeorgos
Produced a string of vital saves and commanded his box superbly to keep a clean sheet under relentless Olympiakos pressure.
Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI: Match Preview
Olympiakos Piraeus arrive in Piraeus unbeaten in their opening three league games, with two wins and a draw, and riding a five-match unbeaten streak in all competitions. Their defensive record is a highlight, conceding just once in three league outings. OFI sit three points behind in sixth, having won both home games but lost their only away fixture at Aris Thessalonikis. The table and recent form point to Olympiakos as clear favourites, but the market's 1.20 home price leaves little room for error.
Statistically, this is a clash between Olympiakos' defensive discipline and an OFI side that struggles to create chances away from home. Olympiakos average just 0.6 goals conceded and 3 clean sheets from their last five, while OFI have managed only 1 goal in their single away league match and just 2.4 shots on target per game recently. The head-to-head record is lopsided: Olympiakos have won the last 10 meetings, keeping 7 clean sheets and outscoring OFI 24-2. Set pieces and corners are unlikely to swing the match, with neither side posting standout numbers in those departments.
The model expects Olympiakos to control the tempo and territory, limiting OFI's attacking opportunities and grinding out a low-scoring win. With Olympiakos' matches trending under 2.5 goals and OFI rarely threatening the net in this fixture, the best value lies in 'BTTS: No' and under goals markets, rather than chasing a short-priced home win.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI
The market's heavy lean towards Olympiakos at 1.20 leaves little value on the home win, especially with their attack yet to fully click this season. The model finds the largest edge on 'BTTS: No' at 1.75, where the probability gap is over 20 points, and also spots value on under 2.5 goals at 2.7. Draw backers also find a small edge at 6.25, but the defensive markets are where the model's confidence is highest.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 1.71
Olympiakos have kept three clean sheets in their last five, OFI have failed to score in three of their last five against Olympiakos, and the model assigns a 79% chance to 'BTTS: No' versus an implied 57% from the market.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 2.7
Olympiakos matches have seen under 2.5 goals in all three league games this season, and OFI away from home have averaged just 1 goal per game; the model's 46% probability for under 2.5 goals is significantly higher than the market's 37% implied.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Draw@ 6.68
While Olympiakos are clear favourites, the model gives a 19% draw probability versus the market's 16%, and with Olympiakos drawing at Volos recently, there's a small value edge at a big price.
Read more ↓
Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI that most previews miss.
- 1Seven of the last ten Olympiakos-OFI meetings have finished with Olympiakos winning to nil.
- 2Olympiakos matches have gone under 2.5 goals in 100% of their league games this season.
- 3OFI have averaged just 2.4 corners per game across their last five matches, indicating limited attacking pressure.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 2.15
Expected goals · model says 0.65
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS: Yes
42%
Likely Scores
2-0 · 1-0 · 3-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
More Super League 1 Predictions
The Case For This Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI Prediction
Olympiakos Piraeus enter this fixture on a strong run, unbeaten in their last five and boasting a perfect 10-win streak against OFI in head-to-head meetings. OFI, though sixth in the early table, have yet to claim a point away from home this season and have struggled to break down top defences on their travels. The market is heavily skewed towards Olympiakos, but the data suggests the real value lies elsewhere, particularly in defensive markets. Olympiakos' defensive solidity is underlined by three clean sheets in their last five and a stingy 0.33 goals conceded per league match. Their attack, while dominant at home, has not been prolific (just one goal scored in each of their three league games), and their matches have consistently trended under 2.5 goals. OFI's away attack has been blunt—averaging just 1 goal per away game—and their last five matches have seen just one instance of both teams scoring. Set-piece threat is modest on both sides, with Olympiakos averaging 5.8 corners and OFI just 2.4 per game recently. Given Olympiakos' historical dominance in this fixture (10 straight wins, 7 clean sheets), the likeliest scenario is another home win to nil, but the market has already compressed the home odds. The model expects a controlled Olympiakos performance, with the best value on 'BTTS: No' and unders, given the low-scoring trend and OFI's limited threat against top-six opposition.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Olympiakos have won all of the last 10 head-to-heads against OFI, with 7 clean sheets.
- →Olympiakos have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 matches and conceded just 1 goal in 3 league games.
Match Context
- →OFI have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 away matches against Olympiakos.
🚩 Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 7.3 corners for Olympiakos Piraeus and 4.2 for OFI, for an expected total of 11.5. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (71%). Over 8.5: 81% · Over 10.5: 60%.
How Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Olympiakos Piraeuslast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
OFIlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Olympiakos are unbeaten in their last five, including three wins and a draw in their opening league fixtures, conceding just once in that span. OFI have also started brightly at home but lost their only away league game, and their attack has looked limited on the road. Both sides are defensively sound, but Olympiakos' momentum and home record set them apart.
Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +66.67% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI
Olympiakos have dominated this fixture, winning all of the last ten meetings and keeping seven clean sheets in the process. The last three encounters have all ended 3-0 to Olympiakos, underlining a clear pattern of home superiority and defensive solidity against OFI.
Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
10
Olympiakos Piraeus wins
0
Draws
0
OFI wins
Things to Watch: Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI
- ⚠️Early season data means small sample sizes; attacking and defensive trends may not be fully established.
- ⚠️OFI's away form is based on a single league match so far, limiting reliability.
- ⚠️Olympiakos' attack has not been prolific, so a narrow win or even a draw is a plausible risk.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Olympiakos Piraeus 2–0 OFIOlympiakos are forecast to win 2-0, with the strongest data point being their 10-match winning streak against OFI, including seven clean sheets. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if Olympiakos' attack continues to underwhelm, opening the door for a low-scoring draw if OFI can frustrate early.
Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI: Common Questions
Who will win Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI?
The model gives Olympiakos a 72% chance of victory, with just 9% for OFI and 19% for the draw. Olympiakos have won all of the last 10 meetings between these sides.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos vs OFI?
Both teams to score is rated just a 21% chance by the model, with Olympiakos keeping three clean sheets in their last five and OFI failing to score in four of their last five away H2Hs.
Is there value in betting against the market favourite Olympiakos?
With Olympiakos priced at 1.20 (implied 83%) but the model at 72%, the home win is overvalued. The best value is on 'BTTS: No' (model 79% vs market 57%) and under 2.5 goals (model 46% vs market 37%).
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 9 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.