Osasuna vs Espanyol Predictions
La Liga · Spain
Osasuna
Full Time
1 - 2
AI predicted 2 - 1
Espanyol
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Double Chance: Osasuna or Draw
Match Result
7.8/10Espanyol Edge Osasuna in Pamplona Thriller Despite Home Onslaught
Espanyol clinched a dramatic 2-1 victory over Osasuna at Estadio El Sadar, weathering a relentless second-half siege from the hosts. Despite Osasuna's dominance in possession and a barrage of 21 shots, it was the visitors who proved more clinical, capitalizing on key moments to secure all three points. The match saw Espanyol take the lead through Kike García in the 27th minute, only for Osasuna to draw level shortly after halftime via Ante Budimir. However, Espanyol responded almost immediately, with Edu Expósito restoring their advantage in the 53rd minute. Osasuna pressed furiously for an equalizer, but a combination of resolute defending and sharp goalkeeping from Marko Dmitrović ensured Espanyol held on for a hard-fought win.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
1 - 2
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
27' — Goal
Kike García gives Espanyol the lead with a well-taken finish.
49' — Goal
Ante Budimir equalizes for Osasuna, finishing off a flowing move.
53' — Goal
Edu Expósito restores Espanyol's lead with a sharp strike.
65' — Yellow Card
Pol Lozano (Espanyol) booked for a tactical foul as Osasuna pressed.
78' — Yellow Card
Valentin Rosier (Osasuna) cautioned for a late challenge.
85' — Save
Marko Dmitrović makes a crucial save to deny Budimir a second goal.
Osasuna
Osasuna put in a spirited display, dominating possession with 68% and firing 21 shots, eight of which were on target. They controlled the tempo, especially in the second half, and created numerous opportunities through the midfield trio of Rubén García, Aimar Oroz, and Victor Muñoz. However, their finishing let them down, and they struggled to break down Espanyol's compact defensive block after falling behind for a second time. Despite their attacking intent and seven corners, Osasuna could only breach the Espanyol defense once, and their inability to convert pressure into goals ultimately cost them at least a point.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Espanyol
Espanyol executed a disciplined away performance, soaking up pressure and striking decisively on the counter. With just 32% possession and seven shots, they made their opportunities count, scoring twice at crucial junctures. The defensive line, marshaled by Leandro Cabrera and Clemens Riedel, stood firm under sustained Osasuna pressure, while Marko Dmitrović delivered a commanding display in goal. Espanyol's midfield worked tirelessly to disrupt Osasuna's rhythm, and their forwards, Kike García and Edu Expósito, were clinical when chances arose. The team's resilience and tactical organization were key to securing the victory.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Osasuna lined up in a 4-2-3-1, aiming to dominate midfield and overload Espanyol's defensive lines, which they managed for large spells, especially after halftime. Their full-backs pushed high, and the attacking midfielders frequently rotated positions to create space. However, Espanyol's 4-4-2 provided defensive solidity, with two banks of four sitting deep and compact, forcing Osasuna to shoot from distance or attempt intricate play through crowded central areas. Espanyol looked to break quickly when regaining possession, with their forwards exploiting gaps left by Osasuna's attacking full-backs. The visitors' tactical discipline, combined with timely interventions and smart fouling, frustrated Osasuna's rhythm. Despite conceding possession and territory, Espanyol's set-piece defending and counter-attacking threat proved decisive.
Turning Point
Edu Expósito's goal in the 53rd minute, coming just four minutes after Osasuna's equalizer, swung momentum back to Espanyol and ultimately sealed the win.
Man of the Match
Marko Dmitrović
His string of vital saves under intense pressure preserved Espanyol's lead and secured the three points.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.65
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS: Yes
53%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Osasuna vs Espanyol Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Osasuna vs Espanyol?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Osasuna vs Espanyol(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Osasuna Win
Osasuna have a strong home record (9W 5D 3L), Espanyol are poor away (4W 5D 9L), and Osasuna have dominated recent H2H in Pamplona. Espanyol's recent form is very poor.
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Double Chance: Osasuna or Draw
Osasuna's home reliability and Espanyol's away struggles make home/draw highly probable. H2H supports Osasuna avoiding defeat.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have over 2.5 goal rates near 50% and recent Osasuna home games have seen goals. Both sides have leaky defenses.
More La Liga Predictions
The Case For This Osasuna vs Espanyol Prediction
Osasuna welcome Espanyol in a mid-table La Liga clash where the home side's strong record at El Sadar contrasts with Espanyol's poor away form. Osasuna have been inconsistent lately but have shown more attacking threat at home and historically have dominated this H2H fixture. Espanyol are struggling for goals and have lost four of their last five, conceding heavily. Expect Osasuna to control the game, with the home crowd pushing them for a positive result. Goals are likely, especially in the second half, but Espanyol's lack of attacking punch away from home limits their upside.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Osasuna have won 5 of last 10 H2H, unbeaten in last 5 at home vs Espanyol
Attack
- →Espanyol last 5 form: LLDLL, only 0.4 goals scored/game
- →Osasuna last 5 form: LLWLD, 1.2 goals scored/game
Injuries & Team News
- →No major injuries reported
Match Context
- →Osasuna's home record: 9W 5D 3L, 29 GF, 20 GA
- →Espanyol's away record: 4W 5D 9L, 20 GF, 30 GA
- →Both teams have over 2.5 goals in ~50% of matches
🚩 Osasuna vs Espanyol Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.4 corners for Osasuna and 5 for Espanyol, for an expected total of 11.4. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (70%). Over 8.5: 80% · Over 10.5: 59%.
How Osasuna and Espanyol Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Osasuna vs Espanyol Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Osasunalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Espanyollast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Osasuna vs Espanyol — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Osasuna vs Espanyol
Osasuna vs Espanyol Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Osasuna wins
4
Draws
2
Espanyol wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Osasuna vs Espanyol
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Osasuna vs Espanyol
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Some recent match stats (shots, xG) are missing, reducing model confidence.
- ⚠️Both teams are mid-table with little to play for, which could impact motivation and game state.
- ⚠️Espanyol's lineup data incomplete for several recent games.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Osasuna vs Espanyol: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.