Oviedo vs Alaves Predictions
La Liga · Spain
Oviedo
Full Time
0 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 2
Alaves
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Double Chance: Draw or Alaves
Match Result
6/10Alaves Edge Oviedo in Tense Battle Despite Home Side’s 70% Possession
Alaves snatched a vital away victory at the Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, overcoming a dominant Oviedo side that controlled 70% of possession but failed to register a single shot on target. In a match defined by defensive resilience and clinical counter-attacking, Alaves made the most of their limited opportunities, registering the game's only shot on target and ultimately securing all three points. Oviedo, despite dictating the tempo and amassing five corners, struggled to break down a compact Alaves defense. The visitors, meanwhile, absorbed pressure and capitalized on Oviedo's inability to convert possession into meaningful chances, sealing a hard-fought win that leaves the home side ruing missed opportunities.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
0 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
N/A' — Goal
Alaves scored with their only shot on target, capitalizing on a rare opportunity against the run of play.
Oviedo
Oviedo dominated the ball with a commanding 70% possession and forced five corners, but their lack of attacking penetration proved costly. Despite their territorial advantage, the hosts failed to register a single shot on target from five attempts, highlighting their struggles in the final third. Defensively, they were largely untroubled but ultimately undone by Alaves' solitary effort on goal.
Strengths
Weaknesses
Alaves
Alaves executed a disciplined away performance, conceding possession but remaining organized and difficult to break down. Despite only having 30% of the ball, they managed seven shots and crucially registered the match's only effort on target, which proved decisive. Their physicality was evident in 17 fouls, but their defensive structure and ability to capitalize on a rare chance secured a valuable win.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Oviedo lined up to dominate possession, circulating the ball patiently and pushing for openings, but their approach lacked verticality and incisiveness in the final third. Alaves, by contrast, sat deep in a compact shape, inviting pressure and looking to break quickly. The visitors' tactical discipline was evident in their willingness to concede possession and focus on defensive solidity, while Oviedo's lack of width and creativity left them unable to penetrate the Alaves block. Set pieces offered Oviedo some hope with five corners, but Alaves defended them resolutely. The physical nature of the contest was reflected in 30 combined fouls, with Alaves particularly aggressive in disrupting Oviedo's rhythm. Both sides stuck to their tactical plans throughout, with Alaves' counter-attacking intent ultimately rewarded.
Turning Point
Alaves' solitary shot on target, resulting in the only goal of the match, proved the decisive moment.
Man of the Match
Alaves goalscorer
Took the only real chance of the match to secure a crucial away win for his side.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.50
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
BTTS: Yes
53%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Oviedo vs Alaves Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Oviedo vs Alaves?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Oviedo vs Alaves(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Double Chance: Draw or Alaves
Alaves have a stronger attack, have not failed to score in their last 5, and Oviedo have the league's worst home attack. Both teams are in poor form, but Alaves' higher scoring rate and greater motivation to avoid relegation gives them an edge to avoid defeat.
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BTTS: Yes
Alaves have seen BTTS in all of their last 5, and Oviedo's defense has been leaky. Both teams have a low clean sheet rate this season.
Correct Score: 1–2
Alaves' attack is more productive, Oviedo concede more than a goal per game at home, and recent H2H and form suggest a narrow away win is plausible.
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More La Liga Predictions
The Case For This Oviedo vs Alaves Prediction
This is a high-stakes relegation battle with Oviedo bottom of the table and Alaves just above the drop zone. Oviedo's home attack is the weakest in La Liga, averaging just over 0.5 goals per game at home, while Alaves, despite defensive frailties, have scored in every one of their last 5 matches. Both teams have struggled for clean sheets, and recent form suggests a scrappy, tense match with goals at both ends. Alaves' greater attacking output and slightly better away performance make them favorites to avoid defeat, but a draw is also a strong possibility.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Alaves have scored in each of their last 5 matches (1.8 goals/game average).
Attack
- →Oviedo have the lowest home goals scored in La Liga (9 in 17 home games).
- →Oviedo have failed to score in only 1 of their last 5, but their overall attack is weak.
Defence
- →Both teams have poor clean sheet rates: Oviedo 26%, Alaves 8.6%.
Injuries & Team News
- →No major injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →Recent H2H is balanced (1W/2D/1L each), but last meeting ended 1-1.
- →Alaves have more at stake, sitting just above relegation and likely more motivated.
🚩 Oviedo vs Alaves Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for Oviedo and 4 for Alaves, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (56%). Over 8.5: 57% · Over 10.5: 32%.
How Oviedo and Alaves Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Oviedo vs Alaves Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Oviedolast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Alaveslast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Oviedo vs Alaves — Last 5 Matches
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.2 goals/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
What History Says: Oviedo vs Alaves
Oviedo vs Alaves Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
1
Oviedo wins
2
Draws
2
Alaves wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Oviedo vs Alaves
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Oviedo vs Alaves
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Some match stats (shots, lineups) missing for recent games.
- ⚠️Both teams' form is inconsistent; relegation pressure can lead to unpredictable outcomes.
- ⚠️Small H2H sample size.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Oviedo vs Alaves: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.