Panama vs New Zealand Prediction
Panama Hold the Edge Over New Zealand in Low-Scoring Friendly Clash
International Friendly · World
Panama
AI Predicted Score
1 - 0
New Zealand
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.40
Expected goals · model says 0.80
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
BTTS: Yes
41%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Panama vs New Zealand Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Panama vs New Zealand?
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The Case For This Panama vs New Zealand Prediction
Panama enter this international friendly with a notable advantage, as reflected by a 152-point Elo gap (1737 vs 1585) and a home win probability of 51.3% according to the model. Both sides have struggled for form, but Panama's attacking unit, led by midfielder I. Díaz (13.1 xG, 61 goals), is expected to create more danger than a New Zealand side that has managed just 0.8 goals per game over their last five matches. Defensively, both teams display similar suppression factors (1.25), but New Zealand's recent defensive frailty (conceding an average of 3 goals per game in their last five) gives Panama a further edge. The model's final expected goals lines—1.42 for Panama and 0.81 for New Zealand—point to a tight contest, with the most likely outcome a 1-0 win for the hosts.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
xG factor — Panama 0.83× · New Zealand 0.76×
- →Momentum adjustments slightly dampen both sides' attacks, especially New Zealand's (0.865 multiplier).
Defence
Suppression — Panama 1.25× · New Zealand 1.25×
- →Both teams' defences have identical suppression factors (1.25), but New Zealand have leaked 3 goals per game recently.
Match Context
- →Panama's Elo rating is 152 points higher than New Zealand's (1737 vs 1585).
- →Panama's final expected goals: 1.42; New Zealand's: 0.81.
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
xG Attack Strength
Top-11 expected-goals output, adjusted for finishing efficiency and chance quality. 1.00× is the tournament median.
Panama
0.83×Top-11 xG
73
Finishing
1.20×
Chance qual.
0.88×
- I. Díaz M13.1 xG
- C. Yanis M8.9 xG
- F. Escobar D8.3 xG
- A. Carrasquilla M7.8 xG
- T. Rodríguez F7.0 xG
New Zealand
0.76×Top-11 xG
53
Finishing
1.20×
Chance qual.
0.88×
- B. Waine F8.0 xG
- L. Bayliss M6.6 xG
- E. Just M6.5 xG
- C. McCowatt M6.2 xG
- L. Rogerson M5.2 xG
Defensive Suppression
Defender & midfield ball-winning (tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks). Higher = more suppression of the opponent's attack.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
1.60 · 1.00
From xG
0.86 · 0.79
Blended
1.42 · 0.81
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Panama's cold attack trims their goals ×0.92; New Zealand's cold attack trims their goals ×0.86; New Zealand's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.18.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Panama goals, columns = New Zealand goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 15 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.3%
1-1
12.4%
2-0
10.8%
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Panama vs New Zealand that most previews miss.
- 1Panama have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five matches, conceding 1.4 goals per game.
- 2New Zealand have not scored more than once in any of their last five matches, averaging just 0.8 goals per game.
- 3The model gives a 57.9% probability to 'BTTS: No', reflecting both teams' recent attacking struggles.
How the Model Reached This
The model begins with an Elo baseline, which gives Panama a substantial edge: their 1737 rating (36th globally) far outpaces New Zealand's 1585 (68th), translating to a home expected score of 0.706 versus 0.294 for the visitors. This baseline is then refined with each team's attacking and defensive profiles. Panama's attack factor of 0.83, boosted by strong finishing (1.2) and the creative output of I. Díaz, is set against New Zealand's slightly lower attack factor of 0.76 and similar finishing quality. Defensively, both sides show a suppression factor of 1.25, but recent form is telling: New Zealand's momentum adjustment (attack: 0.865, leak: 1.18) reflects a side struggling at both ends, while Panama's attack and leak multipliers (0.919, 1.027) are less severe. These adjustments yield blended expected goals of 1.42 for Panama and 0.81 for New Zealand. Feeding these into a Poisson model, the most probable scorelines emerge, with 1-0 (15.3%) and 1-1 (12.4%) topping the list.
More Friendlies Predictions
Panama vs New Zealand Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Panamalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
New Zealandlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Recent form for both sides has been poor. Panama have just one win and one draw in their last five, with three straight losses and an average of 1.4 goals conceded per game. New Zealand's struggles are even more pronounced, losing four of their last five and conceding 3 goals per match. Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in this period.
Panama vs New Zealand — Last 8 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
🚩 Panama vs New Zealand Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Panama and 4.2 for New Zealand, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (56%). Over 8.5: 57% · Over 10.5: 32%.
Things to Watch: Panama vs New Zealand
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are currently available, so value betting opportunities cannot be assessed.
- ⚠️International friendlies can be unpredictable due to squad rotation and experimental lineups.
- ⚠️Recent form data is limited and may not fully capture the current strength of either side.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Panama 1–0 New ZealandThe model's final call is a narrow 1-0 win for Panama, underpinned by their 51.3% win probability and a clear expected goals advantage. The most likely way this prediction falters is if Panama's recent defensive lapses persist, allowing New Zealand to capitalise on limited chances and force a draw or share of goals.
Panama vs New Zealand: Common Questions
Who will win Panama vs New Zealand?
The model gives Panama a 51.3% probability of victory, with New Zealand at 21.5% and a draw at 27.2%. Panama are favoured, but the probabilities reflect some uncertainty.
Will both teams score in Panama vs New Zealand?
The model assigns a 42.1% probability to both teams scoring and a 57.9% chance that at least one side keeps a clean sheet, suggesting 'BTTS: No' is more likely.
What are the most likely scorelines for Panama vs New Zealand?
The top three predicted scorelines are 1-0 to Panama (15.3%), 1-1 (12.4%), and 2-0 to Panama (10.8%), based on the model's Poisson calculations.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Panama vs New Zealand: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 16 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.