Parma vs AS Roma Predictions
Serie A · Italy
Parma
AI Predicted Score
0 - 3
AS Roma
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 1.75(+23% edge)
Recommended Bets: Parma vs AS Roma
Parma vs AS Roma: Match Preview
Roma arrive at the Stadio Ennio Tardini as one of Serie A’s form sides, unbeaten through eleven matches and sitting third with 27 points. Parma, in stark contrast, are 16th with only two wins and a -8 goal difference, having lost three of their last five and scored just once in their last three home games. With Roma’s away form (3W, 2D, 0L, 14:5 goal difference) and Parma’s home struggles (1W, 2D, 3L, 4:8 goal difference), the bookmakers have Roma at a very short price, reflecting the gulf in quality and form.
Statistically, the matchup is lopsided: Roma’s attack is firing on all cylinders, averaging 3.4 goals and 6.8 shots on target per game over the last five, while Parma manage just 1.0 goal and 3.8 shots on target in the same span. Roma’s defence, meanwhile, keeps clean sheets in over half their matches and concedes under a goal per game. Set-piece data also favours Roma, who average nearly double the corners of Parma in recent matches, while discipline is similar on both sides (1.6 yellows per game each).
The model expects Roma to control the match from the outset, with a 74% chance of scoring first and a 70% probability of leading at half-time. Parma’s lack of attacking threat, especially at home, makes a Roma clean sheet the likeliest outcome, and the most probable scenario is a comfortable multi-goal away win. The only plausible route to an upset would be Roma underperforming due to rotation or complacency, but the data overwhelmingly supports the visitors.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Parma vs AS Roma
The model’s biggest edge is on 'BTTS no', where the probability (70%) is well above the market’s implied 57%, reflecting Parma’s chronic scoring issues and Roma’s defensive solidity. There is also a modest edge on over 2.5 goals, with Roma’s attack likely to do most of the heavy lifting. The market’s extremely short price on Roma to win is justified by the data, leaving little value on the 1x2, but the goal and BTTS markets offer sharper opportunities.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Parma vs AS Roma(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 1.83
Parma have failed to score in three of their last five at home and average just 0.67 goals per home game, while Roma keep clean sheets in 55% of league matches and have conceded only five goals in five away games; the model projects only a 30% chance both teams score, making 'no' a clear value at these odds.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.62
Roma average 2.82 goals per game and their last five Serie A matches have all gone over 2.5 goals, while Parma have conceded at least two goals in four of their last five; the model gives a 68% probability for over 2.5, slightly ahead of the market.
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Parma vs AS Roma Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Parma vs AS Roma that most previews miss.
- 1Roma have scored at least three goals in four of their last five Serie A matches, with all five going over 2.5 goals.
- 2Parma have failed to score in three of their last five home games and average just 0.67 goals per home fixture.
- 3Eight of the last ten head-to-head meetings have ended in Roma victories, with no draws in that span.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 0.80
Expected goals · model says 2.70
Over 2.5 Goals
68%
BTTS: Yes
51%
Likely Scores
0-2 · 0-3 · 1-2
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Parma vs AS Roma Prediction
Roma travel to Parma as overwhelming favourites, with the market pricing them at 1.25 for the win—one of the shortest away prices in Serie A this season. Parma, languishing in 16th with just two wins from eleven, have lost three of their last five and continue to struggle for goals, averaging only 0.82 per game. Roma, by contrast, are unbeaten, have scored 31 in 11, and arrive off the back of a 3-0 win over Sassuolo and a 5-2 away demolition of Udinese. The key statistical mismatch is Roma’s attack against Parma’s leaky defence. Roma’s last five league games have produced 17 goals for (3.4 per game), with 6.8 shots on target and 18.6 shots per match, while Parma have conceded 1.4 per game in their last five and have managed just two clean sheets all season. Roma’s away record is imperious: 14 scored, 5 conceded, and no defeats. Set-piece threat is also on Roma’s side, averaging 7 corners per game in their last five, compared to Parma’s 3.6. The model expects Roma to dominate possession, create a high volume of chances, and score early—74% probability they net first and 69% that the opening goal comes before the 30th minute. Parma’s blunt attack, especially at home, makes a Roma clean sheet likely (70% modelled chance for BTTS 'no'). The greatest uncertainty lies in whether Parma can muster a goal from limited opportunities, but the gulf in quality and form points to a convincing away win.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Roma average 2.82 goals per game and have not lost in 11 league matches.
Match Context
- →Parma have scored just four goals in six home games and failed to score in three of their last five at home.
- →Roma have won eight of the last ten head-to-heads, including the last five meetings.
🚩 Parma vs AS Roma Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Parma and 5.2 for AS Roma, for an expected total of 9.3. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 59% · Over 10.5: 33%.
How Parma and AS Roma Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Parma vs AS Roma Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Parmalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
AS Romalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Parma have lost three of their last five, including two home defeats, and have scored just once in their last three at the Tardini. Roma, meanwhile, are unbeaten in Serie A, have won four of their last five, and have netted 17 goals in that stretch. The momentum is firmly with the visitors, who show no signs of slowing down.
Parma vs AS Roma — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 3.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +54.55% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: Parma vs AS Roma
Roma have won eight of the last ten meetings with Parma, including all of the last five. The fixture rarely ends in a draw, and Roma have scored at least twice in each of their last four visits to Parma. This historical dominance underlines the market’s short price on the away side.
Parma vs AS Roma Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Parma wins
0
Draws
8
AS Roma wins
Things to Watch: Parma vs AS Roma
- ⚠️Roma’s heavy schedule (Champions League midweek) could introduce rotation or fatigue, but no injury data is reported.
- ⚠️Parma’s defensive numbers are poor, but they did manage a 3-0 win at Atalanta recently, suggesting some volatility.
- ⚠️Market is extremely short on Roma, so any complacency or early red card could swing the match unexpectedly.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Parma 0–3 AS RomaThe model projects a 3-0 win for Roma, driven by the visitors’ league-best attack (31 goals in 11 matches) and Parma’s ongoing struggles in front of goal. The strongest data point is Parma’s anaemic home scoring rate (0.67 per game) versus Roma’s 55% clean sheet rate. The main risk to this forecast is Roma’s potential for rotation after European action or a rare defensive lapse, but the numbers overwhelmingly favour a comfortable away win.
Parma vs AS Roma: Common Questions
Who will win Parma vs AS Roma?
The model gives Roma a 77% chance of victory, with Parma at just 6% and a draw at 17%. Roma’s unbeaten record, 2.82 goals per game, and dominance in recent head-to-heads all point to a strong away win.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Roma?
There is a 70% probability that both teams will not score, as Parma have failed to find the net in three of their last five at home and Roma keep clean sheets in over half their matches.
Is there value in betting on over 2.5 goals or BTTS 'no'?
The model finds value in 'BTTS no' (model probability 70% vs implied 57%, +23% edge) and a smaller edge on 'over 2.5 goals' (68% modelled vs 62% implied, +10% edge), both supported by Roma’s high scoring and Parma’s lack of attacking threat.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Parma vs AS Roma: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.