Parma vs Bologna Predictions
Serie A · Italy
Parma
AI Predicted Score
0 - 2
Bologna
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Bologna Win
Recommended Bets: Parma vs Bologna
Parma vs Bologna: Match Preview
Parma enter this fixture in dire form, sitting 19th with just five points from nine matches and a single win all season. Their last five have yielded only one goal from open play and three defeats, including a 0-3 home loss to Torino. Bologna, by contrast, have climbed to mid-table on the back of two consecutive away wins, most recently a 4-2 victory at AC Milan and a 2-0 win at Cagliari, giving them the league's sixth-best away record.
The statistical contrast is stark: Parma's home games average just 0.6 goals for and 1.2 against, while Bologna's away attack is producing 1.6 goals per game. Parma's shot volume is healthy (11.4 shots per game last five), but their conversion rate is poor, with three blanks in the last five. Bologna's defence is not watertight (one clean sheet in five away), but their attack compensates, with 2.0 goals per game over the last five matches and no failed-to-score outings in that span. Both sides average around three corners per game, and card rates are moderate, with neither team showing a disciplinary spike.
Given the underlying rates, the model expects Bologna to control the shot quality and take advantage of Parma's attacking inefficiency. A low-scoring away win is the likeliest scenario, with Parma's lack of cutting edge and Bologna's recent finishing form the decisive factors. The most probable scorelines cluster around 0-2 and 0-1.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 0.90
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS: Yes
47%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 1-1 · 0-2
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Parma vs Bologna Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Parma vs Bologna that most previews miss.
- 1Parma have scored just three goals in five home matches, the lowest home tally in Serie A.
- 2Bologna's last five away matches have seen them score eight goals and win three times.
- 3Only one of Parma's last five matches has seen both teams score.
Who do you think wins: Parma vs Bologna?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Parma vs Bologna(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Bologna Win
Bologna have won three of five away matches this season and average 1.6 goals per away game, while Parma have scored just three times in five home fixtures and have the league's lowest home scoring rate.
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BTTS: No
Parma have failed to score in three of their last five and average only 0.56 goals per game this season, while Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 20% of away matches and Parma's attack looks blunt.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams have a season over 2.5 rate below 56%, and Parma's matches average just 2.22 goals per game; Bologna's away matches see only 2.6 goals on average.
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More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Parma vs Bologna Prediction
Statistically, this is a clash between the league's most anaemic home attack and a Bologna side that travels well. Parma's home scoring rate is just 0.6 per game, and their defensive record offers little compensation. Bologna's recent away form is strong, with three wins in their last five on the road and eight goals scored in those matches. The model expects Bologna's superior attacking rates to decide a low-scoring contest.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Parma have failed to score in three of their last five matches.
Attack
- →Parma average only 0.56 goals per game this season, lowest in Serie A.
- →Bologna have won three of five away matches, scoring 1.6 per away game.
🚩 Parma vs Bologna Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.3 corners for Parma and 4.5 for Bologna, for an expected total of 8.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 52% · Over 10.5: 27%.
How Parma and Bologna Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Parma vs Bologna Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Parmalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Bolognalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Parma's recent form is among the worst in Serie A, with just one point from their last four and only one goal scored in that stretch. Bologna, meanwhile, are trending upward, winning three of their last five and scoring at least twice in each of their last two away matches.
Parma vs Bologna — Last 9 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
What History Says: Parma vs Bologna
Bologna have the historical edge, winning five of the last ten meetings and three of the last four at Parma. Recent encounters have often featured away wins and multiple goals, though last year's fixture ended 3-1 to Bologna on this ground.
Parma vs Bologna Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Parma wins
3
Draws
5
Bologna wins
Things to Watch: Parma vs Bologna
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value analysis is limited.
- ⚠️Both teams show low clean sheet percentages (11.11%), so a defensive error could open up the match.
- ⚠️Head-to-head history is volatile, with several high-scoring games in past seasons.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Parma 0–2 BolognaThe model projects a 2-0 win for Bologna, driven by Parma's league-worst scoring rate and Bologna's strong away form. The largest risk is a defensive lapse from Bologna or a rare clinical moment from Parma, but the underlying rates point to a low-scoring away victory.
Parma vs Bologna: Common Questions
Who will win Parma vs Bologna?
Bologna are favoured, with a 51% probability of victory compared to Parma's 17%, based on their superior away form and Parma's struggles in attack.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Bologna?
The model gives a 36% chance for both teams to score, with Parma failing to score in three of their last five and Bologna keeping one away clean sheet in that span.
Is Parma vs Bologna likely to go over or under 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals is slightly more likely at 52%, reflecting Parma's low scoring output and Bologna's moderate defensive record; only 44-56% of these teams' matches have cleared the 2.5 line this season.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Parma vs Bologna: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 31 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.