Parma vs Monza Predictions
Serie A · Italy
Parma
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Monza
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.2(+6% edge)
Parma vs Monza: Match Preview
Parma and Monza both sit in the bottom four after two rounds, each searching for their first point of the season. Parma's league campaign has begun with back-to-back defeats to Cagliari and Juventus, failing to score in either, while Monza have also lost twice—shipping seven goals in the process, including a 4-1 defeat at Inter. Both sides will view this fixture as a critical opportunity to stabilise after a rocky start, with early-season pressure already mounting.
Statistically, the matchup is shaped by Monza's leaky defence against Parma's blunt attack. Parma average just 0.6 goals scored and 2.6 shots on target per game over their last five, but Monza's defensive record is even more concerning: 3.5 goals conceded per league match, and 2.6 per game across all recent fixtures. Both teams are below the league average for shots, possession, and corners, suggesting a cautious, low-tempo contest. Notably, Monza's matches have seen both teams score in four of their last five, while Parma have failed to score in three of five.
Given the underlying rates, the model projects a low-scoring draw as the most likely outcome. The historical head-to-head record—three draws in the last four—reinforces this, as does the lack of attacking fluency on either side. Unless Monza's defensive issues are dramatically exposed or Parma find a spark up front, a 1-1 or 1-0 either way appears the most probable result.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS: Yes
46%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Parma vs Monza Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Parma vs Monza that most previews miss.
- 1Parma have not scored in their last three competitive matches, including both Serie A fixtures this season.
- 2Monza's away record this season stands at one loss from one, conceding four goals and scoring just once.
- 3Three of the last four head-to-heads between these teams have finished level, with two ending 1-1.
Who do you think wins: Parma vs Monza?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Parma vs Monza(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.25
The model assigns a 33% probability to the draw, slightly above the bookmaker's implied 31.25%, with both teams winless and three of the last four head-to-heads ending level.
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More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Parma vs Monza Prediction
Both Parma and Monza enter this fixture searching for their first points of the new Serie A campaign, each having lost their opening two matches. Parma have yet to score in the league, while Monza's defensive frailty has seen them concede seven in just two outings. The data points to a low-scoring, evenly matched contest between sides struggling to assert themselves early in the season.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Parma have failed to score in both league games this season, averaging just 0.6 goals per game over their last five matches.
Defence
- →Monza have conceded 3.5 goals per game in Serie A so far, with no clean sheets and a last 5 average of 2.6 goals conceded per match.
Match Context
- →Three of the last four meetings between these sides have ended in draws, including a 1-1 result in their most recent encounter.
🚩 Parma vs Monza Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Parma and 4.3 for Monza, for an expected total of 8.5. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (65%). Over 8.5: 48% · Over 10.5: 24%.
How Parma and Monza Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Parma vs Monza Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Parmalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Monzalast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Parma have started the Serie A season with two defeats and no goals scored, extending a run of three matches without finding the net. Monza have also lost both league games, conceding heavily—seven goals in total—though they have at least found the net three times. Both sides enter this clash on two-game losing streaks and searching for a foothold.
Parma vs Monza — Last 2 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
What History Says: Parma vs Monza
The recent head-to-head record is tight, with three of the last four meetings ending in draws and Monza yet to win in this fixture. The most common scoreline has been 1-1, including their most recent clash in March. Neither side has established dominance historically.
Parma vs Monza Head-to-Head History
Last 4 meetings between these sides
1
Parma wins
3
Draws
0
Monza wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Parma vs Monza
The model sees the draw as slightly undervalued at odds of 3.2, with a 5.6% edge over the bookmaker's implied probability. Over 2.5 goals is priced close to fair value, with no significant edge. The best statistical value lies in backing the draw, given the even matchup and recurring H2H stalemates.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Parma vs Monza
- ⚠️Both teams have only played two league matches, so season averages are based on a small sample.
- ⚠️Recent Coppa Italia and friendly results may not fully reflect current league-level performance.
- ⚠️No injury data reported, but lineup changes could affect tactical balance.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Parma 1–1 MonzaThe model's baseline rates point towards a 1-1 draw, with neither side showing enough attacking quality or defensive solidity to take control. The strongest data point is Monza's 3.5 goals conceded per game in Serie A, but Parma's lack of goals tempers any confidence in a home win. If either side's attack clicks unexpectedly, the most plausible deviation is a narrow 1-0 result.
Parma vs Monza: Common Questions
Who will win Parma vs Monza?
The model gives Parma a 39% chance to win, Monza a 28% chance, and the draw a 33% probability. Both teams are winless and have struggled at both ends, so a draw is the most likely outcome.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Monza?
There is a 48% probability of both teams scoring, with Parma failing to score in three of their last five but Monza conceding in all recent matches. The numbers suggest a slight lean to 'no', but it's close to a coin flip.
Is over 2.5 goals a good bet for Parma vs Monza?
The model estimates a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals, below the implied probability from bookmaker odds. With Parma's attack stalling and Monza's defence vulnerable, the goal total is uncertain but under 2.5 is more likely.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Parma vs Monza: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.