Parma vs Udinese Predictions
Serie A · Italy
Parma
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Udinese
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 2.2(+28% edge)
Recommended Bets: Parma vs Udinese
Parma vs Udinese: Match Preview
Both Parma and Udinese arrive at this fixture rooted in the relegation zone, each with just a single win from their opening seven matches. Parma's recent form is especially troubling, with back-to-back 0-3 defeats and just one goal scored in their last three outings. Udinese, for their part, have also lost four of their last five, but their away record—highlighted by a 3-2 win at Monza and seven goals scored in three away trips—offers a glimmer of hope compared to Parma's blunt home attack.
Statistically, this is a clash of two of Serie A's most vulnerable defences. Parma are conceding 2.0 goals per game over their last five, while Udinese's season average is even worse at 2.29, with no clean sheets for either side. Udinese's attack, however, is notably more potent: their 1.29 goals per game and 12.2 shots per match dwarf Parma's 0.57 and 11.6, and Udinese have scored in every away match so far. Set-piece metrics are middling, but Parma's high foul count (10.6 per game) could hand Udinese opportunities in dangerous areas.
The model expects Udinese's more dynamic attack to be the difference, especially given Parma's inability to keep teams out at home. With both teams' matches trending over 2.5 goals (Parma 57%, Udinese 71%), the market's price on goals looks generous. The likeliest scenario is Udinese exploiting Parma's defensive lapses, with the home side struggling to keep pace on the scoreboard.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Parma vs Udinese
The market appears to be underrating Udinese's chances, with the model finding a +12.8% edge on the away win and an even larger +27.6% edge on over 2.5 goals. Both teams' defensive records and Udinese's away scoring make these prices look generous. If Parma's attack continues to misfire, the away win holds the clearest value, but the goals market is also attractive given the trends.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Parma vs Udinese(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Udinese Win@ 2.43
Udinese's away attack (2.33 goals per away game) faces a Parma side with the lowest home scoring rate in Serie A (0.75 per home game) and zero clean sheets all season, while the market undervalues Udinese's win probability (47% model vs 41.7% implied).
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 2.19
Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in over 57% of matches this season, with Udinese's matches hitting that mark 71% of the time and both conceding at least 2 goals per game on average.
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Parma vs Udinese Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Parma vs Udinese that most previews miss.
- 1Udinese have scored at least twice in all three away league matches this season (7 goals total).
- 2Parma have failed to score in three of their last five matches, including both of their most recent games.
- 3Four of the last six H2H meetings have produced over 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in three of those.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.70
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Parma vs Udinese Prediction
Bookmakers are pricing Udinese as slight favourites at the Tardini, but the data suggests their edge is more pronounced than the odds imply. Parma's anaemic attack and porous defence have left them winless in four of their last five, while Udinese's away scoring rate and high shot volume point to a side with more upside than their league position suggests. Expect a match where defensive frailties on both sides create value in the goals markets, but Udinese's superior attacking metrics and Parma's lack of clean sheets tilt the balance decisively towards the visitors.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Udinese average 2.33 goals scored per away match, compared to Parma's 0.75 at home.
Defence
- →Parma have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their 7 league matches this season.
Match Context
- →Both sides have seen over 2.5 goals in the majority of their games (Parma 57%, Udinese 71%).
🚩 Parma vs Udinese Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Parma and 3.8 for Udinese, for an expected total of 8.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (64%). Over 8.5: 50% · Over 10.5: 25%.
How Parma and Udinese Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Parma vs Udinese Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Parmalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Udineselast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Parma are on a two-match losing streak, having conceded six goals without reply in their last two fixtures and scoring just once in their last three. Udinese are also struggling, winless in five and coming off a 0-3 home defeat to Lecce, but their away form is less bleak, with a 3-2 win at Monza and seven goals in three away matches offering some encouragement.
Parma vs Udinese — Last 7 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 71.43% of games this season
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Parma vs Udinese
The last ten meetings are perfectly balanced, with four wins apiece and two draws, but Udinese have taken three of the last four, including a 2-0 victory in Parma last season. Recent encounters have leaned towards high-scoring affairs, with four of the last six producing at least three goals and both teams scoring in three of those.
Parma vs Udinese Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Parma wins
2
Draws
4
Udinese wins
Things to Watch: Parma vs Udinese
- ⚠️Both teams are in poor form and sit in the relegation zone, increasing unpredictability.
- ⚠️Neither side has shown defensive reliability, so variance in goal output is possible.
- ⚠️No major injuries are reported, but starting lineups are not confirmed at this stage.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Parma 1–2 UdineseUdinese's edge in attack and Parma's chronic defensive issues make the 2-1 away win the likeliest outcome, with the strongest data point being Udinese's 2.33 goals per away match against a Parma side yet to keep a clean sheet. The single biggest risk is that both teams' poor form and low confidence could produce a scrappier, lower-scoring contest than the numbers suggest.
Parma vs Udinese: Common Questions
Who will win Parma vs Udinese?
The model gives Udinese a 47% chance of victory, compared to just 24% for Parma and 29% for the draw. Udinese's superior away attack and Parma's defensive frailty are the key factors.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Parma vs Udinese?
There's a 58% probability for over 2.5 goals, with both teams averaging over 2 goals conceded per game and Udinese's matches going over this line 71% of the time this season.
Is there value in backing Udinese at the current odds?
Yes, the model's 47% win probability for Udinese implies value against the bookmaker's 2.40 price (41.7% implied), producing a +12.8% edge based on the underlying data.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Parma vs Udinese: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 21 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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