PEC Zwolle vs Groningen Predictions
Eredivisie · Netherlands
PEC Zwolle
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Groningen
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
@ 3.6(+26% edge)
Match Result
7.5/10Late Drama as Zwolle and Groningen Share the Spoils in IJsseldelta Thriller
PEC Zwolle and Groningen played out a pulsating 1-1 draw at the IJsseldelta Stadion, with both goals arriving in a frenetic final ten minutes. After a tightly contested affair in which neither side could establish dominance, Zwolle finally broke the deadlock in the 82nd minute, only for Groningen to respond almost instantly with an equalizer just two minutes later. The statistics reflect the even nature of the contest: both sides split possession at 50% and each registered six shots on target, with Groningen edging total attempts 16 to Zwolle's 13. Despite Zwolle's seven corners and a late attacking surge, Groningen's resilience—despite picking up three yellow cards—ensured the points were shared. The result leaves both teams with plenty to ponder as the Eredivisie season enters its decisive phase.
🔮 AI Prediction Report
PSYCHIC MODEPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
82' — Goal
PEC Zwolle break the deadlock after sustained pressure, sending the home fans into raptures.
84' — Goal
Groningen respond almost immediately with a swift equalizer, silencing the IJsseldelta Stadion.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Groningen pick up three bookings as tempers flare in a tense second half.
PEC Zwolle
Zwolle showed patience and discipline in their 4-2-3-1 setup, keeping the ball well and creating several promising openings, particularly in the second half. Their persistence paid off with an 82nd-minute goal, but a lapse in concentration allowed Groningen to equalize almost immediately. The home side's attacking midfielders, especially Younes Namli and Thijs Oosting, were lively throughout, but Zwolle lacked the clinical edge to put the game beyond doubt when on top. Defensively, Zwolle were organized and disciplined, committing no yellow-card offenses and conceding only six shots on target. However, their inability to hold on to the lead in the closing stages will be a source of frustration.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Groningen
Groningen's 4-4-2 formation provided a solid platform, allowing them to match Zwolle in possession and edge the shot count. Their midfield, led by Tygo Land and Travis Hernes, worked tirelessly to disrupt Zwolle's rhythm and launch quick transitions. Groningen's resilience was evident as they responded to falling behind with a swift equalizer, demonstrating mental fortitude and tactical flexibility. While Groningen picked up three yellow cards, their defensive line—anchored by Marco Rente and Thijmen Blokzijl—stood firm under pressure. The visitors' ability to carve out 16 shots and respond immediately after conceding highlighted their attacking intent and fighting spirit.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Zwolle set out in a 4-2-3-1, focusing on controlled possession and probing down the flanks, with Namli and Oosting providing creativity behind Kostons. Their use of width and overlapping full-backs earned them seven corners, but a lack of clinical finishing limited their goal tally. Groningen's 4-4-2 offered defensive solidity and quick transitions, with Land and Hernes anchoring the midfield and van Bergen and Taha stretching Zwolle's backline. The tactical battle was finely poised throughout, with both sides pressing high in spells but also showing caution in possession. Set pieces were a key weapon for Zwolle, while Groningen's rapid response after conceding showcased their ability to shift gears and exploit transitional moments. Substitutions from both managers injected fresh legs but did not alter the formations significantly.
Turning Point
Groningen's equalizer in the 84th minute, coming just two minutes after Zwolle's opener, decisively shifted the momentum and ensured a share of the spoils.
Man of the Match
Thom van Bergen
Scored the vital equalizer and consistently threatened Zwolle's defense with his movement and composure.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS: Yes
48%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
PEC Zwolle vs Groningen Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: PEC Zwolle vs Groningen?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: PEC Zwolle vs Groningen(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: Yes@ 3.6
Both teams have scored in 9 of their last 10 combined matches, and both average 1.6 goals scored per game in their last 5. The odds offered imply just 28% but model probability is 54%.
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Match Result: Draw@ 3.65
Five of the last 10 H2H ended in draws, and both teams are defensively vulnerable but not clinical. Model sees 35% draw probability vs 27% implied.
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More Eredivisie Predictions
The Case For This PEC Zwolle vs Groningen Prediction
PEC Zwolle and Groningen meet in a mid-table clash with both sides showing inconsistent form. Zwolle are solid at home but have struggled for goals recently, while Groningen snapped a losing streak with a big win over Ajax but have been leaky at the back. Both teams are prone to conceding and scoring, with high BTTS rates and a history of draws in this fixture. Expect a tight, cagey game with both sides likely to find the net but neither dominating.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Recent H2H: 5 draws in last 10, including a 2-2 earlier this season.
Attack
- →Both teams average 1.6 goals scored per game in their last 5 matches.
Defence
- →Neither side keeps many clean sheets (Zwolle 20%, Groningen 27%).
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either team.
Match Context
- →PEC Zwolle have 6W/2D/4L at home, Groningen 5W/1D/7L away.
- →BTTS has landed in 4/5 for Zwolle and 5/5 for Groningen.
🚩 PEC Zwolle vs Groningen Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for PEC Zwolle and 6 for Groningen, for an expected total of 10.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (64%). Over 8.5: 75% · Over 10.5: 52%.
How PEC Zwolle and Groningen Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
PEC Zwolle vs Groningen Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
PEC Zwollelast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Groningenlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
PEC Zwolle vs Groningen — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 3.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +High-volume attack — 18 shots/game
What History Says: PEC Zwolle vs Groningen
PEC Zwolle vs Groningen Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
PEC Zwolle wins
6
Draws
1
Groningen wins
Things to Watch: PEC Zwolle vs Groningen
- ⚠️Some missing data for shots/corners/fouls in recent matches reduces confidence in set piece projections.
- ⚠️Both teams' form is volatile; Groningen's recent win may not indicate a true turnaround.
- ⚠️Market odds suggest defensive game, but recent stats point to BTTS value.
- ⚠️No confirmed lineups; late changes could impact final probabilities.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for PEC Zwolle vs Groningen: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 8 March 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.