Groningen vs PEC Zwolle Predictions
Eredivisie · Netherlands
Groningen
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
PEC Zwolle
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 4.2(+18% edge)
Match Result
7.8/10Clinical Groningen Sweep Aside PEC Zwolle with Commanding 3-0 Win
Groningen delivered a statement performance at the Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion, dispatching PEC Zwolle 3-0 in a one-sided Eredivisie encounter. The hosts asserted their authority early, opening the scoring in the 20th minute and never looked back, doubling their lead before half-time and sealing the result midway through the second half. Zwolle, despite flashes of possession and six corners, rarely threatened, managing just a single shot on target all evening. The home side's attacking intent was clear, registering 17 shots with 7 on target and controlling 52% of possession. Groningen’s midfield dictated the tempo, while their backline remained largely untroubled. PEC Zwolle struggled to match Groningen's intensity, picking up two yellow cards and failing to create clear-cut chances, ultimately succumbing to a comprehensive defeat.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
3 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
20' — Goal
Groningen open the scoring, capitalizing on early pressure.
43' — Goal
Groningen double their lead just before half-time, dealing a psychological blow to Zwolle.
68' — Goal
The hosts seal the result with a third goal, extinguishing any hopes of a Zwolle comeback.
52' — Yellow Card
PEC Zwolle pick up their first booking as frustrations mount.
75' — Yellow Card
A second yellow for Zwolle, reflecting their struggles to cope with Groningen’s attack.
Groningen
Groningen put in a dominant display, combining attacking flair with defensive solidity. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to control the midfield and create a steady stream of chances, as evidenced by their 17 shots and 7 on target. The home side struck at key moments—once in the opening 20 minutes, again just before half-time, and finally in the 68th minute—to keep Zwolle on the back foot throughout. Groningen’s discipline was notable, committing only 7 fouls and avoiding any bookings.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle endured a frustrating evening, unable to convert their 48% possession into meaningful opportunities. Their 4-1-4-1 setup struggled to contain Groningen’s attacking midfielders and offered little support to lone striker K. Kostons. Zwolle managed just 9 shots, with only one troubling the Groningen goalkeeper. Defensive lapses at crucial moments, coupled with 11 fouls and two yellow cards, summed up a disappointing outing.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Groningen’s 4-2-3-1 formation gave them a numerical advantage in midfield, allowing their creative players to find pockets of space between Zwolle’s lines. The double pivot shielded the defense, enabling full-backs to push forward and support attacks. Groningen pressed effectively, forcing turnovers and quickly transitioning into attack. Their use of width and overlapping runs stretched Zwolle’s back four, while the lone striker, B. Willumsson, occupied the center-backs and created space for midfield runners. PEC Zwolle’s 4-1-4-1 setup was intended to provide midfield solidity, but the single holding midfielder was often overrun by Groningen’s attacking trio. Zwolle’s inability to progress the ball through midfield left Kostons isolated up front, and their attacking forays were limited to set pieces and hopeful crosses, which Groningen’s defense dealt with comfortably.
Turning Point
The second goal in the 43rd minute gave Groningen a commanding lead and deflated Zwolle’s resolve heading into half-time.
Man of the Match
B. Willumsson
Led the line with authority, scored a crucial goal, and was a constant threat throughout.
Groningen vs PEC Zwolle: Match Preview
Groningen return to the Euroborg sitting mid-table, having taken just one point from their last three outings. Their attack remains productive—eleven goals in five matches—but defensive lapses have cost them, as shown by a 3-2 home defeat to Fortuna Sittard and a 2-2 draw with Twente. PEC Zwolle, three points behind in 13th, have managed only one win so far but are unbeaten in two of their three away games, including a 2-2 draw at Sparta Rotterdam last time out.
Statistically, this matchup is primed for goals. Groningen's matches average 4.6 total goals, with both teams scoring in all five. Their home attack averages 2 goals per game, but defensive frailty is clear—no clean sheets and 2.4 conceded per match. Zwolle's away record is patchy but they have found the net in each of their last three on the road, and their 1.2 goals scored per game comes despite averaging just 38.8% possession. Set pieces could be a factor, with Groningen earning 5.2 corners per game and Zwolle 3.6, while both sides average over a card per match.
The model projects an open contest, with Groningen's attacking intent likely to create chances but their defensive issues leaving the door open for Zwolle. While the market strongly favours the hosts, the persistent draw trend in recent head-to-heads and both sides' leaky defences suggest the draw is undervalued. Expect a competitive game, with the most likely outcomes being a narrow home win or another high-scoring stalemate.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Groningen vs PEC Zwolle
The model identifies the draw as the clear value angle, with a 28% probability against the market's 23.8% implied chance at 4.2 odds (+17.6% edge). Both teams to score is also marginally value, but the market is already short at 1.5. Conversely, under 2.5 goals is overpriced given the attacking and defensive numbers on both sides, so no value is found there.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Groningen vs PEC Zwolle(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 4.19
The model assigns a 28% probability to the draw, compared to the market's 23.8% implied probability at 4.2 odds, creating a notable value edge. Six of the last ten head-to-head meetings have ended level, and both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities and a tendency for close matches.
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Groningen vs PEC Zwolle Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Groningen vs PEC Zwolle that most previews miss.
- 1All five of Groningen's matches this season have seen both teams score and over 2.5 goals.
- 2Six of the last ten Groningen vs PEC Zwolle meetings have ended in draws, including both fixtures last season.
- 3Groningen average 16.6 shots per game over their last five, compared to Zwolle's 11.8, but concede 2.4 goals per match.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 2.05
Expected goals · model says 1.50
Over 2.5 Goals
69%
BTTS: Yes
68%
Likely Scores
2-1 · 1-1 · 2-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Groningen vs PEC Zwolle Prediction
Bookmakers have Groningen as clear favourites at home, but the underlying numbers point to a contest that could be tighter than the odds suggest. Groningen's attack is lively, averaging 2.2 goals and 16.6 shots per game over the last five, but their defence remains porous, conceding 2.4 goals per match and failing to keep a clean sheet all season. PEC Zwolle's away form is inconsistent, but they've shown they can score on the road, with five goals in three away games and a 2-0 win at Heerenveen. The tactical battle tilts towards goals: Groningen have seen all five of their matches go over 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored in every one. Zwolle's last five average 1.2 goals scored and 2 conceded, and they rarely control possession (38.8% average), but their counter-attack and set-piece threat (3.6 corners per game) keep them in games. Discipline could also play a part, with both sides combining for 2.6 yellow cards per game recently. Expect an open encounter, with Groningen's high shot volume and Zwolle's ability to exploit spaces likely producing chances at both ends. The model leans towards a 2-1 home win but sees significant draw probability given the head-to-head history and both teams' defensive frailties. The market undervalues the stalemate, making the draw the standout value angle.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Groningen have conceded at least two goals in four of their five matches this season.
Match Context
- →PEC Zwolle have scored in four of their last five, including five goals in three away games.
- →Six of the last ten head-to-head meetings have ended in draws.
🚩 Groningen vs PEC Zwolle Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.8 corners for Groningen and 4.2 for PEC Zwolle, for an expected total of 10. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 67% · Over 10.5: 42%.
How Groningen and PEC Zwolle Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Groningen vs PEC Zwolle Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Groningenlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
PEC Zwollelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Groningen have stumbled after a strong start, with just one point from their last three matches and defensive issues mounting—twelve goals conceded in five games. PEC Zwolle have also struggled for consistency, winning only once but showing some resilience away from home, most recently drawing 2-2 at Sparta Rotterdam. Both sides are scoring regularly but leaking goals at an even higher rate.
Groningen vs PEC Zwolle — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 17 shots/game
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: Groningen vs PEC Zwolle
Draws are the defining feature of this matchup, with six of the last ten encounters ending level, including both Eredivisie meetings last season. Groningen have only managed one win in this span, while Zwolle have three, but none since 2022. Scorelines are typically close, with neither team dominating the fixture.
Groningen vs PEC Zwolle Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
1
Groningen wins
6
Draws
3
PEC Zwolle wins
Things to Watch: Groningen vs PEC Zwolle
- ⚠️Both teams' defensive records are poor, making the match outcome volatile.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but starting lineups are not confirmed.
- ⚠️Early season sample sizes mean form could shift quickly.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Groningen 2–1 PEC ZwolleThe model projects a 2-1 win for Groningen, but the strongest data point is the frequency of draws in this fixture—six in the last ten head-to-heads and both sides showing defensive frailties. The most plausible way this call goes wrong is if Groningen's attack capitalises on Zwolle's weak away defence and runs up the score, or if both sides' defensive issues lead to a chaotic, high-scoring draw.
Groningen vs PEC Zwolle: Common Questions
Who will win Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
The model gives Groningen a 48% chance of victory, with the draw at 28% and PEC Zwolle at 24%. While Groningen are favoured, the data suggests the draw is more likely than the odds imply, especially given recent head-to-head trends.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Yes is favoured at 68% probability, with both teams scoring in all five of Groningen's matches so far and in three of Zwolle's last five. Defensive issues on both sides make BTTS a strong statistical play.
Is there value in backing the draw in Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Yes, the model sees a 17.6% value edge on the draw at 4.2 odds, with a 28% model probability versus the market's 23.8%. The fixture has ended level in six of the last ten meetings, reinforcing the value case.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Groningen vs PEC Zwolle: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 11 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.