Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal Predictions
Major League Soccer · USA
Philadelphia Union
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
CF Montreal
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 4.5(+22% edge)
Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal: Match Preview
Philadelphia Union and CF Montreal arrive at Subaru Park locked on 21 points from 21 matches, each struggling for traction in the lower reaches of the MLS table. Philadelphia's recent run (DDWLW) includes a wild 3-2 win at NYCFC but also two home draws, while Montreal have steadied after a rough patch, picking up a win at Columbus and three draws in their last five (DWDDL). With both sides desperate to climb out of the bottom third, the stakes are high, but neither has shown the consistency to justify clear favouritism.
Statistically, the matchup is far tighter than the odds suggest. Philadelphia's home record (3W-4D-3L) is only marginally better than Montreal's away (2W-1D-7L), and both are leaking goals—over 2.5 goals has landed in 61.9% of Philadelphia and 66.7% of Montreal matches this season. Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five league games, and their combined last ten matches have produced eight BTTS outcomes. Set-piece and discipline data hint at a combative contest, with Philadelphia averaging 17 fouls and 3 yellow cards per game in their last five.
The model sees value in the draw, with both sides' defensive frailties and high BTTS rates making a high-scoring stalemate plausible. While Philadelphia's attack has shown more punch recently, Montreal's improved away form and the head-to-head trend of close games suggest the market is overestimating the home side. Expect a contest where neither side can fully assert control, and where the draw offers the best value against the prevailing odds.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal
The standout value is on the draw at 4.5, where the model's 27% probability outpaces the market's 22% implied, offering a +21.5% edge. Other major markets like BTTS and over/under 2.5 goals are priced efficiently, with model and market probabilities closely aligned. The market's short price on Philadelphia (1.45) is not fully justified by the data, given both sides' similar records and defensive frailties.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 4.56
The model assigns a 27% probability to the draw, compared to the market's 22% implied probability at 4.5 odds, yielding a +21.5% edge. Both teams have drawn 6 of 21 league matches and 4 of their last 10 H2H meetings have been decided by a single goal or ended level, with both sides averaging over 1.4 goals conceded per game this season.
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Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal that most previews miss.
- 1The draw is priced at 4.5 (22% implied), but the model assigns a 27% chance—over 21% value edge—driven by both teams' high draw rates (6 in 21 matches each).
- 2Eight of the last ten combined matches for these teams have seen both teams score, and neither has kept a clean sheet in that span.
- 3Philadelphia have averaged 17 fouls and 3 yellow cards per game over their last five, suggesting a strong likelihood of over 3.5 cards.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 2.00
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
62%
BTTS: Yes
60%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal Prediction
Despite both sides languishing in the bottom third of the table with identical records (5W-6D-10L, 21 points each), the market has Philadelphia Union as a heavy favourite at 1.45, implying a level of superiority not fully supported by recent form or underlying data. Philadelphia's last five in all competitions show a mixed bag (DDWLW), with defensive frailty (1.6 goals conceded per game) offset by a marginally stronger attack than Montreal. Montreal, meanwhile, have steadied after a poor run, taking points from three of their last five and notching a notable away win at Columbus. The statistical matchup is tighter than the odds suggest. Philadelphia's home record (3W-4D-3L) is only marginally better than Montreal's away (2W-1D-7L), and both sides have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five league games. Both average over 1.4 goals conceded per match, and their last five combined show 8 BTTS outcomes from 10, with over 2.5 goals landing in 61.9% (PHI) and 66.7% (MTL) of league fixtures. Set piece and discipline data point to a scrappy contest: both average over 4 corners and 8 fouls per game, and Philadelphia's 3 yellow cards per game in the last five is notably high. Given the defensive vulnerabilities on both sides and a head-to-head history that includes four one-goal games and a 2-2 draw in their last eight MLS meetings, the model sees the draw as undervalued by the market. A 2-1 home win is the most likely single outcome, but a high-scoring draw is a realistic scenario, especially with both teams' tendency to concede late and the lack of key injuries.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Neither side has kept a clean sheet in their last five league games.
- →Philadelphia average 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded in their last five; Montreal average 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded.
Match Context
- →Both teams have identical league records (5W-6D-10L, 21 points, negative goal difference).
- →Philadelphia's home record (3W-4D-3L) is only marginally better than Montreal's away (2W-1D-7L).
- →Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61.9% of Philadelphia and 66.7% of Montreal matches.
🚩 Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Philadelphia Union and 5 for CF Montreal, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 65% · Over 10.5: 40%.
How Philadelphia Union and CF Montreal Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Philadelphia Unionlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
CF Montreallast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Philadelphia Union come into this fixture unbeaten in four league matches (W2 D2), including a 3-2 victory at NYCFC and back-to-back draws against Inter Miami and Austin. Montreal, meanwhile, have lost just once in their last five (W1 D3 L1), highlighted by an away win at Columbus and three draws, showing improved resilience after a poor run. Both sides have been conceding regularly, but neither has failed to score in more than one of their last five.
Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal
Philadelphia have the upper hand in recent head-to-heads, winning six of the last ten clashes, but Montreal have upset the odds with three wins, including a 4-2 result in Philadelphia earlier this year. Tight margins are common: four of the last ten have ended 2-1, and only one draw has occurred in that span. Both teams have found the net in five of the last ten meetings.
Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
6
Philadelphia Union wins
1
Draws
3
CF Montreal wins
Things to Watch: Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal
- ⚠️Both teams' recent form is inconsistent, with high-scoring draws and narrow defeats common.
- ⚠️Market may be overrating Philadelphia's home advantage given their modest home record.
- ⚠️Absence of injuries means lineups should be stable, but squad rotation or tactical changes are possible.
- ⚠️High variance in defensive performances increases draw and BTTS probabilities.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Philadelphia Union 2–1 CF MontrealThe model predicts a 2-1 win for Philadelphia, but the strongest data point is the 27% draw probability, well above the market's 22% implied odds. Both teams' defensive records and high BTTS rates make a high-scoring draw a live possibility, especially given their identical league records and Montreal's recent away resilience. The main risk is Philadelphia's attack finding enough to justify their short price, but the market's confidence in the home side looks overstated given the data.
Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal: Common Questions
Who will win Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal?
The model gives Philadelphia a 54% chance to win, the draw a 27% chance, and Montreal a 19% chance. The market is more bullish on the home side, but the underlying numbers suggest a much tighter contest.
Is there value in betting the draw in Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal?
Yes, the model sees a significant value edge on the draw, with a 27% probability versus the market's 22% implied at 4.5 odds. Both teams have drawn 6 of 21 league games and are closely matched on form and defensive record.
Will both teams score in this match?
There's a 62% probability of both teams scoring, with both sides averaging over 1.4 goals conceded per game and eight of their last ten combined matches seeing BTTS. The market price (1.57, 64% implied) is roughly in line with the model's estimate.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal Resources
Philadelphia Union Predictions
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CF Montreal Predictions
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Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal Stats
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Model Accuracy
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