Plymouth vs Stevenage Predictions
League One · England
Plymouth
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
Stevenage
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Double Chance: Plymouth or Draw
Match Result
6.8/10Plymouth Edge Tight Contest Against Stevenage with Second-Half Strike
Plymouth claimed a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Stevenage at Home Park, with a single goal just before the hour mark proving decisive in a match defined by narrow margins and committed defending. Despite Stevenage enjoying the lion's share of possession (55%) and forcing seven corners, they struggled to convert their territorial advantage into clear chances, registering only one shot on target all evening. Plymouth, meanwhile, made the most of their opportunities, firing four shots on target from 11 attempts and ultimately finding the breakthrough in the 57th minute. The hosts set up in a 4-4-1-1 formation, focusing on compactness and quick transitions, while Stevenage's 3-4-1-2 system aimed to control the midfield and stretch play out wide. The match was punctuated by robust challenges—Plymouth picked up two yellow cards to Stevenage's one—and both sides battled for supremacy in a contest that remained in the balance until the final whistle. Ultimately, Plymouth's clinical edge and defensive resilience secured all three points.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
57' — Goal
Aribim Pepple scores for Plymouth, breaking the deadlock after a well-worked move.
65' — Yellow Card
Herbie Kane receives a booking for a tactical foul, disrupting a Stevenage counter.
73' — Yellow Card
Louis Thompson is cautioned for Stevenage following a late challenge in midfield.
80' — Corner
Stevenage win their seventh corner, piling on late pressure but failing to find a breakthrough.
Plymouth
Plymouth delivered a disciplined and efficient performance, balancing defensive solidity with sharp attacking moments. Despite conceding more possession, they remained organized at the back, limiting Stevenage to just a single shot on target. Their attacking unit, spearheaded by Aribim Pepple and supported by Jamie Paterson, capitalized on a key opportunity in the second half to break the deadlock. The midfield worked tirelessly to disrupt Stevenage's rhythm, and the backline stood firm under late pressure.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Stevenage
Stevenage controlled possession and dictated much of the tempo, but lacked the cutting edge to break down a resolute Plymouth defense. Their 3-4-1-2 formation allowed for width and numbers in midfield, but their attacking trio struggled to find space in the final third. Despite winning more corners and committing fewer fouls, Stevenage's inability to test Conor Hazard more than once ultimately cost them. Defensive lapses and a lack of incisiveness in the box left them frustrated.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Plymouth's 4-4-1-1 provided a solid defensive base, with two banks of four restricting space between the lines and forcing Stevenage wide. The home side looked to spring forward quickly, exploiting spaces left by Stevenage's advanced wingbacks. Stevenage's 3-4-1-2 aimed to overload the midfield and stretch the play, but their lack of penetration in the final third was evident, as they struggled to turn possession into meaningful chances. Substitutions in the second half appeared to inject fresh legs, but neither side significantly altered their tactical approach, with Plymouth content to protect their lead and Stevenage pushing numbers forward in search of an equalizer.
Turning Point
Aribim Pepple's 57th-minute goal shifted the momentum decisively in Plymouth's favor and forced Stevenage to chase the game.
Man of the Match
Aribim Pepple
Scored the match-winning goal and led the line with energy and purpose throughout.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.55
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Plymouth vs Stevenage Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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Where the Model Sees Value: Plymouth vs Stevenage(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 2–1
Plymouth's recent attacking form at home and Stevenage's tendency to concede away suggest a narrow home win with both teams scoring.
Double Chance: Plymouth or Draw
Plymouth's home record and strong H2H dominance at Home Park make avoiding defeat likely.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have over 2.5 goal rates above 40% and recent matches see frequent BTTS and 2+ goals.
More League One Predictions
The Case For This Plymouth vs Stevenage Prediction
This is a mid-table clash with both Plymouth and Stevenage still in the playoff hunt. Plymouth come in with strong recent form, especially in attack, having scored 10 goals in their last 5 matches. Stevenage are resilient and have found the net in each of their last 5, but their away defensive record is shaky. H2H history heavily favors Plymouth at Home Park. Expect a competitive match with both sides likely to score, but Plymouth's offensive edge and home advantage may prove decisive.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Plymouth have won 6 of last 10 H2H, especially strong at home.
Attack
- →Plymouth W3 of last 5, scoring 2.2 goals/game in that span.
Defence
- →Stevenage have just 1 away clean sheet in last 5 and concede 1.44 goals/game away this season.
Injuries & Team News
- →No major injuries for either side.
Match Context
- →Both teams have high BTTS rates in recent matches.
🚩 Plymouth vs Stevenage Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.6 corners for Plymouth and 3.5 for Stevenage, for an expected total of 10.1. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (55%). Over 8.5: 68% · Over 10.5: 43%.
How Plymouth and Stevenage Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Plymouth vs Stevenage Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Plymouthlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Stevenagelast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Plymouth vs Stevenage — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
What History Says: Plymouth vs Stevenage
Plymouth vs Stevenage Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
7
Plymouth wins
1
Draws
2
Stevenage wins
Things to Watch: Plymouth vs Stevenage
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so value betting edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Some missing match stats (shots, possession) for recent Stevenage games.
- ⚠️Lineups unavailable at time of prediction; late injuries or rotations possible.
- ⚠️Both teams are inconsistent, especially Plymouth at home (7W 3D 8L).
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Plymouth vs Stevenage: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 12 March 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.