Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Raków Częstochowa
Full Time
4 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Cracovia Krakow
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.45(+10% edge)
Match Result
8.2/10Raków Run Riot: Clinical Hosts Punish 10-Man Cracovia in 4-1 Rout
Raków Częstochowa delivered a statement performance at the zondacrypto Arena, dispatching Cracovia Krakow 4-1 in a match that showcased both attacking flair and ruthless efficiency. Despite Cracovia's early resilience and a brief second-half fightback, the hosts' dominance in possession (61%) and sharp finishing proved decisive, particularly after the visitors were reduced to ten men. The match ignited late in the first half with Raków scoring twice in quick succession (39', 45'), only for Cracovia to briefly threaten a comeback with a goal shortly after the restart. However, a red card for the visitors and relentless pressure from Raków saw the home side pull away, adding two more goals—including a stoppage-time clincher—to seal an emphatic victory.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
4 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
39' — Goal
Raków open the scoring, breaking down Cracovia's resistance with a well-worked move.
45' — Goal
Raków double their lead just before halftime, putting the visitors on the back foot.
50' — Goal
Cracovia pull one back through Dijon Kameri, sparking hopes of a comeback.
60' — Goal
Raków restore their two-goal cushion, capitalizing on mounting pressure.
70' — Red Card
Cracovia reduced to ten men, their comeback hopes dashed by a sending off.
90' — Goal
Patryk Makuch seals the win for Raków with a late strike.
Raków Częstochowa
Raków combined control and incisiveness, dictating the tempo with 61% possession and converting seven of their nine shots on target into four goals. Their 3-4-3 formation allowed for fluid transitions and effective use of width, overwhelming Cracovia's defensive block. The midfield duo of Marko Bulat and Oskar Repka provided the foundation, while the front three capitalized on nearly every clear opportunity. Defensively, Raków were largely untroubled except for a brief spell after conceding, regrouping quickly and exploiting their numerical advantage once Cracovia went down to ten men.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Cracovia Krakow
Cracovia started with a defensive 5-4-1 setup, looking to frustrate Raków and hit on the break. While they managed 19 shots (six on target) and forced seven corners, their lack of composure in front of goal and indiscipline cost them dearly. The visitors' high foul count (17) and two yellow cards culminated in a costly red card, leaving them exposed in the final half hour. Despite a spirited response early in the second half and a goal to make it 2-1, Cracovia could not sustain momentum. Their attacking efforts were ultimately undermined by defensive lapses and the numerical disadvantage.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Raków's 3-4-3 formation provided both defensive solidity and attacking width, allowing wing-backs like Fran Tudor and Jean Carlos to join the attack and stretch Cracovia's back five. The hosts' high possession (61%) and patient build-up forced Cracovia into a deep, reactive stance, with Raków probing until gaps appeared. Cracovia's 5-4-1 was designed for containment and counterattacks, but their inability to keep the ball (39% possession) and mounting disciplinary issues left them chasing shadows. Substitutions and the red card forced them into damage limitation mode, and Raków exploited the extra space with incisive passing and movement, particularly in the closing stages.
Turning Point
The red card for Cracovia in the 70th minute ended any realistic hope of a comeback and allowed Raków to dominate the closing stages.
Man of the Match
Jonatan Braut Brunes
Led the line superbly, scored, and was central to Raków's attacking threat throughout.
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Expected goals · model says 0.90
Expected goals · model says 0.65
Over 2.5 Goals
20%
BTTS: Yes
28%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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Where the Model Sees Value: Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.45
Both teams have struggled to win recently (Raków DDDLL, Cracovia DLWLL), and the H2H is draw-heavy with 3 draws in the last 10. Both sides have similar underlying metrics and motivation is moderate. Model probability for draw is significantly above market implied.
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More Ekstraklasa Predictions
The Case For This Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction
Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow meet in a mid-table clash with both teams showing inconsistent form and little momentum. Raków are winless in five and have drawn their last three, while Cracovia have just one win in five and struggle for goals away. Both sides have been involved in low-scoring, tight games recently, and H2H history suggests a balanced matchup. Expect a cautious, tense encounter with few clear chances.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Head-to-head: 3 draws in last 10, most recent league meeting was 2-0 to Cracovia, but Raków won 3-0 in the Cup.
Attack
- →Raków: 3 straight draws, winless in 5, but scoring in every recent match.
Defence
- →Both teams average around 1 goal scored and 1.2-1.6 conceded per game recently.
Tactical Angle
- →Both teams mid-table, limited pressure, motivation moderate.
Match Context
- →Cracovia: Only 1 win in last 5, failed to score in 2 of last 5, low away goal rate.
- →Low expected goal output, high probability of under 2.5 goals.
🚩 Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Raków Częstochowa and 5.6 for Cracovia Krakow, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 64% · Over 10.5: 39%.
How Raków Częstochowa and Cracovia Krakow Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Raków Częstochowalast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Cracovia Krakowlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.6 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow
Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Raków Częstochowa wins
2
Draws
4
Cracovia Krakow wins
Things to Watch: Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow
- ⚠️Some recent matches missing full stats (shots, possession) for Cracovia.
- ⚠️Lineups not available at time of analysis, so late injuries or rotations could impact predictions.
- ⚠️Both teams' form is volatile; a red card or early goal could swing the match.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds for under 2.5 and BTTS no are very short, offering negative value.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Raków Częstochowa vs Cracovia Krakow: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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