Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Cracovia Krakow
Full Time
2 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Raków Częstochowa
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Match Result
7.5/10Cracovia Krakow Stage Second-Half Comeback to Edge Raków Częstochowa 2-1
Cracovia Krakow overturned a first-half deficit to claim a spirited 2-1 victory over Raków Częstochowa at the Marshal Jozef Pilsudski Stadium, delighting the home faithful with a resilient second-half display. Despite trailing after Tomasz Pieńko’s 31st-minute opener for Raków, Cracovia roared back after the break, netting twice through Dijon Kameri and Kahveh Zahiroleslam to secure all three points. Raków enjoyed the lion’s share of possession (58%) and looked in control for much of the first half, but Cracovia’s sharper attacking edge—evident in their 18 shots with 8 on target—proved decisive. The hosts’ tactical tweaks and relentless pressing after halftime shifted the momentum, while Raków struggled to match their early intensity and failed to capitalize on their territorial advantage.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
31' — Goal
Tomasz Pieńko put Raków ahead after a slick attacking move.
56' — Goal
Dijon Kameri equalized for Cracovia with a precise finish.
75' — Goal
Kahveh Zahiroleslam completed the turnaround with Cracovia’s second goal.
82' — Yellow Card
Raków’s only booking as they chased the game late on.
Cracovia Krakow
Cracovia Krakow started cautiously but grew into the contest, especially after the interval. Despite having less of the ball (42% possession), they were purposeful in attack, registering 18 shots and 8 on target. Their pressing and direct play unsettled Raków in the second half, leading to two well-taken goals. The back four held firm under late pressure, and the midfield’s energy was crucial in turning the tide.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Raków Częstochowa
Raków Częstochowa controlled the tempo early on, leveraging their 3-4-3 shape to dominate possession (58%) and break the deadlock through Tomasz Pieńko. However, their attacking threat waned after halftime, and they struggled to convert possession into clear chances—mustering just 3 shots on target from 14 attempts. Defensive lapses and a lack of cutting edge in the final third ultimately cost them.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Cracovia lined up in a 4-2-3-1, initially sitting deep and absorbing Raków’s pressure. Their double pivot shielded the defense, while the attacking trio behind Zahiroleslam pressed aggressively after halftime, forcing turnovers and creating chances. The switch to a more direct approach after the break paid dividends, as they exploited spaces left by Raków’s advanced wingbacks. Raków’s 3-4-3 allowed them to dominate possession and stretch the play in the first half, but their midfield lost control as Cracovia increased their intensity. The visitors’ inability to adapt tactically after conceding saw them exposed on the counter, and their late substitutions failed to alter the game’s trajectory.
Turning Point
Dijon Kameri’s equalizer in the 56th minute shifted momentum decisively in Cracovia’s favor.
Man of the Match
Dijon Kameri
His goal galvanized Cracovia’s comeback and he was a constant creative spark throughout the second half.
Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa: Match Preview
Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa both enter this fixture without a league win, sitting 15th and 17th respectively after two rounds. Cracovia have yet to find the net in domestic play, drawing 0-0 at Lech Poznan before a 0-2 home defeat to Pogon Szczecin. Raków have also struggled, losing both league matches 1-2 and conceding four times, though they have shown some attacking promise in European qualifiers.
The statistical matchup points to a low-scoring contest. Cracovia's league attack has been blunt (0 goals, 1.2 shots on target per game in last five), but their defensive structure has delivered three clean sheets in their last five across all competitions. Raków's league defence has been porous (2.0 conceded per game), but their attack is only marginally more productive (1.0 scored per game). Both sides average under 8 shots per match, and neither has demonstrated set-piece dominance, with corners and fouls both below league averages. Notably, Cracovia's first-half goal rate is higher than their second-half output, while Raków have scored seven of their last nine after the break.
Given these rates, the model expects a cautious first half with both sides wary of early mistakes. The most likely outcome is a draw, with a 1-1 scoreline reflecting Raków's slightly better attacking form and Cracovia's home advantage. Under 2.5 goals is the most probable goals market result, as neither team has shown the firepower or defensive frailty to suggest a high-scoring affair.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
BTTS: Yes
45%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa that most previews miss.
- 1Cracovia have kept three clean sheets in their last five matches across all competitions, despite failing to score in their two league games.
- 2Raków's league matches have both gone over 2.5 goals (100%), but their last five in all competitions average just 1.8 goals scored and 1 conceded.
- 3Only one of the last six head-to-head meetings has seen both teams score, pointing to a trend of one-sided or low-scoring outcomes.
Who do you think wins: Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both teams have averaged one goal or less per game in the league, with Cracovia failing to score in both outings and Raków netting just twice. The draw is the most likely outcome by the model, with a 1-1 reflecting the underlying rates and the high draw probability (0.36).
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Cracovia's league matches have both finished under 2.5 goals (0%), while Raków's defensive numbers are not robust but their attack is also not prolific domestically. The model gives under 2.5 a 59% chance, slightly above typical market rates for this league.
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More Ekstraklasa Predictions
The Case For This Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction
This fixture brings together two sides searching for their first league win, both anchored in the lower reaches of the Ekstraklasa after two rounds. Cracovia have yet to score in the league, while Raków, despite some European success, have lost both domestic outings and conceded four times. Both sides are under early pressure to stabilise, with Cracovia's home record and Raków's away form offering little separation. Statistically, the match profiles as low-scoring. Cracovia's average of 0 goals scored and 1 conceded per league match is matched by Raków's 1 for and 2 against, but over a tiny sample. Cracovia have managed three clean sheets in their last five across all competitions, while Raków have failed to keep any in the league. Shot volumes are modest on both sides, with Cracovia averaging 5.6 shots and Raków 7.8 per match in their last five. Both teams' recent matches have skewed towards first-half caution, with Cracovia netting five of their last six goals before the break. Given the lack of attacking fluency and the tendency for these sides to cancel each other out in recent league meetings, the model expects a tight contest with limited clear chances. The most probable outcome is a draw, with a slight lean to 1-1 based on the away side's marginally higher attacking output in recent matches. Under 2.5 goals is favoured, with neither side showing the firepower or defensive frailty to push the contest into a higher-scoring territory.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →The last 10 head-to-heads are split evenly (4 wins each, 2 draws), with no clear dominance and several low-scoring encounters.
Defence
- →Cracovia have failed to score in both league matches this season, averaging 0 goals for and 1 conceded per game.
- →Raków have lost both league matches, conceding twice in each, but have scored in both outings.
🚩 Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.6 corners for Cracovia Krakow and 4.2 for Raków Częstochowa, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 64% · Over 10.5: 39%.
How Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Cracovia Krakowlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Raków Częstochowalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Cracovia arrive on the back of one point from two league matches, failing to score in either, but with three clean sheets in their last five across all competitions. Raków have lost both league games, conceding twice in each, but have shown some attacking threat in Europe and have scored in four of their last five overall. Both sides are searching for consistency after a patchy start.
Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
Strengths
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
What History Says: Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa
The last 10 meetings are perfectly balanced, with four wins apiece and two draws. Recent encounters have tended towards low scoring, with only one of the last six seeing both teams find the net. Home advantage has mattered, but neither side has dominated the fixture.
Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Cracovia Krakow wins
2
Draws
4
Raków Częstochowa wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa
With no bookmaker odds available, value cannot be formally quantified. The model's strongest conviction is on the draw and under 2.5 goals, both of which are supported by the underlying scoring rates and recent head-to-head patterns. If market odds for the draw or under 2.5 are above 2.80 and 1.80 respectively, they would likely represent value based on these probabilities.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa
- ⚠️Both teams have a limited league sample (2 matches), so early-season volatility is high.
- ⚠️Recent friendlies and European matches may not fully reflect league performance levels.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis, so value edges cannot be quantified.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Raków CzęstochowaThe model projects a 1-1 draw, driven primarily by both teams' low scoring rates (Cracovia 0.0, Raków 1.0 per league match) and the high frequency of draws in their recent head-to-heads. The greatest risk is that Raków's European attacking form translates into a higher domestic output, or that Cracovia's home attack finally clicks, but the underlying rates point to a tight, low-scoring contest.
Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa: Common Questions
Who will win Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
The model gives both Cracovia and Raków a 32% chance of victory, with the draw slightly more likely at 36%. Both teams have struggled for league form, so a stalemate is the most probable outcome.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Both teams to score is rated at 51%, with Cracovia failing to score in both league matches but Raków conceding in every outing. The historical head-to-head leans slightly against BTTS, but the model sees it as a near coin-flip.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 59% probability. Cracovia's league matches have both finished under this line, while Raków's defensive record is shaky but their attack is not prolific domestically.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 9 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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