Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Zaglebie Lubin
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Gornik Zabrze
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.2(+6% edge)
Recommended Bets: Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze
Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze: Match Preview
Zaglebie Lubin enter this fixture sixth in the Ekstraklasa, buoyed by a strong home record (five wins from seven) and a five-match unbeaten run. Their recent form string (DWDWL) includes credible draws away at Lech Poznan and Motor Lublin, and they have not failed to score in any of their last five. Gornik Zabrze, meanwhile, have established themselves as title contenders, sitting second with just one defeat in fourteen and boasting the league's best away record (five wins, two draws, no losses).
Statistically, the matchup is shaped by Gornik's robust defence (0.86 goals conceded per game overall, 0.57 away) and Zaglebie's preference for low-scoring home contests (just four conceded in seven). Gornik generate 21.8 shots and 6.2 on target per match over their last five, but Zaglebie's compactness at home (1.14 goals scored, 0.57 conceded per home game) has frustrated visitors. Both teams trend towards BTTS (Zaglebie 3/5, Gornik 4/5 recently), and neither side has major injury absences.
The model expects a tactical, moderately open contest with Gornik's superior away efficiency likely to tell. Zaglebie's home resilience and Gornik's shot volume point to a narrow away win, but the draw remains a significant runner given both sides' recent stalemates and the H2H home bias.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 1.70
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze that most previews miss.
- 1Gornik Zabrze have averaged just 0.57 goals conceded per away game this season (4 in 7), the lowest in the league.
- 2Seven of the last ten H2H meetings have been won by the home team, but Gornik are unbeaten in all away league matches this campaign.
- 3Zaglebie's home games average just 1.71 total goals (8 for, 4 against in 7), well below the league average.
Who do you think wins: Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.3
The model assigns a 27% probability to the draw, while the market implies 31.25% (odds 3.2), producing a modest positive edge. Both teams have drawn 9 of their combined 28 league matches, and Gornik have drawn 2 of their last 3 away.
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BTTS: Yes@ 1.82
BTTS has landed in 3 of Zaglebie's and 4 of Gornik's last 5, with both averaging 1.4 goals scored per game over that stretch. The model's 56% probability is just above the market's implied.
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More Ekstraklasa Predictions
The Case For This Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction
This fixture pits Zaglebie Lubin's strong home record (5W-1D-1L, just 4 goals conceded at the KGHM Zaglebie Arena) against a Gornik Zabrze side unbeaten away (5W-2D-0L, 12 scored, 4 conceded). While Gornik sit second and have the league's second-best defensive record, Zaglebie's resilience at home and their recent habit of avoiding defeat suggest a competitive contest with a slight edge to the visitors.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in none of their last 5 matches and boast a 71% home win rate.
Defence
- →Gornik Zabrze average just 0.57 goals conceded per away match (4 in 7), the best away defensive record in the league.
Match Context
- →Both teams have seen BTTS in 7 of their last 10 combined league fixtures.
🚩 Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.6 corners for Zaglebie Lubin and 5.2 for Gornik Zabrze, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 64% · Over 10.5: 39%.
How Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Zaglebie Lubinlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Gornik Zabrzelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Zaglebie Lubin are unbeaten in their last four (DWDW) and have not failed to score in any of their last five, with two clean sheets in that span. Gornik Zabrze have lost just once all season and are unbeaten in seven away, with a recent form string of WDDDW and a league-best defensive record on their travels.
Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 22 shots/game
What History Says: Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze
The head-to-head record is dominated by home wins, with seven of the last ten meetings won by the hosts and Zaglebie taking the last four at home. However, Gornik's current away form is the strongest in the league, suggesting the historical H2H trend may be less relevant this time.
Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
7
Zaglebie Lubin wins
0
Draws
3
Gornik Zabrze wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze
The model's main value divergence with the market is on the draw, where a 27% probability at odds of 3.2 offers a modest positive edge. Both teams have a recent tendency to draw, and the H2H history supports a tight contest. BTTS 'yes' also shows a small value edge given recent scoring rates and both teams' reliability in front of goal.
Odds from William Hill. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze
- ⚠️Recent H2H data shows a strong home bias, but Gornik's away form this season is unusually strong.
- ⚠️Model confidence is moderate due to the statistical balance between Zaglebie's home defence and Gornik's away attack.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Zaglebie Lubin 1–2 Gornik ZabrzeA 2-1 away win is the model's most probable outcome, driven by Gornik's league-best away defence (0.57 goals conceded per away match) and their ability to generate high shot volumes. The main risk to this call is Zaglebie's historic home dominance in this H2H and their knack for grinding out draws at home, which keeps the draw probability elevated.
Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze: Common Questions
Who will win Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze are given a 50% win probability by the model, compared to 23% for Zaglebie Lubin and 27% for the draw. Gornik's unbeaten away record and defensive solidity tilt the balance in their favour, but Zaglebie's strong home form and the H2H home bias keep the draw in play.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze?
Both teams to score is rated at 56% by the model, with BTTS landing in 7 of the last 10 combined league games for these sides. Zaglebie have scored in all of their last five, while Gornik have only failed to score once in that span.
Is a draw good value in Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze?
The model finds a small value edge on the draw at odds of 3.2, with a 27% model probability versus a 31.25% market implied probability. Both teams have drawn a combined 9 of 28 league matches, and Gornik have drawn 2 of their last 3 away.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.