Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Cracovia Krakow
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Jagiellonia
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Jagiellonia Win
@ 2.5(+5% edge)
Recommended Bets: Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia
Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia: Match Preview
Cracovia Krakow come into this fixture under a cloud, having lost their last three league matches and slipping to 15th in the table. Their recent form string of LLLDW reflects a side struggling for both results and defensive stability, with eight goals conceded in their last five and just one win since early October. Jagiellonia, by contrast, are riding a wave of momentum: four wins from their last five in all competitions, including a 6-0 cup rout and back-to-back league victories, have propelled them to ninth, with their current form string reading WLWWW.
Statistically, the matchup tilts towards the visitors. Jagiellonia's attack has been ruthless of late, averaging 2.2 goals per game in their last five and particularly dangerous after the break, with seven of their last ten goals coming in the second half. Cracovia's defence has been porous, conceding 1.8 per match over the same period and failing to keep a single clean sheet. Both sides generate a healthy number of corners (Cracovia 5.8, Jagiellonia 5.2 per game), but Cracovia's discipline is a concern, averaging three yellows and a red every five games.
Given the sharp contrast in momentum, the model expects Jagiellonia to assert themselves, especially as the match wears on. Cracovia's ability to score—having found the net in each of their last five—means they are capable of making it competitive, but their defensive lapses and inability to hold leads are likely to be punished by an in-form Jagiellonia front line. A 2-1 away win is projected, with the visitors' second-half strength and Cracovia's current slump decisive.
How Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Cracovia Krakowlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Jagiellonialast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Cracovia's recent form has nosedived, with three straight defeats and just one win in their last five, conceding at least once in every game. In stark contrast, Jagiellonia have surged with four wins from five, including a 6-0 cup win and back-to-back league victories, conceding only twice in that run. The momentum is firmly with the visitors as they travel to Krakow.
Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia that most previews miss.
- 1Cracovia have conceded first in four of their last five matches, often chasing games early.
- 2Jagiellonia have scored seven of their last ten goals after half-time, highlighting their late-match strength.
- 3Both teams have combined for an average of 11 corners per match over their last five league games.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.55
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia Prediction
Momentum could hardly be more divergent as Cracovia Krakow, mired in a three-match losing run, host a Jagiellonia side surging on the back of four wins in their last five across all competitions. Cracovia's recent home form has faltered, with back-to-back defeats and a defence that has shipped eight goals in their last five outings. Jagiellonia, meanwhile, have rediscovered their attacking edge, netting 13 times in their last five, including a six-goal cup demolition and three straight league wins. The tactical battle should be defined by Jagiellonia's efficient attack and Cracovia's defensive frailty. The visitors are averaging 2.2 goals per game over their last five, with a notable second-half surge (seven of their last ten goals after the break). Cracovia, for their part, have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five, conceding 1.8 per match, and their discipline has wavered with 3 yellow cards per game and a recent red. Set pieces may play a role, with Cracovia averaging nearly six corners per game, but their conversion rate remains modest. Expect Jagiellonia to press their form advantage, particularly after half-time, exploiting a Cracovia side low on confidence and leaking goals. While the hosts have managed to score in each of their last five, their inability to close out matches or defend leads is a glaring weakness. The model sees the visitors' momentum as decisive, projecting a 2-1 away win, though Cracovia's high BTTS rate suggests they will not go quietly.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Jagiellonia have won four of their last five matches, scoring 13 goals and conceding just 2 in that span.
- →Cracovia are on a three-match losing streak, conceding 1.8 goals per game in their last five and failing to keep a clean sheet.
- →Cracovia have seen both teams score in each of their last five matches, while Jagiellonia have kept three clean sheets in their last five.
Where the Model Sees Value: Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Jagiellonia Win@ 2.56
Jagiellonia have won four of their last five in all competitions, averaging 2.2 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded per game in that stretch, while Cracovia are on a three-match losing streak and have not kept a clean sheet in their last five.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes@ 1.53
Cracovia have seen both teams score in all of their last five matches, and Jagiellonia's away defence is not watertight (9 conceded in 6 away league games), though the price offers little value.
Read more ↓
More Ekstraklasa Predictions
🚩 Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.2 corners for Cracovia Krakow and 5 for Jagiellonia, for an expected total of 11.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (68%). Over 8.5: 78% · Over 10.5: 56%.
What History Says: Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia
The head-to-head record is finely balanced, with Cracovia holding four wins to Jagiellonia's two in the last ten meetings, and four draws. Recent clashes have often produced goals, including a 5-2 and a 4-2, though the most recent meeting ended goalless. Both sides have shown they can win away in this fixture, adding a layer of unpredictability.
Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Cracovia Krakow wins
4
Draws
2
Jagiellonia wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia
The model finds the best value on the away win at 2.50, with a 5% expected value edge over the implied probability. 'Both teams to score' is likely but priced efficiently, offering little value at 1.55. With no clear edge on BTTS, the away win stands out as the strongest value play given current form trends.
Odds from William Hill. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia
- ⚠️Cracovia's attack has shown signs of life despite poor results, scoring in every one of their last five matches.
- ⚠️Jagiellonia's away record is balanced (3 wins, 3 losses), suggesting some volatility on the road.
- ⚠️No significant injuries reported, but actual lineups are unavailable at this stage.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Cracovia Krakow 1–2 JagielloniaJagiellonia's recent surge—13 goals scored and four wins in their last five—makes them clear form favourites, and the model projects a 2-1 away victory. The single strongest data point is Cracovia's three-match losing streak and lack of clean sheets, which aligns with Jagiellonia's attacking momentum. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if Cracovia's attack, which has quietly scored in five straight, capitalises on Jagiellonia's occasionally shaky away defence to force a draw.
Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia: Common Questions
Who will win Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
The model gives Jagiellonia a 42% chance of victory, compared to 27% for Cracovia and 31% for the draw. Jagiellonia's recent form—four wins in five—gives them the edge, but Cracovia's ability to score keeps the contest competitive.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia?
There's a 58% probability of both teams scoring, driven by Cracovia's record of BTTS in each of their last five matches and Jagiellonia's strong attack. However, Jagiellonia have kept three clean sheets in their last five, so a shutout can't be ruled out.
Can Jagiellonia's winning run continue away from home?
Jagiellonia have won three of their last six away league games and are in excellent recent form overall, with four wins in their last five matches and 2.2 goals scored per game in that stretch. The model rates their chances of extending the run at 42% for the win, with a further 31% for a draw.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.