Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Pogon Szczecin
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Slask Wroclaw
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Pogon Szczecin Win
Recommended Bets: Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw
Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw: Match Preview
Pogon Szczecin return home after a mixed run, sitting fourth in the table with 24 points from 13 matches and a strong home record (4-2-1, +6 goal difference). Their last five in all competitions show volatility—three wins and two defeats, including a heavy 0-3 loss at Widzew Łódź—but their home attack remains consistent. Slask Wroclaw, by contrast, are mired in 17th with just 10 points from 14 games and have failed to win away all season, taking only a single point from seven road trips.
Statistically, the matchup tilts towards goals: Pogon average 2.00 scored per home game and Slask concede 2.14 per away, while both teams’ matches clear the 2.5 goal line at above-league rates (Pogon 46%, Slask 71%). Slask’s away defence is especially porous, but they have managed eight away goals, suggesting some threat in transition. Cards could be a subplot, with Slask collecting 2.6 yellows per game in their last five, but set pieces and corners are unlikely to decide the contest given both sides’ low recent averages.
The model expects Pogon to set the tempo early, with a 62% chance of a goal before 30 minutes and a 56% probability they score first. The most likely scenario is a 2-1 home win, driven by Pogon’s reliable home attack and Slask’s travel sickness. However, Pogon’s recent defensive lapses mean a 1-1 draw is a plausible risk if they fail to convert dominance into goals.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.85
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw that most previews miss.
- 1Slask Wroclaw have conceded 2+ goals in five of their seven away league matches this season.
- 2Pogon Szczecin’s home matches average 3.14 total goals (14 scored, 8 conceded in 7).
- 3Slask Wroclaw have failed to score in only one of their last five league matches.
Who do you think wins: Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Pogon Szczecin Win
Pogon Szczecin have a 57% home win rate this season (4/7), while Slask Wroclaw are winless away (0/7) and concede 2.14 goals per away match. The model rates home win at 51% probability, reflecting the underlying home/away splits.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Slask Wroclaw matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 71% of their league games and Pogon home matches average 3.14 total goals. The model gives 59% for over 2.5, above the typical market baseline.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes
Both teams have scored in 3 of the last 5 for each side, and Slask have failed to score in only 1 of their last 5. Model probability for BTTS is 57%.
Read more ↓
More Ekstraklasa Predictions
The Case For This Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw Prediction
Pogon Szczecin’s robust home output (2.00 goals per home game) meets a Slask Wroclaw side with the league’s second-worst away record, conceding 2.14 per away trip and winless in seven. The underlying rates point to a match with above-average scoring: both teams’ matches average over 2.5 goals per game, and Slask’s defensive record on the road is a persistent liability. Pogon’s attack, while not elite, is reliable at home and should create sustained pressure against a side that allows high shot volumes. The contest is shaped by the contrast between Pogon’s efficiency at home (14 goals in 7) and Slask’s defensive frailty away (15 conceded in 7). Slask’s own attack is not toothless—eight away goals and 1.21 per game overall—but their inability to keep clean sheets (21% season rate) makes them vulnerable, especially in the second half where they’ve conceded the bulk of their recent goals. Set pieces are unlikely to swing the tie, with both teams averaging under four corners per game in the last five, but cards could be a subplot: Slask average 2.6 yellows per match recently. Expect Pogon to dictate early, with a high probability (62%) of a goal before the half-hour and a 56% chance they score first. Slask’s only plausible route is to exploit transitions, but their away scoring rate (1.14 per game) is insufficient to offset their defensive issues. The model’s most likely outcome is a 2-1 home win, with a moderate risk of a 1-1 if Pogon’s attack underperforms.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Pogon Szczecin average 2.00 goals per home match, while Slask Wroclaw concede 2.14 per away.
Match Context
- →Slask Wroclaw have not won away all season (0-1-6), with a -7 away goal difference.
- →Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in more than half their league matches (Pogon 46%, Slask 71%).
🚩 Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.4 corners for Pogon Szczecin and 4.6 for Slask Wroclaw, for an expected total of 9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (58%). Over 8.5: 55% · Over 10.5: 30%.
How Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Pogon Szczecinlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Slask Wroclawlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Pogon Szczecin have alternated between emphatic wins and heavy defeats in recent weeks, but remain formidable at home with four wins from seven. Slask Wroclaw’s form is dire, with just one win in their last five and no away victories all season, conceding 15 in seven away trips.
Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 71.43% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw
The last ten meetings show a slight edge to Slask Wroclaw with five wins, but Pogon Szczecin’s last home clash produced a 5-3 victory. Goals are common in this fixture, with both teams scoring in six of the last ten and only two goalless draws.
Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Pogon Szczecin wins
2
Draws
5
Slask Wroclaw wins
Things to Watch: Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value assessment is limited.
- ⚠️Recent Pogon defensive frailty (2.2 conceded per last 5) raises draw risk if not corrected.
- ⚠️Sample size for some recent averages is small; last 5 matches may not fully reflect true team strength.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Pogon Szczecin 2–1 Slask WroclawThe numbers point to a 2-1 victory for Pogon Szczecin, underpinned by their 2.00 goals per home game and Slask’s winless, leaky away record. The likeliest way this call goes wrong is if Pogon’s defence, which has shipped 2.2 per game in the last five, allows Slask to capitalise on limited chances and force a draw.
Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw: Common Questions
Who will win Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw?
Pogon Szczecin are favoured with a 51% win probability, reflecting their strong home record (4 wins in 7) and Slask Wroclaw’s winless away campaign (0 wins in 7). The draw is rated at 29%, and a Slask away win at 20%.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw?
There is a 57% chance of both teams scoring, as both sides have seen BTTS in three of their last five matches and Slask have failed to score just once in that span.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw?
The model gives a 59% probability for over 2.5 goals, supported by Slask Wroclaw’s 71% season over 2.5 rate and Pogon’s home matches averaging over three goals per game.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 13 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.