Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa Predictions

Legia Warszawa PredictionsRaków Częstochowa PredictionsEkstraklasaH2H Stats
Prediction by The Numbers Desk — No extreme form or market signal — routed to The Numbers Desk, which builds the prediction from the underlying statistical rates.
EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Poland
high confidence
Legia Warszawa

Legia Warszawa

AI Predicted Score

2 - 1

Raków Częstochowa

Raków Częstochowa

🗓️ Sunday, 8 Nov 2026 at 17:30 CET (venue time) · 16:30 UTC (your time)📍 Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Warsaw

Win Probability (1X2)

Legia Warszawa 54%Draw 27%Raków Częstochowa 19%

Best Value Pick

Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5

Read the Preview Play With the Prediction See the Value Calls View Team Form

Recommended Bets: Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa

Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
7/10
Match Result: Legia Warszawa Win
6/10

Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa: Match Preview

Legia Warszawa come into this fixture sitting third in the Ekstraklasa, having lost just once in 13 matches and boasting a +12 goal difference. Their home record is robust: three wins, two draws, and a single defeat, with 13 goals scored and only five conceded at the Stadion Wojska Polskiego. Raków Częstochowa, by contrast, are bottom of the table with just six points from 12 games, and have lost ten times already this season. Despite their struggles, Raków have scored in every one of their last five league matches, but their defensive record is the worst in the league.

Statistically, this is a clash of a high-functioning home attack against the league's most vulnerable defence. Legia average 1.77 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game, while Raków ship 2.33 per match and have yet to keep a clean sheet. Raków's games are consistently open: 91.7% have gone over 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored in all of their last five. Legia's recent matches have been lower scoring, but their shot and possession figures (17 shots, 56% possession vs Lech in their last home game) suggest the underlying process remains strong. Set-piece numbers are ordinary for both sides, but Raków's lower foul count (8 per game last five) could mean fewer defensive set-piece risks.

The model expects Legia's home efficiency and Raków's defensive issues to produce a match with multiple goals. While Legia are favoured to take the points, Raków's consistent scoring and high BTTS rate mean a clean sheet is unlikely for the hosts. The likely scenario is a 2-1 or 2-0 Legia win, with the away side's attacking output keeping the contest open into the second half.

🎮 Prediction Playground

Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.

Legia Warszawa1.90

Expected goals · model says 1.90

Raków Częstochowa1.15

Expected goals · model says 1.15

Win Probability
Legia Warszawa 55% Draw 22% Raków Częstochowa 23%

Over 2.5 Goals

59%

BTTS: Yes

58%

Likely Scores

1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0

Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.

Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.

Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction Confidence at a Glance

How strongly the model leans on each market.

Match Result (1X2)
54%
27%
19%
Legia Warszawa 54%Draw 27%Raków Częstochowa 19%
Both Teams to Score
58%
42%
Yes 58%No 42%
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
60%
40%
Over 2.5 60%Under 2.5 40%
Corners (Over/Under 9.5)
60%
40%
Over 9.5 60%Under 9.5 40%

Stats Worth Knowing

The numbers behind Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa that most previews miss.

  • 1Raków's away matches average 3.0 goals per game (7 scored, 11 conceded in 6).
  • 2Both teams have scored in each of Raków's last five league matches.
  • 3Legia have kept just two clean sheets in their last five league fixtures.

Who do you think wins: Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa?

Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.

More Ekstraklasa Predictions

08-Nov-2026Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie LubinView prediction →08-Nov-2026Jagiellonia vs GKS KatowiceView prediction →07-Nov-2026Widzew Łódź vs Pogon SzczecinView prediction →07-Nov-2026Gornik Zabrze vs Wieczysta KrakówView prediction →07-Nov-2026Slask Wroclaw vs Piast GliwiceView prediction →07-Nov-2026Korona Kielce vs Radomiak RadomView prediction →

The Case For This Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction

Legia Warszawa, strong at home and third in the table, face a Raków side rooted to the bottom but still showing attacking intent. The statistical profile points to a high-probability goal environment, with Raków's defensive frailty offset by a consistent ability to score. Legia's control of home matches and Raków's porous away record set the stage for a match decided by attacking efficiency and defensive lapses.

Key Factors at a Glance

Defence

  • →Legia's home goal difference is +8 (13 scored, 5 conceded in 6 matches).
  • →Raków have conceded 28 goals in 12 league matches (2.33 per game), with zero clean sheets.

Match Context

  • →Over 2.5 goals has landed in 11 of Raków's 12 league matches (91.7%).

🚩 Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa Corners Prediction

medium confidence
10.5expected total corners
Over 60%
Under 40%
Over 9.5Under 9.5

Our corners model projects roughly 5.8 corners for Legia Warszawa and 4.7 for Raków Częstochowa, for an expected total of 10.5. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (60%). Over 8.5: 72% · Over 10.5: 48%.

More corners tips:Over 9.5 →Under 9.5 →

How Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa Are Arriving

Form, fitness and who's likely to start.

Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa Goalscorer Form

Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.

Legia WarszawaLegia Warszawalast 5 matches
Bogdan V'Yunniksub/out
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

M. SevcikXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

R. Adamskisub/out
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

L. ZjawinskiXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Raków CzęstochowaRaków Częstochowalast 5 matches
Lamine Diaby FadigaXI
4 goals in 5
80%

In exceptional form

B. Mirceticsub/out
3 goals in 5
60%

Scoring consistently

P. MakuchXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

N. Zatterstromsub/out
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

A. Molnarsub/out
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Legia are unbeaten in their last four league matches (DLDW), with only one defeat all season and a solid +12 goal difference. Raków, on the other hand, have lost four of their last five and sit bottom, but have managed to score in every recent league outing despite their defensive woes.

Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa — Last 10 Matches

Legia WarszawaLegia WarszawaLast 10 results
D0-0
L1-2
D1-1
W2-0
W3-1
D1-1
W3-2
D1-1
D1-1
W5-0
D@ Gornik Zabrze0-0
Lvs Lech Poznan1-2
D@ Cracovia Krakow1-1
Wvs Wisla Krakow2-0
W@ Jagiellonia3-1
Dvs Widzew Łódź1-1
W@ Motor Lublin3-2
Dvs Slask Wroclaw1-1
D@ Piast Gliwice1-1
Wvs Radomiak Radom5-0
Raków CzęstochowaRaków CzęstochowaLast 10 results
L1-2
W2-1
L1-4
L2-3
L2-3
W2-1
L0-1
L1-2
L2-5
L1-2
L@ Wisla Krakow1-2
W@ Wieczysta Kraków2-1
Lvs GKS Katowice1-4
L@ Korona Kielce2-3
Lvs Zaglebie Lubin2-3
Wvs Motor Lublin2-1
L@ Lech Poznan0-1
Lvs Gornik Zabrze1-2
Lvs Jagiellonia2-5
L@ Cracovia Krakow1-2

Strengths

  • +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
  • +Both teams scoring in most recent games
  • +Over 2.5 goals in 91.67% of games this season
  • +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game

Concerns

  • −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
  • −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
  • −No clean sheets in last 5 matches

What History Says: Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa

The recent head-to-head record is balanced, with four draws in the last six and only one Legia win. Raków have been competitive in Warsaw, taking points in three of the last four visits, and five of the last ten meetings have finished level.

Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa Head-to-Head History

Last 10 meetings between these sides

1

Legia Warszawa wins

5

Draws

4

Raków Częstochowa wins

10%50% draws40%
22 Mar 26Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa1-1
20 Sept 25Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa1-1
16 Mar 25Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa3-2
15 Sept 24Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa0-1
13 Apr 24Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa1-1
8 Oct 23Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa1-2

Things to Watch: Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa

  • ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
  • ⚠️Both teams have played a recent friendly, which may distort last-5 averages.
  • ⚠️Legia's last two league matches have produced only one goal combined, suggesting a potential short-term dip in attacking output.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.

Final Verdict

Legia Warszawa 2–1 Raków Częstochowa

The model projects a 2-1 win for Legia Warszawa, driven by Raków's league-worst defensive record (2.33 conceded per game, 0 clean sheets) and Legia's consistent home output. The biggest risk to this forecast is the recent trend of lower-scoring Legia matches, which could indicate a temporary attacking slowdown.

Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa: Common Questions

Who will win Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa?

Legia Warszawa are favoured with a 54% win probability, reflecting their strong home record (3W, 2D, 1L) and Raków's poor away form (1W, 0D, 5L).

Will both teams score in Legia vs Raków?

The model gives a 58% chance of both teams scoring, as Raków have found the net in all of their last five league games and Legia have conceded in four of their last five.

Is over 2.5 goals likely in this fixture?

There is a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals, with Raków's matches clearing that line in 91.7% of their league games and both sides averaging well above 1 goal scored per match.

How This Prediction Was Made

The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.

This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.

Last updated: 1 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.

More Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa Resources

→

Legia Warszawa Predictions

All Legia Warszawa fixtures & tips

→

Raków Częstochowa Predictions

All Raków Częstochowa fixtures & tips

→

Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa Stats

Full H2H record & season stats

→

Ekstraklasa Predictions

All fixtures for this competition

→

Model Accuracy

Track record & verified results