Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Raków Częstochowa
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Widzew Łódź
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.66(+17% edge)
Recommended Bets: Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź
Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź: Match Preview
Raków Częstochowa approach this fixture in 16th place but with momentum from back-to-back league wins, including a 4-2 away result at Legia Warszawa and a 3-1 home victory over Pogoń Szczecin. Widzew Łódź, sitting 13th, have lost only four of 14 but drawn more than half their matches, reflecting a side that is hard to beat but struggles to turn parity into three points. Both teams are looking to climb away from the relegation zone, with Raków especially desperate to convert improved performances into home results.
Statistically, this is a fixture built for goals. Raków’s home matches average 4.29 goals (12 scored, 18 conceded in 7 games), while Widzew’s away games are tighter at 1.5 scored and conceded per match. Raków’s attack is in good recent form (2.0 goals per game over the last five), but their defence remains the league’s leakiest at home. Widzew have tightened up recently, keeping three clean sheets in their last five, but their away clean sheet rate is just 17%. Set-piece threat is moderate on both sides, with corners averaging 3.4 per team per game in recent matches, and discipline is typical for the league.
The model expects a high-tempo, open contest with both sides likely to score. Raków’s attacking intent and defensive frailty point to a match that swings back and forth, with the most probable outcomes clustering around 2-1 and 1-1. The draw is a strong value play given Widzew’s season-long trend and Raków’s inability to close games at home, but the underlying rates also support over 2.5 goals and BTTS as high-probability outcomes.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.80
Expected goals · model says 1.50
Over 2.5 Goals
64%
BTTS: Yes
65%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-2
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź that most previews miss.
- 1Raków Częstochowa have seen both teams score in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- 2Widzew Łódź have drawn 57% of their league games this season (8/14), the highest rate in the division.
- 3Raków's home matches average 4.29 goals per game, the highest in the Ekstraklasa.
Who do you think wins: Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.61
The draw probability is modelled at 32%, while the odds imply only a 27% chance, giving a clear value edge. Both teams have drawn 8 times combined in 28 league games, and Widzew Łódź have drawn 3 of 6 away.
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The Case For This Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź Prediction
The underlying numbers point to a high-probability goal environment, with Raków Częstochowa's matches averaging 3.86 goals per game and Widzew Łódź's at 2.79. Raków's home attack (1.71 goals per home game) faces a Widzew defence that concedes 1.5 away, but the home side's defensive record is a major liability. Widzew's away output is steady at 1.5 goals scored and conceded per game, supporting the likelihood of both teams finding the net. The historical head-to-head leans Raków's way, but with Widzew posting a high draw rate and neither side showing consistent defensive solidity, the numbers suggest a close contest with goals at both ends.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Raków have conceded 18 goals in 7 home games (2.57 per match), lowest clean sheet % in the league
Match Context
- →Raków Częstochowa's season over 2.5 goals rate is 92.86% (13/14 matches)
- →Widzew Łódź have drawn 8 of 14 league matches, including 3 of 6 away
🚩 Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.6 corners for Raków Częstochowa and 4.6 for Widzew Łódź, for an expected total of 9.1. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 56% · Over 10.5: 31%.
How Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Raków Częstochowalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Widzew Łódźlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Raków Częstochowa have turned a poor start around with three wins in their last four league outings, scoring 9 goals in that span. Widzew Łódź are unbeaten in three, including a convincing 3-0 win over Pogoń Szczecin, but their season has been defined by a high draw rate and a lack of cutting edge away from home.
Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 92.86% of games this season
Strengths
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź
Raków have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning five and drawing three of the last eight encounters, with Widzew yet to register a win in this fixture. The last two meetings in Częstochowa ended all square, but Raków have consistently found the net at home against Widzew.
Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź Head-to-Head History
Last 8 meetings between these sides
5
Raków Częstochowa wins
3
Draws
0
Widzew Łódź wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź
The model identifies the draw at 3.66 as the standout value, with a 32% model probability against a 27% implied by the odds. Other main markets are closely aligned with the bookmakers, and the BTTS 'no' and under 2.5 goal prices do not offer positive expected value based on the underlying rates.
Odds from Marathonbet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź
- ⚠️No significant injuries reported for either side
- ⚠️Both teams played recent friendlies, so potential for rotation or minor knocks is unquantified
- ⚠️Form swings are possible given Raków's recent improvement and Widzew's recent win
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Raków Częstochowa 2–1 Widzew ŁódźA 2-1 home win is the model’s likeliest scoreline, but the single strongest data point is Raków’s 92.86% over 2.5 goals rate, making a high-scoring draw or narrow away win plausible if defensive errors persist. The biggest risk to this view is Widzew’s capacity to grind out draws and Raków’s inability to keep clean sheets at home.
Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź: Common Questions
Who will win Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź?
The model gives Raków a 41% chance of victory, Widzew Łódź a 27% chance, and the draw a 32% probability. Both teams have struggled for consistency, but Raków’s attacking numbers and historical edge make them slight favourites.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Raków vs Widzew?
There is a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals, driven by Raków’s league-high 92.86% over 2.5 rate and their average of 4.29 goals per home match. Both teams’ recent form supports a high-scoring contest.
Is both teams to score a good bet in this match?
Both teams to score is rated at 61%, with Raków seeing BTTS in 4 of their last 5 and Widzew’s away defence conceding in 83% of away matches. However, the odds (1.53) offer little value compared to the model probability.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 15 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.