Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice Predictions

Raków Częstochowa PredictionsGKS Katowice PredictionsEkstraklasaH2H Stats
Prediction by The Numbers Desk — No extreme form or market signal — routed to The Numbers Desk, which builds the prediction from the underlying statistical rates.
EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Poland
medium confidence
Raków Częstochowa

Raków Częstochowa

AI Predicted Score

1 - 2

GKS Katowice

GKS Katowice

🗓️ Friday, 9 Oct 2026 at 20:30 CEST (venue time) · 18:30 UTC (your time)📍 Miejski Stadion Pilkarski Rakow

Win Probability (1X2)

Raków Częstochowa 22%Draw 31%GKS Katowice 47%

Best Value Pick

See full breakdown below

Read the Preview Play With the Prediction See the Value Calls View Team Form

Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice: Match Preview

Raków Częstochowa enter this fixture rooted to the bottom of the Ekstraklasa, having lost eight of their opening nine matches and conceding a league-high 21 goals. Their only win came at home against Motor Lublin, but even on their own ground, they've lost four of five, leaking 13 goals. GKS Katowice, sitting mid-table, bring a more positive trajectory with four wins from eight and a recent 3-2 victory over Cracovia Krakow, though their away form is patchy with four losses in five on the road.

The statistical profile is shaped by both teams' high-scoring tendencies. Raków's home matches average 4.2 goals, with 88.9% over 2.5, and Katowice's away games are not far behind at 3.0 goals per match and 87.5% over 2.5. Raków average 1.6 goals scored and 2.6 conceded per home game, while Katowice's away defence allows 2.0 per match. Both sides create a healthy volume of shots (Raków 15, Katowice 16.8 per game last five), but neither keeps clean sheets reliably—just one clean sheet between them in their last ten combined league games. Cards and corners are also above league average, with Raków averaging 2.6 yellows and 4.8 corners per match in their last five.

Given these trends, the model expects an open match with multiple goals and a strong likelihood of both teams scoring. Katowice's superior attacking output (2.0 goals per game) and Raków's defensive vulnerability (0% clean sheets) make the away win the likeliest outcome, but the hosts' ability to create chances and the frequency of high-scoring draws in recent H2H meetings keep the probabilities for a draw and BTTS relatively high.

🎮 Prediction Playground

Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.

Raków Częstochowa1.50

Expected goals · model says 1.50

GKS Katowice2.05

Expected goals · model says 2.05

Win Probability
Raków Częstochowa 28% Draw 21% GKS Katowice 50%

Over 2.5 Goals

69%

BTTS: Yes

68%

Likely Scores

1-2 · 1-1 · 2-2

Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.

Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.

Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice Prediction Confidence at a Glance

How strongly the model leans on each market.

Match Result (1X2)
22%
31%
47%
Raków Częstochowa 22%Draw 31%GKS Katowice 47%
Both Teams to Score
64%
36%
Yes 64%No 36%
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
71%
29%
Over 2.5 71%Under 2.5 29%
Corners (Over/Under 9.5)
60%
40%
Over 9.5 60%Under 9.5 40%

Stats Worth Knowing

The numbers behind Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice that most previews miss.

  • 1Raków's home matches have seen over 2.5 goals in 8 of 9 league fixtures this season (88.9%).
  • 2GKS Katowice have scored 9 of their last 12 league goals in the second half, highlighting a late-game scoring trend.
  • 3Across the last 10 H2H meetings, only one finished with more than a one-goal margin.

Who do you think wins: Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice?

Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.

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The Case For This Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice Prediction

Statistically, this fixture projects as a high-scoring contest between a struggling Raków Częstochowa side and a GKS Katowice team with a sharper attacking edge but a leaky away defence. Raków's home matches average 4.2 total goals, with 88.9% going over 2.5, while Katowice's away games see 3.0 goals per match and an 87.5% over 2.5 rate. The away side's superior scoring rate (2.0 goals per game across the season) and Raków's defensive frailty (0% clean sheets, 2.33 conceded per match) tilt the model toward a Katowice away win, but the hosts' ability to create chances (15 shots per game last 5) and frequent BTTS outcomes (4 of last 5) keep the draw and BTTS probabilities elevated.

Key Factors at a Glance

Attack

  • →GKS Katowice average 2.0 goals scored per match this season and have scored 8 in their last 5 away games.
  • →Both teams' matches are consistently high-scoring: Raków over 2.5 in 88.9% of games, Katowice over 2.5 in 87.5%.

Defence

  • →Raków have lost 8 of 9 league matches, conceding 21 goals (2.33 per game) and keeping no clean sheets.

🚩 Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice Corners Prediction

medium confidence
10.5expected total corners
Over 60%
Under 40%
Over 9.5Under 9.5

Our corners model projects roughly 5.3 corners for Raków Częstochowa and 5.2 for GKS Katowice, for an expected total of 10.5. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (60%). Over 8.5: 72% · Over 10.5: 48%.

More corners tips:Over 9.5 →Under 9.5 →

How Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice Are Arriving

Form, fitness and who's likely to start.

Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice Goalscorer Form

Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.

Raków CzęstochowaRaków Częstochowalast 5 matches
P. MakuchXI
3 goals in 5
60%

Scoring consistently

L. Diaby-FadigaXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

B. Mirceticsub/out
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

M. BulatXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

M. EmreliXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

GKS KatowiceGKS Katowicelast 5 matches
I. ShkurinXI
5 goals in 5
100%

In exceptional form

A. Jedrychsub/out
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

M. WdowiakXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

B. NowakXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

E. Markovicsub/out
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

P. RestaXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Raków Częstochowa are mired in a severe slump, losing eight of their last nine league matches and conceding at least two goals in all but one. GKS Katowice, in contrast, have won three of their last five, including a 3-2 home win last time out, and are trending upward despite an inconsistent away record.

Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice — Last 9 Matches

Raków CzęstochowaRaków CzęstochowaLast 9 results
L2-3
L2-3
W2-1
L0-1
L1-2
L2-5
L1-2
L1-2
L1-2
L@ Korona Kielce2-3
Lvs Zaglebie Lubin2-3
Wvs Motor Lublin2-1
L@ Lech Poznan0-1
Lvs Gornik Zabrze1-2
Lvs Jagiellonia2-5
L@ Cracovia Krakow1-2
L@ Slask Wroclaw1-2
Lvs Wisla Plock1-2

Strengths

  • +Both teams scoring in most recent games
  • +Over 2.5 goals in 88.89% of games this season
  • +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
  • +Dominant in possession — 57% avg

Concerns

  • −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
  • −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
  • −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
GKS KatowiceGKS KatowiceLast 8 results
W3-2
L1-2
L0-3
W3-2
W5-0
L0-1
W3-1
L1-2
Wvs Cracovia Krakow3-2
L@ Zaglebie Lubin1-2
L@ Piast Gliwice0-3
W@ Gornik Zabrze3-2
Wvs Wisla Plock5-0
L@ Motor Lublin0-1
Wvs Radomiak Radom3-1
L@ Wisla Krakow1-2

Strengths

  • +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
  • +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
  • +Over 2.5 goals in 87.5% of games this season
  • +High-volume attack — 17 shots/game

What History Says: Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice

Raków have historically had the upper hand in this matchup, winning five of the last nine meetings and losing just once. Most recent encounters have been tight, with only one of the last ten decided by more than a single goal, and draws have been common, including two in the last four competitive fixtures.

Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice Head-to-Head History

Last 9 meetings between these sides

5

Raków Częstochowa wins

3

Draws

1

GKS Katowice wins

56%33% draws11%
16 Jul 26GKS Katowice vs Raków Częstochowa1-1
9 Apr 26Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice3-3
7 Dec 25Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice1-0
19 Jul 25GKS Katowice vs Raków Częstochowa0-1
8 Feb 25Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice1-2
3 Aug 24GKS Katowice vs Raków Częstochowa0-1

Things to Watch: Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice

  • ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value or edge calculations are possible.
  • ⚠️Lineups are not released; late injuries or rotations could affect attacking/defensive strength.
  • ⚠️Sample size for away team away games is small (5 matches), so goal rates may be volatile.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.

Final Verdict

Raków Częstochowa 1–2 GKS Katowice

The model projects a 2-1 away win for GKS Katowice, driven primarily by Raków's league-worst defensive record (2.33 conceded per game, no clean sheets) and Katowice's consistent attacking output. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if Raków's attack, which averages 15 shots and 1.6 goals per home game, capitalises on Katowice's leaky away defence to force a high-scoring draw.

Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice: Common Questions

Who will win Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice?

GKS Katowice are the statistical favourites with a 47% win probability, compared to 22% for Raków and 31% for the draw. This is based on Katowice's stronger attack and Raków's defensive struggles.

Will both teams score in Raków vs Katowice?

Both teams to score is rated at 64%, reflecting Raków's 4 BTTS games in their last 5 and Katowice's strong attacking numbers but inconsistent defence.

Is over 2.5 goals likely in Raków vs Katowice?

The probability for over 2.5 goals is 71%, supported by both teams' matches going over this line in nearly 9 out of 10 games this season.

How This Prediction Was Made

The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.

This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.

Last updated: 2 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.

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Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice Stats

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Model Accuracy

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