San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo Predictions
Major League Soccer · USA
San Jose Earthquakes
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Houston Dynamo
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.6(+22% edge)
Match Result
7/10San Jose Earthquakes Edge Dynamo in Gritty 1-0 Battle at PayPal Park
San Jose Earthquakes secured a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Houston Dynamo at PayPal Park, relying on defensive resilience and a crucial first-half goal to claim all three points. In a match where Houston dominated possession with 62% and registered more shots on target, the Earthquakes made their solitary effort count, striking in the 38th minute to break the deadlock. Houston Dynamo pressed relentlessly, firing 11 shots with five on target, but were repeatedly denied by a disciplined San Jose backline and goalkeeper A. Gunn. Despite their territorial advantage, the Dynamo struggled to convert chances, while San Jose, playing in a compact 3-4-2-1, absorbed pressure and managed the game with determination, even as tempers flared and four home players entered the referee’s book.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
38' — Goal
O. Bouda scores for San Jose Earthquakes, finishing off a rare attacking move to give the hosts the lead.
45' — Yellow Card
San Jose pick up their first yellow card as the first half ends with rising tension.
60' — Yellow Card
Second San Jose booking as they continue to disrupt Houston's flow.
70' — Yellow Card
Third yellow for San Jose as they dig in defensively.
80' — Yellow Card
Fourth San Jose player booked for a tactical foul to halt a Dynamo counter.
85' — Yellow Card
Houston Dynamo receive their only yellow card as frustration mounts late on.
San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes executed a disciplined defensive game plan, conceding the majority of possession but maintaining structure and focus. Their 3-4-2-1 formation allowed them to crowd the midfield and limit Houston's creative outlets, while a swift move in the 38th minute provided the decisive goal. Despite only registering one shot on target from 10 attempts, they made it count and then managed the game with tactical fouls and compact defending. The Earthquakes' intensity was reflected in their 17 fouls and four yellow cards, showing a willingness to disrupt Houston's rhythm. Their ability to hold onto the lead under sustained pressure was a testament to their organization and resilience.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo controlled the tempo for large stretches, boasting 62% possession and creating more chances with 11 shots, five of which were on target. Their 4-2-3-1 formation enabled them to dominate the midfield and push San Jose deep, but their inability to convert pressure into goals proved costly. Despite a composed display and fewer disciplinary issues (just one yellow card), Houston lacked the cutting edge in the final third. Their set-piece threat yielded three corners, but the Earthquakes' defense stood firm, leaving Dynamo frustrated in front of goal.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
San Jose’s 3-4-2-1 setup prioritized defensive solidity, with three center-backs shielding A. Gunn and a congested midfield making it difficult for Houston to find space between the lines. The wing-backs dropped deep, effectively forming a back five when out of possession, while the two advanced midfielders supported lone forward O. Bouda on rare counters. Houston’s 4-2-3-1 focused on ball retention and width, with M. Bogusz orchestrating play and D. McGuire stretching the defense. Despite their territorial dominance, the Dynamo’s attacks often broke down in the final third, as San Jose’s disciplined shape and tactical fouling stifled creativity. Substitutions did little to alter the tactical balance, as San Jose remained compact and saw out the result.
Turning Point
O. Bouda’s 38th-minute goal gave San Jose a lead to defend, fundamentally shaping the match’s defensive narrative.
Man of the Match
A. Gunn
Produced a series of crucial saves to preserve San Jose’s narrow lead and secure the clean sheet.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo: Match Preview
San Jose Earthquakes approach this fixture on a five-match winless run (DDLLL), having taken just two points from their last five and conceding 10 goals in that span. Their home record this season is middling (4W, 2D, 5L), and they sit 6th in the table, five points behind Houston, who are 2nd and unbeaten in their last four (DDLWW).
The underlying numbers point to a low-scoring contest: both sides have averaged just 0.6 goals scored per game over their last five, with Houston conceding only 0.4 per match and keeping four clean sheets in that stretch. San Jose's attack has struggled for penetration, averaging 3.6 shots on target per game recently, while Houston's away defence has been resilient despite conceding 19 in 12 away matches across the season. Both teams' matches have trended under, with Houston's over 2.5 rate at just 34.8% for the season.
The model projects a tight, tactical battle with neither side likely to dominate. With both teams' recent matches featuring few clear chances and the last head-to-head ending goalless, the likeliest outcome is a draw, with a modest probability edge on the under 2.5 goals market given the current attacking output and defensive solidity on display.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
44%
BTTS: Yes
50%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo that most previews miss.
- 1Houston have kept four clean sheets in their last five, conceding just twice in that span.
- 2San Jose's last three home games have all featured over 2.5 goals, but their last five overall average just 2.6 total goals.
- 3The last six head-to-head meetings have produced four results of under 2.5 goals.
Who do you think wins: San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 2.25
Both teams have averaged below 1 goal scored per game over their last five matches (San Jose 0.6, Houston 0.6), and Houston's season-long over 2.5 rate is just 34.8%. The model assigns a 52% chance to under 2.5, making the available price a clear value.
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Match Result: Draw@ 3.63
With both sides drawing two of their last three and the last head-to-head ending 0-0, the model's 34% draw probability outpaces the market's 27.8% implied, suggesting value in a stalemate.
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More Major League Soccer Predictions
The Case For This San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo Prediction
A statistical deadlock is forecast at PayPal Park, where San Jose's declining attack meets a Houston side excelling defensively but rarely prolific on the road. Both teams' recent output points to a low-scoring contest, with neither attack showing the sharpness to tilt the balance decisively.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →San Jose's last five: 0.6 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
- →Houston's last five: 0.6 goals scored, 0.4 conceded per game, four clean sheets.
Match Context
- →San Jose home over 2.5 goals: 54.5%; Houston away over 2.5: 41.7%.
🚩 San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 3.8 corners for San Jose Earthquakes and 4.8 for Houston Dynamo, for an expected total of 8.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (64%). Over 8.5: 50% · Over 10.5: 25%.
How San Jose Earthquakes and Houston Dynamo Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
San Jose Earthquakeslast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Houston Dynamolast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
San Jose are on a five-match winless run, scoring just three times and conceding ten. Houston have drawn their last two but are unbeaten in four, with four clean sheets and only two goals conceded in their last five, signalling a defensive upswing.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo
Houston have won five of the last ten meetings, including two of the last three away at San Jose. The last encounter ended 0-0, and four of the last six have gone under 2.5 goals, indicating a trend toward low-scoring, closely contested matches.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
San Jose Earthquakes wins
2
Draws
5
Houston Dynamo wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo
The model finds value in both the under 2.5 goals market (model 52% vs. market 45%) and the draw (model 34% vs. market 28%). Both bets are supported by recent form and head-to-head trends, with the current odds not fully reflecting the low-scoring, balanced profile of these sides.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo
- ⚠️Both teams have shown volatility in season-long attack, with San Jose's home and Houston's away matches producing above-average goals earlier in the campaign.
- ⚠️Recent form samples are small and may understate attacking potential if key players regain form.
- ⚠️No major injuries, but possible tactical rotation is unknown pre-lineups.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Houston DynamoThe model forecasts a 1-1 draw, with the strongest signal coming from both teams' recent scoring droughts (0.6 goals per game each over the last five). The main risk is a reversion to the mean from San Jose's attack or Houston's away defence, both of which have shown higher volatility earlier in the campaign.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo: Common Questions
Who will win San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo?
The model gives San Jose a 34% chance, Houston a 32% chance, and the draw 34%. Both teams are in patchy form, and the last head-to-head finished 0-0, so a stalemate is the most probable outcome.
Will both teams score in San Jose vs Houston?
There's a 53% probability that both teams will score, based on recent defensive numbers and the season-long BTTS rates. However, Houston's defence has been particularly strong lately, with four clean sheets in five.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for San Jose vs Houston?
Yes, the model assigns a 52% chance to under 2.5 goals, compared to the market's implied 45%. Both teams have averaged just 0.6 goals scored per game over their last five, and Houston's over 2.5 rate is only 34.8% on the season.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 9 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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