San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City Predictions
Major League Soccer · USA
San Jose Earthquakes
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 2
St. Louis City
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: St. Louis City Win
@ 3.6(+44% edge)
Match Result
7.2/10St. Louis City Outclass San Jose with Clinical 3-1 Away Win
St. Louis City produced a commanding display at PayPal Park, dispatching San Jose Earthquakes 3-1 in a match defined by their efficiency in front of goal and control of key moments. The visitors struck early, taking the lead in the 8th minute, and doubled their advantage before the half-hour mark. San Jose responded after the break with a goal in the 47th minute, but St. Louis quickly extinguished hopes of a comeback by restoring their two-goal cushion just eight minutes later. Despite a spirited effort from the Earthquakes, St. Louis City's composure and tactical discipline proved decisive. The away side managed the game well after their third goal, absorbing pressure and maintaining their lead with a mature performance. Both teams picked up yellow cards in a physical encounter, but it was St. Louis who emerged deserved winners on the night.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 3
💰 Bet Results0/0 hit
Key Moments
8' — Goal
St. Louis City take an early lead with a well-taken finish.
27' — Goal
St. Louis double their advantage, capitalizing on defensive uncertainty.
47' — Goal
San Jose Earthquakes pull one back early in the second half, raising hopes of a comeback.
55' — Goal
St. Louis City restore their two-goal lead, quelling San Jose's momentum.
Home yellow card' — Yellow Card
San Jose player booked as frustrations mount.
Away yellow cards' — Yellow Card
St. Louis pick up two bookings in a physical contest.
San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes struggled to recover from a slow start, conceding twice in the opening 27 minutes. Their response after halftime was positive, as they pulled a goal back in the 47th minute to spark hopes of a revival. However, defensive lapses allowed St. Louis to quickly restore their two-goal lead, leaving the Earthquakes chasing the game for the remainder of the match. Despite moments of attacking promise, San Jose lacked the cutting edge to truly threaten a comeback. Their efforts were further hampered by a yellow card, and they ultimately fell short against a more clinical opponent.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
St. Louis City
St. Louis City delivered a professional away performance, capitalizing on early opportunities to build a commanding lead. Their goals in the 8th and 27th minutes set the tone, and even when San Jose threatened a comeback, St. Louis responded swiftly with a third goal in the 55th minute to put the result beyond doubt. The visitors showed discipline both defensively and in midfield, managing the tempo after their third goal and seeing out the match with minimal fuss. Two yellow cards were the only blemish on an otherwise impressive outing.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With lineups and formations unavailable, the flow of the match suggested St. Louis City set up to press early and capitalize on San Jose's defensive vulnerabilities, which paid dividends with two first-half goals. Their ability to respond quickly to San Jose's goal after halftime highlighted their tactical discipline and focus. St. Louis managed the game well after re-establishing their lead, likely dropping deeper and focusing on organization to frustrate the hosts. San Jose Earthquakes, meanwhile, showed more attacking intent after the break but lacked the defensive solidity to sustain pressure. Their inability to prevent St. Louis from scoring a third proved costly, as they struggled to break down a resolute visiting side in the closing stages.
Turning Point
St. Louis City's goal in the 55th minute, which restored their two-goal cushion just as San Jose were building momentum, decisively shifted the match in the visitors' favor.
Man of the Match
St. Louis scorer (55')
Scored the crucial third goal that killed off San Jose's comeback hopes and delivered a composed all-round performance.
San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City: Match Preview
San Jose Earthquakes come into this clash desperate to arrest a worrying slide, having taken just one point from their last four MLS matches and conceding four goals in each of their last two outings. Their early-season solidity has evaporated, and with only four wins in nine at PayPal Park, their home advantage looks diminished. St. Louis City, meanwhile, are surging up the table, unbeaten in five and collecting 13 points from the last 15 available, a run powered by a suddenly prolific attack and a much-improved defensive record.
The tactical contrast here is stark. St. Louis have averaged 18.2 shots and 2.2 goals per game over their last five, while conceding less than a goal per match. San Jose, in the same stretch, are leaking 2.4 goals per game and have failed to keep a single clean sheet, despite averaging just 7.6 shots per match themselves. Set pieces could play a role, with St. Louis winning an average of 6.6 corners recently, while San Jose’s discipline has been questionable at 2.2 yellows per game. The visitors’ ability to control possession (57% last five) could further tilt the balance.
Given the recent trajectories, the model expects St. Louis City’s form to carry them to another positive result, especially against a San Jose side whose confidence is clearly shaken. While San Jose have the attacking talent to respond, their defensive frailties and the visitors’ momentum point to an away win, with the most likely scenario seeing St. Louis capitalising on early pressure and holding off a late Earthquakes push.
How San Jose Earthquakes and St. Louis City Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
San Jose Earthquakeslast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
St. Louis Citylast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
San Jose Earthquakes are in the midst of a worrying slump, taking just one point from their last four league matches and conceding 12 in their last five. In contrast, St. Louis City have surged up the table with four wins and a draw in their last five, transforming both their attack and defensive solidity. The visitors' momentum is clear, while San Jose look short on confidence and organisation.
San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +High-volume attack — 18 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 57% avg
San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City that most previews miss.
- 1St. Louis City have scored at least twice in four of their last five matches, while San Jose have conceded 4+ in two straight.
- 2Six of the last eight head-to-heads have seen both teams score, with St. Louis City winning three straight at PayPal Park.
- 3St. Louis City are averaging 6.6 corners per game over their last five, a notable uptick from their season average.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.45
Expected goals · model says 1.70
Over 2.5 Goals
61%
BTTS: Yes
63%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 2-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City?
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The Case For This San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City Prediction
Momentum is surging in opposite directions for these two Western Conference sides. St. Louis City have found their stride with four wins and a draw in their last five, while San Jose Earthquakes are reeling from a run of three defeats and a draw in their last four outings. The visitors' high shot volume and improved defensive resilience have transformed them into one of the form teams in MLS, while San Jose's defence has unravelled at the wrong time.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →St. Louis City average 2.2 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded per game over their last five matches.
- →San Jose Earthquakes have conceded 12 goals in their last five, with zero clean sheets in that span.
Match Context
- →St. Louis City have won six of the last eight head-to-head meetings, including three of four away.
Where the Model Sees Value: San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: St. Louis City Win@ 3.29
St. Louis City arrive with four wins and a draw in their last five, averaging 2.2 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded per game in that stretch. San Jose, by contrast, have lost three of their last four and conceded 12 in their last five, with no clean sheets. The model sees a +44% edge against the odds for an away win, driven by the visitors' surging form and San Jose's defensive collapse.
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Double Chance: Draw or St. Louis City@ 1.8
With St. Louis City unbeaten in five (DWWWW) and San Jose on a run of LDLLW, the probability of the visitors avoiding defeat is 73% versus implied odds of 56%. The away side's momentum and San Jose's defensive frailty make X2 a strong value play.
Read more ↓
More Major League Soccer Predictions
🚩 San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for San Jose Earthquakes and 6 for St. Louis City, for an expected total of 10.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (64%). Over 8.5: 75% · Over 10.5: 52%.
What History Says: San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City
St. Louis City have dominated this fixture, winning six of the last eight meetings and three straight at PayPal Park. Both teams have scored in six of those encounters, but St. Louis have consistently found ways to edge tight games. The recent 3-2 win away in April further underlines their advantage in this matchup.
San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City Head-to-Head History
Last 8 meetings between these sides
2
San Jose Earthquakes wins
0
Draws
6
St. Louis City wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City
The strongest value lies with the away win, where the model's 40% probability far exceeds the 28% implied by odds of 3.6, representing a +44% edge. Double chance X2 is also notably mispriced, with a 73% model probability against 56% implied, making it a strong value selection given the form trends.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City
- ⚠️San Jose's season-long home record (4W 2D 3L) is stronger than recent form suggests.
- ⚠️St. Louis City's away record over the season is poor (2W 3D 4L, 8 scored, 14 conceded) despite recent improvement.
- ⚠️If San Jose rediscover their early-season defensive solidity, the away win probability could be overstated.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
San Jose Earthquakes 1–2 St. Louis CityThe model calls for a 2-1 away win, with St. Louis City's five-match unbeaten streak and recent attacking output the standout data point. The biggest risk is San Jose snapping out of their defensive funk at home, but the visitors’ momentum and head-to-head dominance tip the scales.
San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City: Common Questions
Who will win San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City?
The model gives St. Louis City a 40% chance of victory, compared to 27% for San Jose and 33% for the draw. This is driven by St. Louis's strong recent form and San Jose's defensive struggles.
Will St. Louis City's hot streak continue against San Jose?
St. Louis City are unbeaten in five (DWWWW), averaging 2.2 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded per game in that run. The model sees their momentum carrying over, especially given San Jose's recent defensive lapses.
Is both teams to score likely in this match?
Yes, both teams to score is rated at 68% probability. San Jose have seen BTTS in four of their last five, and six of the last eight head-to-heads have delivered goals at both ends.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 9 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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