Sassuolo vs Bologna Predictions
Serie A · Italy
Sassuolo
Full Time
0 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Bologna
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
@ 4(+19% edge)
Match Result
7/10Early Dallinga Strike Earns Bologna Gritty Win at Sassuolo
Bologna claimed a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Sassuolo at the MAPEI Stadium, courtesy of an early goal from Thijs Dallinga in the sixth minute. Despite Sassuolo enjoying the lion’s share of possession (54%) and forcing four saves from Łukasz Skorupski, the hosts were unable to break down a resilient Bologna defence. The visitors, meanwhile, were more incisive in attack, registering 16 shots and capitalizing on their bright start to secure all three points. The match was characterized by Sassuolo’s attempts to chase the game after conceding early, but Bologna’s compact shape and disciplined midfield protected their slender lead. Both teams saw yellow cards in a match that was competitive but rarely boiled over, and Bologna’s defensive organization ultimately proved decisive as they withstood late pressure from the home side.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
0 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
6' — Goal
Thijs Dallinga finishes off a swift Bologna move to give the visitors an early lead.
22' — Yellow Card
Nikola Moro booked for a tactical foul, slowing down a Sassuolo counter.
38' — Yellow Card
Riccardo Orsolini shown yellow for dissent after a foul in midfield.
55' — Yellow Card
Kristian Thorstvedt cautioned for a late challenge as Sassuolo pressed for an equalizer.
75' — Corner
Sassuolo win their seventh corner, but Bologna clear the danger.
Sassuolo
Sassuolo started slowly and were punished by Dallinga’s early goal, forcing them to play catch-up for the remainder of the match. While they controlled possession (54%) and created several promising moments, their attacking trio of Berardi, Pinamonti, and Laurienté struggled to find a breakthrough against a disciplined Bologna back line. Despite winning seven corners and firing nine shots (four on target), Sassuolo lacked the cutting edge in the final third and were ultimately frustrated by Bologna’s defensive resilience.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Bologna
Bologna made the perfect start as Thijs Dallinga found the net in the sixth minute, setting the tone for a disciplined away performance. Despite having less of the ball (46% possession), Bologna were purposeful in attack, registering 16 shots and threatening on the counter. Their defensive unit, marshaled by Lucumí and Vitík, stood firm under pressure, while the midfield duo of Sohm and Moro provided excellent cover. Bologna’s game management after taking the lead was impressive, and they limited Sassuolo to few clear-cut chances.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Sassuolo lined up in a 4-3-3, seeking to control the tempo through midfield trio Matić, Koné, and Thorstvedt, with Berardi and Laurienté providing width. Their approach relied on patient buildup and set-piece opportunities, as evidenced by their seven corners. However, Bologna’s 4-2-3-1 proved effective defensively, with Sohm and Moro screening the back four and Orsolini tracking back to support De Silvestri on the right. After taking the lead, Bologna sat deeper, inviting Sassuolo to break them down and looking to hit on the counter through Cambiaghi and Odgaard. Substitutions and tactical tweaks from Sassuolo in the second half sought to inject more attacking impetus, but Bologna’s compact shape and organization held firm. The visitors’ willingness to cede possession in favor of defensive solidity and quick transitions ultimately proved the difference.
Turning Point
Dallinga’s goal in the sixth minute forced Sassuolo to chase the game, allowing Bologna to settle into a defensive posture and control proceedings from there.
Man of the Match
Thijs Dallinga
Scored the decisive goal and led the line with tireless pressing and intelligent movement.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 0.85
Expected goals · model says 0.90
Over 2.5 Goals
26%
BTTS: Yes
34%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Sassuolo vs Bologna Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Sassuolo vs Bologna(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: Yes@ 4
Model probability for BTTS (yes) is 44%, well above the odds-implied 25%. Both teams have moderate attack and defensive vulnerabilities, and H2H shows 7/10 BTTS.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 4.8
Model probability for over 2.5 is 29% vs odds-implied 21%. Sassuolo's matches have a 57% over 2.5 rate, and H2H has seen several 2+ goal games.
Read more ↓
More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Sassuolo vs Bologna Prediction
This is a mid-table Serie A clash between two closely matched sides, Sassuolo and Bologna, separated by just one point in the standings. Both teams have shown inconsistent form but are generally hard to beat, with a high draw probability. Sassuolo's recent home form is patchy, while Bologna have been strong away recently. Defensive improvement from Bologna is notable (4 clean sheets in last 5), but Sassuolo's attack at home remains a threat. Expect a tactical, cagey contest with a slight edge towards a low-scoring draw, but both teams have enough quality to find the net.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Recent H2H: 7 of last 10 meetings saw both teams score; 4 draws in last 6.
Attack
- →Bologna's away attack is solid (23 goals in 14 away games).
Defence
- →Bologna have 4 clean sheets in last 5, but also allowed 2 goals in their most recent match.
- →Sassuolo's home record is average (6W 2D 6L), and they concede 1.43 goals/game at home.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →Both teams are mid-table, with similar points and goal differences.
- →Bookmaker odds are even, but model finds value on BTTS and over 2.5 goals.
🚩 Sassuolo vs Bologna Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for Sassuolo and 5 for Bologna, for an expected total of 9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 54% · Over 10.5: 29%.
How Sassuolo and Bologna Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Sassuolo vs Bologna Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Sassuololast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Bolognalast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Sassuolo vs Bologna — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
What History Says: Sassuolo vs Bologna
Sassuolo vs Bologna Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Sassuolo wins
4
Draws
4
Bologna wins
Things to Watch: Sassuolo vs Bologna
- ⚠️Missing detailed shots, possession, and set piece data for Sassuolo's last 5 matches.
- ⚠️Both teams are inconsistent and capable of both strong and weak performances.
- ⚠️Low-scoring probability is high, but H2H and team profiles support some goal potential.
- ⚠️Market odds are very tight; margins for value are slim.
- ⚠️Europa League involvement for Bologna could affect rotation/fatigue but no injuries reported.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Sassuolo vs Bologna: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 March 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.