Bologna vs Sassuolo Predictions
Serie A · Italy
Bologna
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Sassuolo
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.3(+9% edge)
Bologna vs Sassuolo: Match Preview
Bologna enter this fixture after a cagey 0-1 home defeat to Lazio, having failed to find the net in their Serie A opener. Their pre-season was mixed, with two wins and three defeats, but the competitive sample is thin. Sassuolo arrive with three points from two matches, having edged Torino 2-1 at home but lost 1-2 at Atalanta. Both teams sit in the lower mid-table, neither under immediate pressure but both seeking early momentum.
The statistical matchup is defined by moderate attacking output and some defensive frailty. Bologna's last five matches average 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded, but their only league outing produced no goals. Sassuolo's last five average 1.8 scored and 2 conceded, with a notable 22 shots generated at Atalanta but only one goal to show for it. Both sides have been involved in matches where both teams scored (Bologna 2/5, Sassuolo 4/5), but the season over 2.5 goal rates diverge: 0% for Bologna, 100% for Sassuolo, though both are based on minimal data. Corners and cards rates are unremarkable, with no clear set-piece or discipline edge.
Given the early-season context and the statistical shape of both teams, the model projects a balanced contest with limited clear-cut chances. The most likely outcome is a draw, with 1-1 the modal scoreline. Both teams' shot volumes suggest some attacking intent, but conversion rates and defensive structure point to a contest decided by fine margins.
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Expected goals · model says 1.40
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS: Yes
50%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Bologna vs Sassuolo Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Bologna vs Sassuolo that most previews miss.
- 1Across the last ten head-to-heads, exactly half have finished level, including two of the last three in Bologna.
- 2Sassuolo have seen both teams score in four of their last five matches, but have kept just one clean sheet in that span.
- 3Bologna's only Serie A match this season saw them register 14 shots and 59% possession, but they failed to score.
Who do you think wins: Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Bologna vs Sassuolo(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.39
The model assigns a 33% probability to the draw, higher than the 30.3% implied by odds of 3.3. Both sides have shown limited attacking edge early in the season (Bologna 0 goals, Sassuolo 1 goal away), and four of the last ten head-to-heads have finished level.
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The Case For This Bologna vs Sassuolo Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a low-to-moderate scoring contest between two sides with similar early-season profiles. Bologna have struggled to create clear chances in competitive play, while Sassuolo's away attack output has been modest. The distribution of recent results and historical head-to-heads both point toward a tightly contested match, with the draw as the modal outcome.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Bologna have failed to score in their only Serie A match so far and averaged just 1.2 goals per game across their last five in all competitions.
Defence
- →Sassuolo's away record shows 1 goal scored and 2 conceded from their sole league trip, with a last-5 average of 1.8 goals scored and 2 conceded per game.
Match Context
- →Four of the last ten meetings have ended in a draw, including two of the last three in Bologna.
🚩 Bologna vs Sassuolo Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.8 corners for Bologna and 4.5 for Sassuolo, for an expected total of 10.3. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 69% · Over 10.5: 45%.
How Bologna and Sassuolo Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Bologna vs Sassuolo Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Bolognalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Sassuololast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Bologna's recent form is mixed, with three losses and two wins in their last five, but their only league outing ended in a narrow 0-1 defeat. Sassuolo have alternated wins and losses, winning their most recent match against Torino after a close defeat at Atalanta. Both teams have shown some attacking promise but lack consistency in the final third.
Bologna vs Sassuolo — Last 2 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: Bologna vs Sassuolo
The head-to-head record is balanced, with four draws in the last ten meetings and Bologna holding a slight edge at home. Recent matches in Bologna have been competitive, with a 1-1 draw and a 4-2 win for the hosts. Both teams have found the net in six of the last ten encounters.
Bologna vs Sassuolo Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Bologna wins
4
Draws
2
Sassuolo wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Bologna vs Sassuolo
The draw presents the clearest value at odds of 3.3, with the model's 33% probability outpacing the market's 30.3% implied chance. Other main markets, such as under 2.5 goals and BTTS, show only marginal or negative edge, reflecting the market's alignment with the statistical base rates.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Bologna vs Sassuolo
- ⚠️Both teams have played only one or two league matches, so season averages are based on small samples.
- ⚠️Pre-season friendlies are of limited predictive value due to squad rotation and experimental lineups.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups are not confirmed at time of analysis.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Bologna 1–1 SassuoloThe model calls a 1-1 draw as the most probable outcome, with the strongest supporting data point being the frequency of draws in recent head-to-heads and the similar early-season scoring rates for both sides. The main risk to this projection is Sassuolo's higher shot output translating into a more clinical attacking display than their recent averages suggest.
Bologna vs Sassuolo: Common Questions
Who will win Bologna vs Sassuolo?
The model gives Bologna a 41% chance to win, Sassuolo a 26% chance, and the draw a 33% probability. The most likely result is a 1-1 draw based on both teams' recent scoring and concession rates.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Sassuolo?
There is a 54% probability that both teams will score, with Sassuolo involved in BTTS in four of their last five matches and Bologna in two of five. Defences on both sides have shown some vulnerability early in the season.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Bologna vs Sassuolo?
The model estimates a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals, with Bologna's only league match going under and Sassuolo's matches trending higher but from a small sample. The edge is marginal, so caution is advised.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Bologna vs Sassuolo: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.