Senegal vs Iraq Prediction
Senegal vs Iraq: Model Predicts Tight Win for Lions of Teranga at World Cup 2026
FIFA World Cup 2026 · World
Senegal
Full Time
5 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 0
Iraq
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 4.5
Match Result
8.1/10Senegal Sweep Aside Iraq with Dominant 5-0 World Cup Display in Toronto
Senegal delivered a statement performance at BMO Field, dismantling Iraq 5-0 in a one-sided World Cup encounter. The Lions of Teranga seized control early, with Sadio Mané opening the scoring in the 4th minute, setting the tone for a relentless attacking display. Despite Iraq's efforts to stay organized, Senegal's superior quality and intensity overwhelmed their opponents, who struggled to cope with wave after wave of pressure. Senegal's attacking trio proved too much for Iraq, as goals continued to flow in the second half, with the West Africans netting four more times. Iraq's misery was compounded by a second-half red card, leaving them further exposed. The gulf in class was reflected in the statistics: Senegal boasted 69% possession, fired 28 shots (12 on target), and forced 12 corners, while Iraq managed just a single shot on target and were pinned back for much of the contest.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 0
Actual
5 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/1 hit
Key Moments
4' — Goal
Sadio Mané opens the scoring for Senegal, setting the tone for the match.
56' — Goal
Senegal double their lead, breaking Iraq's resistance early in the second half.
59' — Goal
Senegal make it 3-0, effectively sealing the result.
71' — Goal
Fourth goal for Senegal, as their dominance continues.
82' — Goal
Senegal cap off their display with a fifth goal.
Second half' — Red Card
Iraq reduced to ten men, further limiting their ability to respond.
Senegal
Senegal were in imperious form, dictating play from the outset and never allowing Iraq a foothold. Their midfield trio controlled possession and tempo, while the front line—led by Sadio Mané—constantly threatened. The Lions of Teranga's pressing and movement off the ball created numerous openings, and their finishing was clinical, especially after the break. Defensively, Senegal were rarely troubled, limiting Iraq to just six shots and one on target.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Iraq
Iraq endured a torrid evening in Toronto, unable to match Senegal's intensity or technical quality. Set up in a 4-2-3-1, they struggled to retain possession (31%) and were forced deep by Senegal's relentless pressure. Their attacking forays were rare and largely ineffective, with only one shot on target all match. Discipline also faltered, as Iraq finished with ten men following a second-half red card, further compounding their woes.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Senegal lined up in a fluid 4-3-3, using their midfield trio to control the tempo and stretch Iraq across the pitch. Their wide forwards, notably Sarr and Mané, exploited the flanks, while overlapping fullbacks provided additional width. The high press forced turnovers and kept Iraq pinned in their own half, reflected in the 69% possession and 28 shots. Iraq's 4-2-3-1 was intended to provide midfield solidity, but they were outnumbered and outmaneuvered, unable to transition effectively. Substitutions did little to alter the tactical landscape, with Senegal's relentless pressure and Iraq's numerical disadvantage after the red card making any comeback impossible. The set-piece threat was also evident, as Senegal won 12 corners and maintained attacking momentum throughout.
Turning Point
Senegal's second goal in the 56th minute shattered Iraq's resistance and opened the floodgates for a dominant second half.
Man of the Match
Sadio Mané
Set the tone with an early goal and led the line with relentless energy and quality.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.85
Expected goals · model says 0.65
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS: Yes
40%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 2-0 · 1-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Senegal vs Iraq Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Senegal vs Iraq?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
The Case For This Senegal vs Iraq Prediction
Senegal enter this Group Stage clash against Iraq as clear favorites, backed by a significant Elo rating advantage and a more potent attacking lineup. The model gives Senegal a 66% chance of victory, with Iraq's upset hopes rated at just 12%. The most likely scoreline is a narrow 1-0 win for Senegal, reflecting both teams' recent defensive solidity and Iraq's struggles in front of goal. Despite their attacking edge, Senegal's expected-goals output isn't explosive, suggesting Iraq's defense could keep things competitive for stretches. The model expects a measured contest, with the probability of both teams scoring below 41% and the under 2.5 goals outcome slightly favored. For Iraq, finding the net will be challenging against a disciplined Senegalese backline.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
xG factor — Senegal 1.45× · Iraq 0.76×
- →Senegal's attack factor (1.45) and finishing quality outpace Iraq's (0.76)
Defence
Suppression — Senegal 0.92× · Iraq 1.09×
- →Iraq's defense (1.09 suppression) is leakier than Senegal's (0.92)
- →Recent momentum boosts Senegal's attack (1.135) and tightens their defense (0.865)
Match Context
- →Senegal hold a +271 Elo rating edge (1878 vs 1607), ranking 17th to Iraq's 63rd
- →Model's final expected goals: Senegal 1.87, Iraq 0.66
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
xG Attack Strength
Top-11 expected-goals output, adjusted for finishing efficiency and chance quality. 1.00× is the tournament median.
Senegal
1.45×Top-11 xG
133
Finishing
1.20×
Chance qual.
1.14×
- B. Dia F24.6 xG
- P. P. Keny F14.9 xG
- I. Soumaré F14.7 xG
- A. Diao F11.8 xG
- P. M. Fall F11.4 xG
Iraq
0.76×Top-11 xG
40
Finishing
1.20×
Chance qual.
0.88×
- A. Al-Hamadi F11.6 xG
- M. Farji M6.8 xG
- A. Hussein F4.7 xG
- A. Jasim M3.6 xG
- K. Yakob M3.0 xG
Defensive Suppression
Defender & midfield ball-winning (tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks). Higher = more suppression of the opponent's attack.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
1.84 · 0.76
From xG
1.72 · 1.07
Blended
1.87 · 0.66
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Senegal attacking form lifts their goals ×1.14; Iraq's cold attack trims their goals ×0.86.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Senegal goals, columns = Iraq goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.9%
2-0
13.9%
1-1
9.8%
How the Model Reached This
The model starts by weighing the Elo ratings, where Senegal's +271-point advantage translates into a strong baseline expectation for a home win. This is then refined by looking at each team's attacking and defensive profiles: Senegal's attack factor of 1.45, bolstered by efficient finishing and high-quality chances, is set against Iraq's more modest 0.76. Defensively, Senegal also suppresses opponents better (0.92 vs Iraq's 1.09). Recent form is factored in through momentum multipliers. Senegal's recent matches show a hot attack (1.135) and a defense that's conceding less than average (0.865), while Iraq's attack is underperforming (0.865) and their defense is slightly improved (0.919). These adjustments nudge Senegal's expected goals up to 1.87 and Iraq's down to 0.66. The final step uses a Poisson model to simulate the most probable scorelines, with 1-0 and 2-0 for Senegal topping the list.
Where the Model Sees Value: Senegal vs Iraq(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 4.5
The model gives a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals, while the odds imply just 22%, creating strong positive expected value even though the most likely scorelines are low.
Read more ↓
More World Cup Predictions
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Senegal vs Iraq
Comparing model probabilities to bookmaker odds, there is no clear value on the 1X2 market, as Senegal's win odds (1.17) closely reflect the model's 66% win probability. However, the model sees value in 'Both Teams To Score: No', with a 59% model probability against odds of 1.14, and particularly in 'Over 2.5 Goals', where the model's probability (46%) is much higher than the implied odds (4.5, or 22%). This makes the over a strong value play despite the model's conservative expected scoreline.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Senegal vs Iraq Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Senegallast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Iraqlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Senegal come into this fixture with strong recent form, winning four of their last five and averaging 1.8 goals scored per match. Their defense has also been solid, conceding just 0.8 goals per game and keeping three clean sheets. Iraq, meanwhile, have struggled for consistency, with only one win in their last three and an average of just 0.8 goals scored per match. Both teams have limited recent international data, but Senegal's momentum is notably positive.
Senegal vs Iraq — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 3.0 conceded/game
🚩 Senegal vs Iraq Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6 corners for Senegal and 3.8 for Iraq, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 65% · Over 10.5: 40%.
What History Says: Senegal vs Iraq
There is no significant head-to-head history between Senegal and Iraq at major tournaments or in recent years. This lack of precedent means the model relies heavily on current form and underlying team strengths rather than direct matchup data.
Senegal vs Iraq Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
1
Senegal wins
0
Draws
0
Iraq wins
Things to Watch: Senegal vs Iraq
- ⚠️International form data is often sparse and less predictive than club data.
- ⚠️Tournament group dynamics may influence team selection and motivation.
- ⚠️Model probabilities are authoritative; actual match conditions may vary.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Senegal vs Iraq: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 5 June 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.