Sevilla vs Alaves Predictions
La Liga · Spain
Sevilla
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Alaves
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.3(+12% edge)
Match Result
6.4/10Sevilla Frustrated by Resolute Alaves in Goalless Stalemate
Sevilla and Alaves played out a tense 0-0 draw at the Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, with neither side able to find a breakthrough despite periods of pressure and several half-chances. The hosts dominated possession, holding 60% of the ball and registering 13 shots, but managed just three on target as Alaves’s disciplined back three and midfield shield held firm. Alaves, meanwhile, posed sporadic threats on the counter but were similarly blunt in attack, forcing only two shots on target from their nine attempts. The match was characterized by Sevilla’s patient build-up play against a compact Alaves side set up in a 3-5-2 formation. Both teams struggled for clear chances, with fouls and tactical discipline disrupting the flow. A flurry of bookings—three for Alaves and one for Sevilla—reflected the physical nature of the contest. Ultimately, neither side could find the decisive moment, and the spoils were shared in Seville.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
0 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/1 hit
Key Moments
23'' — Yellow Card
N. Tenaglia (Alaves) booked for a late challenge, setting the tone for a physical contest.
38'' — Yellow Card
Antonio Blanco (Alaves) shown yellow for persistent fouling in midfield.
56'' — Yellow Card
G. Suazo (Sevilla) cautioned after a tactical foul to stop a counter.
71'' — Yellow Card
Pablo Ibáñez (Alaves) booked as Sevilla pressed for a winner.
Sevilla
Sevilla controlled much of the match, enjoying 60% possession and dictating the tempo from midfield. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed for width and numbers in advanced areas, but the final ball was often lacking, and they struggled to convert their dominance into clear-cut chances. Despite firing 13 shots, only three tested Sivera in the Alaves goal, a testament to both wasteful finishing and resolute defending from the visitors. Defensively, Sevilla were largely untroubled, with the back four and goalkeeper O. Vlachodimos rarely called into action. However, their inability to break down a well-organized Alaves side will be a concern, especially given their territorial advantage.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Alaves
Alaves executed their game plan effectively, setting up in a compact 3-5-2 that frustrated Sevilla and limited their opportunities. Though they ceded possession, they remained organized, making 19 fouls to break up play and picking up three yellow cards in the process. Their defensive trio, anchored by N. Valentini, was particularly impressive in repelling crosses and blocking shots. Going forward, Alaves looked to exploit spaces on the counter but lacked the quality in the final third to trouble Sevilla’s defense consistently. Their two shots on target were comfortably dealt with, but their tactical discipline ensured a valuable away point.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Sevilla lined up in a 4-2-3-1, seeking to dominate possession and use their full-backs to provide width. The double pivot of Fofana and Agoumé allowed the attacking trio of Vargas, Isaac, and Correia to push forward, but Alaves’s compact 3-5-2 formation absorbed pressure effectively. Alaves’s wing-backs dropped deep to form a back five out of possession, making it difficult for Sevilla to find space between the lines. Alaves relied on physicality and tactical fouling to disrupt Sevilla’s rhythm, as evidenced by their 19 fouls and three bookings. Their midfielders tracked runners diligently, while up front, Toni Martínez and L. Boyé worked hard to press but received little service. Set pieces provided rare moments of threat for both sides, but neither could capitalize.
Turning Point
The run of yellow cards for Alaves between the 23rd and 71st minute underscored their commitment to defensive solidity and ultimately stifled Sevilla’s attacking momentum.
Man of the Match
N. Valentini
Commanded the Alaves defense with composure, making crucial blocks and organizing the back line to secure a clean sheet.
Sevilla vs Alaves: Match Preview
Sevilla approach this fixture in sixth place, having taken 17 points from 10 matches with a perfectly balanced goal record (16 scored, 16 conceded). Their recent form is steady rather than spectacular, with two wins from the last three and a home record that reads 3-0-2. Alaves trail by five points in seventh, but their away form is a concern: no wins in four, with just three goals scored and five conceded. Both sides are in the thick of the mid-table pack, with neither under obvious pressure nor chasing the leaders.
Statistically, this is a contest between two sides whose strengths and weaknesses largely offset. Sevilla’s attack has averaged 2.0 goals over the last five, but their defence has been breached twice per game in that span. Alaves, meanwhile, have managed only 0.6 goals per match in their last five, yet remain compact defensively (1.2 against). The under 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Sevilla’s home games and 75% of Alaves’ away matches, and both teams have kept clean sheets in 30% of their league outings. Set-piece threat is modest, with both sides averaging under three corners per game recently.
Given these rates, the model expects a cautious opening before the game opens up in the second half. The most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw, reflecting both sides’ average attacking output and defensive solidity. The H2H record supports this, with four draws in the last ten meetings and a general trend towards low-to-mid scoring matches.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.00
Over 2.5 Goals
39%
BTTS: Yes
45%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Sevilla vs Alaves Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Sevilla vs Alaves that most previews miss.
- 1Alaves have failed to win any of their four away league matches this season, scoring just 0.75 goals per away game.
- 2Sevilla’s home matches average exactly 2.8 goals, but their last five overall have seen both teams score in three instances.
- 3Four of the last ten H2H meetings have ended in a draw, and only three of those ten produced more than three goals.
Who do you think wins: Sevilla vs Alaves?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Sevilla vs Alaves(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.28
The model assigns a 34% probability to the draw, above the 30.3% implied by odds of 3.3, with both teams showing mid-table scoring and concession rates (Sevilla 1.6 for/1.6 against per game, Alaves 1.4/1.1) and a high frequency of draws in the H2H (4 of last 10).
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The Case For This Sevilla vs Alaves Prediction
Sevilla and Alaves meet in a fixture defined by statistical balance rather than extremes. Sevilla sit sixth with 17 points from 10, but their +0 goal difference (16 scored, 16 conceded) and a home record of 3W-0D-2L with 7 for, 7 against, suggest a side whose strengths and weaknesses cancel out. Alaves, just behind in seventh, have 12 points and a slightly positive goal difference, but are winless away (0W-2D-2L, 3 for, 5 against), indicating a conservative approach on the road. The matchup is shaped by mid-table attacking output and defensive solidity. Sevilla average 1.6 goals both for and against per game; Alaves come in at 1.4 for, 1.1 against, with a notably low away scoring rate (0.75 per away match). Over the last five, Sevilla’s attack has found some rhythm (2.0 goals per game, no blanks), but their defence remains porous (2.0 conceded per game). Alaves, meanwhile, have struggled to create (0.6 goals scored per last five), but do not collapse defensively (1.2 conceded per game in that span). Both sides have a 30% clean sheet rate this season, and the under 2.5 has landed in 60% of Sevilla’s home games and 75% of Alaves’ away matches. Given these rates, the model expects a low-to-mid scoring environment, with neither side likely to dominate. H2H history supports this: four of the last ten meetings have ended level, and only three have produced more than three goals. The likeliest outcome is a 1-1 draw, with both sides’ average output and defensive records converging, and a slight lean towards a cagey first half before the match opens up after the break.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Sevilla average 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game, with a symmetrical home record (7 for, 7 against in 5 home matches).
- →Alaves are winless away (0W-2D-2L), scoring just 3 and conceding 5 in four away fixtures.
- →Both teams have a 30% season clean sheet rate, and both have seen BTTS in 3 of their last 5 matches.
🚩 Sevilla vs Alaves Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.3 corners for Sevilla and 4 for Alaves, for an expected total of 8.3. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (67%). Over 8.5: 45% · Over 10.5: 22%.
How Sevilla and Alaves Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Sevilla vs Alaves Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Sevillalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Alaveslast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Sevilla have stabilised after a mixed start, winning two of their last three and averaging two goals per game in their last five, but remain defensively vulnerable. Alaves are winless in their last five (DLLDL), struggling for goals but keeping most games close, with only one clean sheet in that span.
Sevilla vs Alaves — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: Sevilla vs Alaves
The head-to-head record is balanced: four draws in the last ten, and only one of the last five meetings saw more than three goals. Neither side has dominated, with tight scorelines (1-1, 2-1, 2-2) recurring.
Sevilla vs Alaves Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Sevilla wins
4
Draws
4
Alaves wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Sevilla vs Alaves
The model’s strongest value edge is on the draw at odds of 3.3, with an estimated probability of 34% versus the market’s 30%. Other markets, such as under 2.5 goals, are closely aligned with bookmaker prices, offering little value.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Sevilla vs Alaves
- ⚠️Both teams have shown some volatility in recent form, with Sevilla conceding heavily against top sides and Alaves struggling to score.
- ⚠️No major injuries are reported, but lineups are not confirmed at this stage.
- ⚠️Model confidence is moderate due to the mid-table nature and lack of extreme signals in either direction.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Sevilla 1–1 AlavesThe model calls a 1-1 draw as the most statistically likely outcome, driven by both teams’ mid-table scoring and concession rates and a strong historical draw tendency in this fixture. The clearest risk is Sevilla’s recent attacking uptick, which could tilt the balance if Alaves’ away defence falters.
Sevilla vs Alaves: Common Questions
Who will win Sevilla vs Alaves?
The model gives Sevilla a 39% chance to win, Alaves a 27% chance, and a draw a 34% probability. Both teams have mid-table records and the H2H is notably balanced, so the draw is the value pick.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Alaves?
Both teams to score is rated at 48%, with both sides averaging around 1.5 goals for and against per game and three of the last five H2H seeing goals at both ends.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in Sevilla vs Alaves?
Under 2.5 goals is rated at 59% probability, reflecting Sevilla’s 60% under rate at home and Alaves’ 75% under rate away, as well as both teams’ recent low-scoring trends.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Sevilla vs Alaves: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.